I think you are the first person I’ve heard say that if WVU and Ohio St win out WVU would probably be in over them.
I kinda think that helmet bias Utee talks about might creep in.
First, we have yet to see concrete evidence of helmet bias in the committee's CFP inclusion and until we do I will assume that we will not.
As to this hypothetical:
- Assume both win out, and
- For the sake of simplicity also assume that Bama, Clemson, and Notre Dame win out and that the P12 Champion has at least two losses.
Obviously the top three would be Bama, Clemson, and Notre Dame in that order and the fourth spot would be between Ohio State and West Virginia without any other serious contenders for the final playoff spot.
The losses:
West Virginia's was a 16 point loss on the road to a (currently) 6-3 and #16 Iowa State team. The Mountaineers were outgained on the ground 244-52 and through the air 254-100 in that game.
Ohio State's was a 29 point loss on the road to a (currently) 5-5 Purdue team. The Buckeyes were outgained on the ground 161-76 but outgained the Boilermakers 470-378 through the air.
This favors West Virginia but probably not by much and I'm not sure that it maters anyway. The committee doesn't seem to care much about "bad losses" so I'm really not sure that it matters at all. Also, one could argue that even though the Ohio State loss score was more lopsided the West Virginia loss game was more lopsided
Wins over currently ranked teams and teams that could realistically be ranked by the end of the year:
West Virginia:
- #6 Oklahoma at home TBD.
- #15 Texas on the road by a point.
- nr 5-5 Baylor could conceivably finish ranked if they win out (vTCU, vTxTech).
- nr 5-5 TxTech could conceivably finish ranked if they win out (@KSU, vBaylor).
- B12CG opponent. This team would finish with at least three losses.
Obviously the third and fourth are mutually exclusive so WVU would finish with no more than four wins over ranked teams.
Ohio State:
- #4 Michigan at home, TBD.
- #14 Penn State on the road by a point.
- #22 Northwestern in the B1GCG, TBD.
- nr 6-4 Michigan State could conceivably finish ranked if they win out (@UNL, vRU).
- nr 5-5 Indiana would finish ranked if they won out (@M, vPU) but that would be bad for Ohio State because it would diminish both their best win and their loss.
Ohio State could finish with no more than four wins over ranked teams but it could be as few as one (if PSU loses to Maryland and Northwestern loses again before the B1GCG and MSU loses to UNL).
I think that at this point it is WAY to close to call. WVU's two wins over OU would help them a lot especially because while WVU was beating a very good OU team in the B12CG Ohio State could be beating a 6-6 Wildcat squad in the B1GCG. The flip side of that is that WVU most likely has to beat OU twice which would give OU three losses and make WVU's best win not as good as Ohio State's win over a 10-2 Michigan.
Right now the one point wins over #14/#15 PSU/TX are nearly identical on paper but that could change down the stretch if one of them goes 2-0 while the other goes 0-2.
I think it is a lot more likely that MSU will finish ranked than it is that the Baylor/TxTech winner will finish ranked and that would obviously help Ohio State's case.
Bottom line, it is too early to tell. In a best case scenario for WVU they would have a much stronger case than Ohio State but in a best case scenario for the Buckeyes they would have a much stronger case than the Mountaineers.
Best case scenario for WVU (within this hypothetical):
- Texas wins out and beats OU for the B12CG slot. WVU thus finishes with wins over 10-2 OU and twice over 9-4 Texas.
- Northwestern tanks and loses to both MN and IL such that they hit Indy at 6-6.
- MSU loses to Nebraska and finishes unranked.