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Topic: Questions

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Questions
« Reply #14 on: January 05, 2022, 12:39:44 PM »
i thought that was overtime coin toss winner. or was it beginning of game coin toss?
Pregame:

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/52-percent-of-nfl-teams-to-win-coin-toss-win-game

Through week 10 of the 2011 season, it was 52.1%. From 2008 to week 10 of 2011, it was 52.6%. 

Quote
And while the Saints are 7-3 and lead the NFC South despite coming up short every single time on what should be a 50-50 proposition, coin-toss statistics - yes, they do exist - show that the NFL team that won the pregame flip wound up winning 52.1 percent of the time through Week 10 this season, according to STATS LLC.

That's about the same as the 52.6 percent that STATS shows for coin-toss ''victories'' matching up with game victories since the start of the 2008 season, when the NFL changed the rules to allow the team that wins the toss to defer its choice until the second half.
Each season (at the time) was 32 teams, so 16 games per week, and 16 games per team per season, so 256 games in the regular season [I don't know if they include pre- or post-season games].

So that means that between the start of 2008 and week 10 of 2011, there should have been almost a 1000 game sample size (928, minus a few for 2011 bye weeks). 

That would be roughly 464 expected wins, and 488 actual wins, or 24 additional wins over 3 1/2 seasons. 

I'm not sure if that's a high enough deviation from the expected 50% to be statistically significant...




Cincydawg

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Re: Questions
« Reply #15 on: January 05, 2022, 01:07:11 PM »
I take it the figure is a bit over 50-50.  My Dawgs seem more likely to win when they win the toss, but I am sure my memory is hazy on it and they are more like this against similar teams.

I'm still pondering the RB splitting out and being covered by a LB issue.  I presume this usually means going empty, so you'd have maybe 3 WRs to the left and the RB split out right and perhaps a TE on the line able to run if not covered up.  So, five potential receivers, you'd better be in nickel I think.

The Michigan coverage on that play was actually pretty tight as I recall.  The pass was dropped in the bucket.

 

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