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Topic: CFP Rankings heading into Thanksgiving Weekend

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medinabuckeye1

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CFP Rankings heading into Thanksgiving Weekend
« on: November 24, 2021, 10:56:42 AM »

  • 11-0 Georgia:  @ GaTech, vs #3 Bama in SECCG
  • 10-1 Ohio State:  @ #5 Michigan, vs #14 UW, #16 IA, or MN in the B1GCG if they beat Michigan
  • 10-1 Alabama:  @ Auburn, vs #1 UGA in SECCG
  • 11-0 Cincy:  @ ECU, vs #24 Houston in AACCG
  • 10-1 Michigan:  vs #2 tOSU, vs #14 UW, #16 IA, or MN in the B1GCG if they beat tOSU
  • 10-1 Notre Dame:  @ Stanford
  • 10-1 Oklahoma State:  vs #10 OU, vs either #10 OU or #8 Baylor in B12CG
  • 9-2 Baylor:  vs TxTech, vs OkSU in B12CG if they and OkSU both win this week
  • 9-2 Ole Miss:  @MsSt
  • 10-1 Oklahoma:  @ #7 OkSU, vs #7 OkSU in B12CG if they win Bedlam or if Baylor loses
  • 9-2 Oregon:  vs OrSU, vs Utah in P12CG if they beat OrSU
  • 9-2 Michigan State:  vs PSU
  • 9-2 BYU:  @ USC
  • 8-3 Wisconsin:  @MN, vs #2 tOSU or #5 M in B1GCG if they win or if IA loses and PU wins
  • 8-3 aTm:  @ LSU
  • 9-2 Iowa:  @ UNL, vs #2 tOSU or #5 M in B1GCG if they win and UW loses
  • 9-2 Pitt:  @ Cuse, vs #18 Wake, #23 Clemson, or #20 NCST in ACCCG
  • 9-2 Wake:  @ BC, vs #17 Pitt if they win
  • 8-3 Utah:  vs Colorado, vs #11 Oregon, OrSU, or WSU in P12CG
  • 8-3 NCST:  vs UNC, vs #17 Pitt in ACCCG if they win and Wake loses
  • 10-1 SDSU:  vs Boise, vs MWC in MWCCG if they win or if Fresno loses
  • 11-0 UTSA:  @UNT, vs CUSA in CUSACG
  • 8-3 Clemson:  @ USC-e, vs #17 Pitt in ACCCG if Wake and NCST both lose
  • 10-1 Houston:  @ UCONN, vs #4 Cincy in AACCG
  • 7-4 Arkansas:  vs Mizzou

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: CFP Rankings heading into Thanksgiving Weekend
« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2021, 11:07:41 AM »
As I see it the following teams control their own destiny:

  • #1 UGA:  They win out they are a 13-0 SEC Champion and #1.  
  • #2 tOSU:  They win out they are a 12-1 B1G Champion and no worse than #2.  
  • #3 Bama:  They win out they are a 12-1 SEC Champion and no worse than #2 (almost certainly #1 but MAYBE not if they win close ones over Auburn and UGA while tOSU rolls).  
  • #5 Michigan:  They win out they are a 12-1 B1G Champion and no worse than #3 (could be behind UGA/Bama).  
  • #7 OkSU:  They win out they are a 12-1 B12 Champion and in.  
  • #10 OU:  They win out they are a 12-1 B12 Champion and in.  


What the others need:
  • #4 Cincinnati:  Obviously they need to win out to have a chance then they just need to hope that the committee doesn't realize that they played a bunch of teams that my local HS would probably beat and for good measure it would help immensely if the B1G-W Champion wins the B1GCG and/or if the Oklahoma schools both lose another game.  Also it would help if UGA throttles Bama in the SECCG.  
  • #6 Notre Dame:  They need what Cincy needs plus a Cincy loss.  
  • #8 Baylor:  They could make it but they need OkSU to knock off OU in Bedlam then they'll also need some additional help in the form of a Cincy loss and/or a B1G-W team winning the B1GCG and it would also help them immensely if UGA throttles Bama in the SECCG.  
  • #9 Ole Miss:  No chance.  Even with absolute chaos they can't get in because they'd still be a 2-loss non-Champion.  
  • #11 Oregon:  Maybe with a LOT of chaos.  

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Cincydawg

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Re: CFP Rankings heading into Thanksgiving Weekend
« Reply #2 on: November 24, 2021, 11:13:54 AM »
Others should definitely hope for a UGA blow out.  For some reason, I do as well.

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: CFP Rankings heading into Thanksgiving Weekend
« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2021, 11:16:38 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 24, 2021, 11:13:54 AM
Others should definitely hope for a UGA blow out.  For some reason, I do as well.
LoL.  An Auburn win in the Iron Bowl combined with an UGA win in the SECCG would be even better if you are one of those teams needing Bama to drop out.  Obviously the worst case scenario for them would be for UGA/Bama to both finish 12-1.  
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: CFP Rankings heading into Thanksgiving Weekend
« Reply #4 on: November 24, 2021, 11:33:19 AM »
My picks

  • Georgia (beats Bama)
  • OSU/M (winner beats B1G W in Indy)
  • Cincinnati (wins out)
  • Notre Dame (wins out)


/Oklahoma loses at least once to OSU2. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: CFP Rankings heading into Thanksgiving Weekend
« Reply #5 on: November 24, 2021, 11:42:26 AM »
In a universe where UGA beats Bama:

Ohio State or Michigan (IFF they win the CG, which is probable)

Cincy (IFF they win out)

OkSU/OU if they win out.

ND as alternative.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: CFP Rankings heading into Thanksgiving Weekend
« Reply #6 on: November 24, 2021, 12:01:16 PM »
If UGA loses close to Bama, they're still in regardless of anything Cinci/ND/OU/OkSU do, right?
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: CFP Rankings heading into Thanksgiving Weekend
« Reply #7 on: November 24, 2021, 12:11:44 PM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 24, 2021, 12:01:16 PM
If UGA loses close to Bama, they're still in regardless of anything Cinci/ND/OU/OkSU do, right?
Not only that, but they only drop the Dawgs to 3 in order to avoid a SECCG rematch in the semifinals. 
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: CFP Rankings heading into Thanksgiving Weekend
« Reply #8 on: November 24, 2021, 12:32:40 PM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on November 24, 2021, 12:11:44 PM
Not only that, but they only drop the Dawgs to 3 in order to avoid a SECCG rematch in the semifinals.
Oh I know they'd figure that out. If they can't justify Georgia at 3 then they'll move them to 4 and say that OSU should be #1 and Bama #2... 

They won't match up SEC in the semis. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: CFP Rankings heading into Thanksgiving Weekend
« Reply #9 on: November 24, 2021, 12:46:25 PM »
It could hinge on the nature of the loss of course.  If UGA loses how they have lost in previous games with Bama, they would not drop out (presuming they beat tech).

But I think UGA is "in".  
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Cincydawg

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Re: CFP Rankings heading into Thanksgiving Weekend
« Reply #10 on: November 24, 2021, 01:11:28 PM »


Were I to rank them myself based on power alone, I'd have OSU #2, as they do, then it gets hazy.  Michigan is the same as OSU in effect.  Do I put ND ahead of Cincy?   Do I drop down to OkState?  I think I do.  They are too low.  Then I have ND or Cincy.  I know H2H, but who would win today?  ND I think.

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FearlessF

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Re: CFP Rankings heading into Thanksgiving Weekend
« Reply #11 on: November 24, 2021, 01:21:59 PM »
I think so as well cause, SEC

but, the committee could  go back and examine the entire Dawg schedule and decide their best win is over a 4 loss Arkansas team

of course their lone loss would be to an impressive team
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Cincydawg

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Re: CFP Rankings heading into Thanksgiving Weekend
« Reply #12 on: November 24, 2021, 01:27:34 PM »
Their best win technically would be over #23 Clemson, and then #25 Arky.    Other than Clemson, every win was by a substantial margin.  But they had a pretty light schedule.  I blame Florida for that.  

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Cincydawg

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Re: CFP Rankings heading into Thanksgiving Weekend
« Reply #13 on: November 24, 2021, 01:30:47 PM »
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