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Topic: CFP Format- The Best 5 seeds in Recorded History?

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Kris60

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CFP Format- The Best 5 seeds in Recorded History?
« on: July 23, 2024, 12:17:50 AM »
I was on the WVU board and someone made a point I hadn’t heard raised or thought of myself.

Being the 5th seed and not getting a top 4 bye could be a good thing.  Now, obviously, the big disadvantage is having to play an extra game, take a chance on losing, and  expose key players to injuries.  Despite that, being the 5th seed might not be that bad.

The 5th seed, at least under the current format, will almost be guaranteed to host  the G5 representative every year in the first round.  If you have to play an extra game that’s about as good a draw as you can get.  If they win that one they then move on to play the 4 seed at a neutral site.

The 4 seed, most years, will be the lowest rated P4 conference champion (it could occasionally be the G5 champion).  With the conference realignment I think a lot of us could see the 4 seed many times being the Big 12 champion.  And while they might be the 4 seed in the playoffs there is a good chance they would actually finish 10-15 in the final CFP poll and be an underdog to the 5 seed on a neutral field.

There will probably be years the 5 seed is a bigger favorite with an easier matchup  in its QF game than the 1, 2, or 3 seeds are in theirs.  Just something I thought was interesting. 
« Last Edit: July 24, 2024, 01:54:30 PM by Kris60 »
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #1 on: July 23, 2024, 12:46:13 AM »
Quote from: Kris60 on July 23, 2024, 12:17:50 AM
I was on the WVU board and someone made a point I hadn’t heard raised or thought of myself.

Being the 5th seed and not getting a top 4 bye could be a good thing.  Now, obviously, the big disadvantage is having to play an extra game, take a chance on losing, and  expose key players to injuries.  Despite that, being the 5th seed might not be that bad.

The 5th seed, at least under the current format, will almost be guaranteed to host  the G5 representative every year in the first round.  If you have to play an extra game that’s about as good a draw as you can get.  If they win that one they then move on to play the 4 seed at a neutral site.

The 4 seed, most years, will be the lowest rated P4 conference champion (it could occasionally be the G5 champion).  With the conference realignment I think a lot of us could see the 4 seed many times being the Big 12 champion.  And while they might be the 4 seed in the playoffs there is a good chance they would actually finish 10-15 in the final CFP poll and be an underdog to the 5 seed on a neutral field.

There will probably be years the 5 seed is a bigger favorite with an easier matchup  in its QF game than the 1, 2, or 3 seeds are in theirs.  Just something I thought was interesting.
I conditionally agree, but it depends on how they handle seeding.

In addition to what you said, #5 is going to be the #1 ranked non-champion and that is usually going to be a REALLY good team. Bama in the kick-6 year, for example.

Seeding, IMHO, should be reset after each round.
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Kris60

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Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #2 on: July 23, 2024, 12:56:48 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 23, 2024, 12:46:13 AM
I conditionally agree, but it depends on how they handle seeding.

In addition to what you said, #5 is going to be the #1 ranked non-champion and that is usually going to be a REALLY good team. Bama in the kick-6 year, for example.

Seeding, IMHO, should be reset after each round.
Yeah, most years the 5 seed is going to be a big boy.  Like a really big boy.  Bama, UGA, Michigan, Ohio St.  Those kind of names.
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Mdot21

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Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #3 on: July 23, 2024, 01:15:01 AM »
Quote from: Kris60 on July 23, 2024, 12:56:48 AM
Yeah, most years the 5 seed is going to be a big boy.  Like a really big boy.  Bama, UGA, Michigan, Ohio St.  Those kind of names.
Nah Connor Stallions and Jeem are gone...we gonna suck now without knowing every play before it happens and without psycho autistic Jeem pushing the team forward with his weirdness. At least that's what all the Ohio State peeps tell me. 
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #4 on: July 23, 2024, 01:21:49 AM »
Quote from: Kris60 on July 23, 2024, 12:17:50 AM
I was on the WVU board and someone made a point I hadn’t heard raised or thought of myself.

Being the 5th seed and not getting a top 4 bye could be a good thing.  Now, obviously, the big disadvantage is having to play an extra game, take a chance on losing, and  expose key players to injuries.  Despite that, being the 5th seed might not be that bad.
If it's not better than being a top-4 seed, then what are we talking about here?  That it's better than being the 6th seed?
Very well, I agree.
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Kris60

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Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #5 on: July 23, 2024, 07:29:10 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 23, 2024, 01:21:49 AM
If it's not better than being a top-4 seed, then what are we talking about here?  That it's better than being the 6th seed?
Very well, I agree.
I think you could see situations where the 1, 2, and 3 seeds are pretty envious of the Quarterfinal draw of the 5 seed and think playing an extra game at home against a G5 team to get that QF opponent might not be such a bad deal.
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Cincydawg

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Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #6 on: July 23, 2024, 07:36:53 AM »
I agree with the potential advantages and disadvantages.  Take last year, FSU or UGA would have been a five seed, playing Podunk U at home.  UGA or an unwounded FSU would have their starters out early in the third probably.  Nice tune up with some possibility of a key injury.  Then you go to a "neutral site" to play #4 who could well be some 10-3 Big 12 champion who perhaps is a "TCU" kind of program.  If you win that one of course it gets real.
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FearlessF

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Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2024, 07:45:26 AM »
the only better spot is to be the #4 seed or #1 seed 
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bayareabadger

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Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2024, 07:47:29 AM »
Yeah, it’s an interesting quirk. Sort of similar to the 2017 Bama team that was really, really good, but via schedule quirks was better than its seed and caught a first rounder much worse than its seed. 
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Kris60

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Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #9 on: July 23, 2024, 08:28:12 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 23, 2024, 07:36:53 AM
I agree with the potential advantages and disadvantages.  Take last year, FSU or UGA would have been a five seed, playing Podunk U at home.  UGA or an unwounded FSU would have their starters out early in the third probably.  Nice tune up with some possibility of a key injury.  Then you go to a "neutral site" to play #4 who could well be some 10-3 Big 12 champion who perhaps is a "TCU" kind of program.  If you win that one of course it gets real.
It’s hard to go back at previous years to prove the point because the conferences were constructed differently.  You have to project forward.  But it isn’t hard to imagine a scenario like this.

1. Georgia 13-0 (CFP rank #1)
2. Michigan 12-1 (CFP rank #2)
3. Clemson 13-0 (CFP rank #3)
4. Ok St 10-3 (CFP rank #15)
5. Alabama 12-1 (CFP rank #4)
6. Ohio St 12-1 (CFP rank #5)
7. Oklahoma 11-1 (CFP rank #6)
8. Oregon 11-1 (CFP rank #7)
.
.
.
12. James Madison 12-1 (CFP rank #23)

You think there is a possibility Georgia, Michigan, and Clemson are looking at Bama’s draw and thinking playing an extra game AT HOME against JMU might not be a bad trade off to get Ok St in the Quarters?  Maybe, maybe not, but it’s an interesting thought.
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Cincydawg

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Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #10 on: July 23, 2024, 08:32:31 AM »
That's a good example.  Interesting possibility, and perhaps they change it up again.  Perhaps.  Ha.
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Cincydawg

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Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #11 on: July 23, 2024, 08:35:12 AM »
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Cincydawg

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Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #12 on: July 23, 2024, 08:35:51 AM »
Note the "NO RESEEDING" comment they felt they needed to add.
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FearlessF

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Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #13 on: July 23, 2024, 08:36:17 AM »
I'd rather NOT play the extra game, but....... if ya can't get in the top 4, #5 is the best spot
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