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Topic: Breaking up Bama: How to save college football?

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ALA2262

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Re: Breaking up Bama: How to save college football?
« Reply #182 on: January 21, 2021, 01:21:42 PM »
the Canes are going to be top 10 good?
#25 IF King is ready for Bama.



25. Miami Hurricanes
2020 record: 8-3 (7-2 ACC)
Projected returning starters: nine offense, seven defense, one special teams

Projected losses: DE Jaelan Phillips*, DE Quincy Roche*, DT Jonathan Ford, S Amari Carter, OT Jarrid Williams, TE Brevin Jordan, K Jose Borregales*
Key additions: DE Deandre Johnson, S Avantae Williams, DT Leonard Taylor, LB James Williams, QB Jake Garcia, WR Jacolby George, WR Romello Brinson
Outlook: The Hurricanes' 37-34 loss to Oklahoma State in the Cheez-It Bowl couldn't have gone much worse. Miami's defense was gutted for a second straight game: The Hurricanes surrendered 1,196 yards of offense and 99 points in the last eight quarters of the 2020 season. Worse, quarterback D'Eriq King suffered a torn ACL in the first half, only three days after announcing he was coming back for another season. He's hoping to be ready for the 2021 opener on Sept. 4 against Alabama in Atlanta.
Miami's defense had better improve dramatically before then, and it won't be easy with top pass-rushers Phillips and Roche leaving for the NFL. The Hurricanes added Johnson, a Tennessee transfer, to help replace them. Major upgrades are needed at linebacker, and the secondary needs to be more consistent. If King isn't ready for the start of next season, the Hurricanes probably aren't a top-25 team.



https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/30669807/the-2021-way-too-early-college-football-top-25
« Last Edit: January 21, 2021, 01:31:33 PM by ALA2262 »

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Breaking up Bama: How to save college football?
« Reply #183 on: January 21, 2021, 01:26:25 PM »
You got up at 11:30 so you could barely make it to your Noon class in the humanities building...
It's basically like building your credit - another hoop our society makes you jump through.  Personally, I think it's more impressive if someone makes it to age 40 without needing to borrow money. But I'm the idiot.
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Showing that you at least did that and got your degree maybe show that you were able to do something simple, but you did it with consistency over several years.  It's no different than simply making your payments on time.
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I'm not advocating for the system, just spelling out how it is.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Breaking up Bama: How to save college football?
« Reply #184 on: January 21, 2021, 02:00:00 PM »
I doubt most college degrees require above-average intelligence. 
My point was not that you needed above average intelligence to GET a degree, my point was that I think you need above average intelligence for the degree to be useful.  If you are say 25th percentile in intelligence but you are a diligent worker I'm sure you CAN get a degree.  However, if that 25th percentile intelligence person manages to work their way thorough four years  and get degree in Tiddly Winks I don't think that degree does them any good.  
I think it's more socioeconomic.  College grads are more likely to have parents who are college grads (who, in turn, generally have more money).  Having financial support from your family is probably more predictive to completing your degree than IQ.  Although, they may just walk hand-in-hand, idk. 
I do know that if you're not getting money and/or food from your family, it's a lot harder to finish college, no matter how smart you are.  That's why so many seemingly blindly walk into debt and deal with those repercussions the rest of their lives. 
Over the past half-century or so socioeconomic status and intelligence have converged in a major way.  There are a multitude of reasons but I'll hit a few highlights:
First, attainment of a college degree is now basically available to all:
Prior to WWII only a small fraction of the workforce had college degrees.  There were a few exceptions (Black Colleges and Women's Colleges for example), but college was generally only available to wealthy white males.  Those three restrictions were lifted in roughly a quarter-century:
  • The GI Bill (passed during WWII) eliminated the need to be wealthy.  
  • The success of the Civil Rights Movement eliminated the need to be white.  
  • The success of the Women's Movement eliminated the need to be male.  
By about the mid 1970's (or earlier) basically anyone could go to college.  Consequently, at this point in time possession of a college degree is a reasonably good proxy for intelligence.  There are exceptions, of course, but in general it works.  

Second, assortive mating:  

Years ago you used to hear about people being the first in their family to go to college.  Not so much anymore.  Most people today have either two college educated parents or none and either four college educated grandparents or none.  

The reason is that the vast majority of people mate/marry within socioeconomic status.  College grads generally marry college grads and non-college grads generally have children with non-college grads.  (Note the distinction between "marry" and "have children with").  Several generations on this means that most kids either have two college educated parents and four college educated grandparents or none.  

At the same time intelligence is at least partially genetic.  That means that those kids of college grads (and grandkids of college grads) have HUMONGOUS advantages over their peers who are children and grandchildren of non-college grads.  Not only do they have a better support network but they are also, on average, smarter.  

Third, the marriage vs having children thing that I referenced above:
Right around 50% of first time mothers are not married.  This, however, is NOT the same across the socioeconomic strata.  This link is a few years old but it shows a dramatic difference in % of births to unmarried women by education:
  • 90% of women with a Bachelor's degree or higher are married when they have kids.  
  • 57% of women with an Associate's degree or "some college" are married when they have kids.  
  • 41% of women with a HS Diploma or GED are married when they have kids.  
  • 38% of women without a HS Diploma are married when they have kids.  

This is a modern phenomena.  In the 1950's there wasn't a significant difference based on education or socioeconomic status.  Now there is.  Marriage has effectively become a luxury item that only the relatively well off are able to obtain.  

For white college educated women family formation is not really any different than it was for their great-grandmothers 60+ years ago, you get married then you have kids.  For non-white and non-college women marriage is maybe something to dream about but probably not a practical reality.  

For the kids this creates an even larger divide:
  • One group has a married mother and father who are both college grads.  They also generally have four college educated grandparents along with college educated Aunts and Uncles.  
  • The other group has a single mother who is not a college grad.  They also generally have zero college educated grandparents, Aunts, and Uncles.  
The difference for the kids is very significant.  

I'll use a sports metaphor to explain why I think this really only makes a difference for the kids in the middle. 

Way back when I was in HS my school had a really good BB team.  That is to say that we were really good at what I call "white suburban kid ball".  After a couple rounds of the playoffs we advanced to where we were playing inner-city schools from Akron in Akron U's gym.  I went to the first such game and while sitting in the stands with my friends we were WORRIED.  The opposing team clearly and obviously had a LOT more natural talent than our team did.  During warmups they were ALL dunking as compared to our team that had literally only one guy who could dunk and even then it was only if he had a clear path and a running start.  

My friends and I all thought that our team was going to get crushed.  What we didn't notice was that the other team's pregame warmup was not organized at all.  It was just a bunch of kids basically playing street-ball against each other with little or no oversight.  When the game started we lost the tip-off then won everything after that.  There was a guy on the other team's bench sitting where the coach should have been and he even looked like a coach.  As far as I know he was drawing a salary for coaching but that team didn't have a coach.  Seriously, it looked like the other team had NEVER had any serious BB coaching.  They were all fairly talented individual street-ballers but they had literally no idea how to actually play BB as a team sport.  My school crushed them.  

A few days later we went back to Akron U's gym to play another inner-city Akron school.  This time my friends and I in the stands were not worried at all.  We watched the warmups and assumed it would be like the last game.  What we didn't notice was that this team actually had an organized pre-game warmup routine.  Individually they were no better or worse than our previous opponent but this group had a legitimate coach.  They won the tip-off and everything after that.  My school got crushed.  

Coaching and teaching are obviously similar so that is my go-to metaphor for the importance of quality coaching/teaching.  My example here:

LeBron James had EXCELLENT HS BB coaching.  If he hadn't, I don't think it would have mattered much in the long run.  He was so naturally gifted that even without quality HS coaching I think he still would have eventually flourished in the NBA.  It might have taken longer.  He might have had to go to college for a year or two and develop some in the league but he was naturally gifted enough that he would have gotten there eventually anyway.  

I didn't play HS BB so I had no HS BB coaching at all.  It really doesn't matter because I clearly don't have any aptitude for the sport other than watching it.  No matter how good of a HS coach you gave me, I still wouldn't have made the NBA.  I suppose if I had had a REALLY good HS coach I *MIGHT* have been able to play BB at something like a D3 College but that is probably my ceiling.  

My point is that I don't think quality of HS BB coaching matters too much for LeBron or me.  It matters to the marginal NBA guy, way better than me but not nearly as good as LeBron.  For that guy, the quality of his HS BB coaching probably determines whether he gets a D1 scholarship and an eventual NBA contract or an offer to play D3 ball and no NBA contract.  

I think the same thing applies to education.  The 50th percentile is set at an IQ of 100 with a SD of about 15.  A kid with a 130 IQ is REALLY smart (98th percentile) while a kid with a 70 IQ is REALLY dull (3rd percentile).  What I am saying is that for the kids with IQ's of 70 or 130 the support network probably doesn't matter much.  That is so high or so low that the high IQ kid will eventually flourish even with a weak or non-existent support network and the low IQ kid just isn't going to get far no matter how well supported they are.  Where it matters, I think, is for the MUCH larger group of kids in the middle.  Roughly half of all kids have IQ between roughly 90 and 110.  For that group I think the support network matters a lot and a 90 IQ kid with a strong support network probably has a greater chance of getting a degree than a 110 IQ kid with a HS dropout single mother.  

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Breaking up Bama: How to save college football?
« Reply #185 on: January 21, 2021, 02:40:07 PM »
Often times, I wish I had a 95 IQ.  So often, it feels like our society is geared for them.  Distracted, busy, inefficient, efforting, distracted, laughing along with the canned laugh-track, distracted, a human battery in the matrix. 

I envy that more times than not.
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Then you have those at 160+, where it's more of a detriment than a blessing.  Serial killers, people who collect their nail clippings, etc.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Breaking up Bama: How to save college football?
« Reply #186 on: January 21, 2021, 02:58:08 PM »

I think the same thing applies to education.  The 50th percentile is set at an IQ of 100 with a SD of about 15.  A kid with a 130 IQ is REALLY smart (98th percentile) while a kid with a 70 IQ is REALLY dull (3rd percentile).  What I am saying is that for the kids with IQ's of 70 or 130 the support network probably doesn't matter much.  That is so high or so low that the high IQ kid will eventually flourish even with a weak or non-existent support network and the low IQ kid just isn't going to get far no matter how well supported they are.  Where it matters, I think, is for the MUCH larger group of kids in the middle.  Roughly half of all kids have IQ between roughly 90 and 110.  For that group I think the support network matters a lot and a 90 IQ kid with a strong support network probably has a greater chance of getting a degree than a 110 IQ kid with a HS dropout single mother. 

Yeah, I was surprised about the strength of the correlation between level of education for parents and for their kids is.  It's as if the "American Dream" has just enough anecdotal evidence to prolong the myth.  The book Bell Curve ruffled people's feathers, but I didn't find it said anything remarkable.  It was all pretty prudent stuff.  The race bit was like 2-3 paragraphs out of 500 pages, which caused the outrage.  What I took away from the book was how so much of an individual's life is out of their hands.

And I suspect the parent-child correlation for religion is just as strong as it is with education/wealth.  But we wouldn't want more outrage, now would we?
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Breaking up Bama: How to save college football?
« Reply #187 on: January 21, 2021, 03:05:51 PM »
Then you have those at 160+, where it's more of a detriment than a blessing.  Serial killers, people who collect their nail clippings, etc.
I feel like that's not really true... Just as there is this belief that athletes are dumb and that nerds aren't athletic.

I used to manage a guy who was absolutely brilliant. Most IQ tests put me somewhere in the 130-140 range, which makes me smart enough to realize that this guy was without fail a class above me in brainpower. I absolutely think he might have been in that 160+ category.

He was a fairly normal guy. He was successful. Managing him was a bit of work, because he was so smart that he could easily go down tangents he found personally interesting rather than focusing on his actual job responsibilities. And that was a double-edged sword. I had to give him a little leeway on that because he might invent something and file a patent that would really help the company, but if he went too far down the rabbit hole he would neglect his day-to-day stuff on minutiae that wouldn't pan out.

But in general, intelligence, athletic ability, height, attractiveness, and other positive traits are all positively correlated. Goes back to that "assortive mating" idea CD brought up. Successful people like to mate with other successful people and it reinforces positive traits.

The reason we think athletes are dumb is not because athletes are dumb. I'll bet that if you actually took the entire NFL and gave them IQ tests, the mean and median would both be above 100. The reason we think they're dumb is because ELITE athletic success is so far out on the tail end of the distribution that other characteristics that might have positive correlation (like intelligence) is irrelevant. If you're that successful athletically, it doesn't matter if you're smart enough to be in MENSA or if you're dumb as a post--although you have to be smart enough to comprehend a playbook and know your responsibilities on a play. So we see a lot of dumb athletes, and we think as a rule then that athleticism and intelligence are NEGATIVELY correlated because of the number of high-profile dummies.

The opposite is true with nerds. Success at something like computer coding is something you can have whether you can dunk a basketball or whether you can barely get out of a chair without getting winded. Because we see the high-profile nerds who look like they can't walk and think at the same time, we assume that there's a negative correlation and nerds are not athletic. But if you walk around the halls at my office (in a non-COVID time) you'll see plenty of nerds who are fit, healthy, and athletic.

The correlation between athleticism and intelligence is not an amazingly strong correlation, so it's entirely possible to have a ton of one with barely a wisp of the other. But it's still a positive correlation.

So I suspect there's not some positive correlation between extreme upper ends of the IQ range and being a serial killer or collecting your own nail clippings. But that the outliers, people with extreme upper ends of the IQ range who stick out for their weird traits leave a much bigger impression on our minds than the extreme upper end IQ folks who just live a normal life and are smart. Like dumb athletes and bookish unathletic nerds.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Breaking up Bama: How to save college football?
« Reply #188 on: January 21, 2021, 03:10:53 PM »
And I suspect the parent-child correlation for religion is just as strong as it is with education/wealth.  But we wouldn't want more outrage, now would we?
Eh, that's a learned behavior. Most people in the world are whatever religion they were raised to be. 

But that's not a hereditary behavior of genetic import.

If you have two kids switched at birth, one from parents who were Christian Scientists and one from parents who were Orthodox Jews, those two kids would grow up to be the religion of their non-biological parents. It's not like the child biologically related to Christian Scientists but raised to be an Orthodox Jew will one day wake up and think "it was all a lie! I was a Christian Scientist all along!" 

Cincydawg

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Re: Breaking up Bama: How to save college football?
« Reply #189 on: January 21, 2021, 03:22:30 PM »
If you listen to Richard Feynman's lectures, you likely would find he has an ability to simplify and clarify.  I think he would qualify as being brilliant by whatever metric.

My neighbor is probably merely "very smart", PhD in physics from Harvard, Tech professor for 32 years, you'd never have any idea of either if you just chatted with him.

I'd say he seems to be quite driven in whatever he's doing at the time.

iahawk15

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Re: Breaking up Bama: How to save college football?
« Reply #190 on: January 21, 2021, 07:34:21 PM »
I haven't been on the board in a while, and I haven't read through the thread but here's my unsolicited hot take. Bama is not the problem, a 4 team playoff is the problem.

If Bama thrives under the current structure, good for them. But if you actually wanna save college football, create a structure where more than 6-8 teams have a reasonable shot of making the playoffs.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Breaking up Bama: How to save college football?
« Reply #191 on: January 21, 2021, 08:03:49 PM »
Eh, that's a learned behavior. Most people in the world are whatever religion they were raised to be.

But that's not a hereditary behavior of genetic import.

If you have two kids switched at birth, one from parents who were Christian Scientists and one from parents who were Orthodox Jews, those two kids would grow up to be the religion of their non-biological parents. It's not like the child biologically related to Christian Scientists but raised to be an Orthodox Jew will one day wake up and think "it was all a lie! I was a Christian Scientist all along!"
Of course, but the point is that both would wake up one day and say "It was all a lie!  There's no evidence for my belief!"
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Breaking up Bama: How to save college football?
« Reply #192 on: January 21, 2021, 08:07:43 PM »
I feel like that's not really true... Just as there is this belief that athletes are dumb and that nerds aren't athletic.

I used to manage a guy who was absolutely brilliant. Most IQ tests put me somewhere in the 130-140 range, which makes me smart enough to realize that this guy was without fail a class above me in brainpower. I absolutely think he might have been in that 160+ category.


Cool, there's one more anecdote.  
The idea is that our society is geared towards the mean and being so very smart in a sea of "less than" is, rationally, frustrating beyond description.  It makes sense for the uber-intelligent to "lose it" because this world isn't for them.  Being smarter than your boss, and/or all of the decision-makers around you isn't going to yield a peaceful, fun-loving person.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Breaking up Bama: How to save college football?
« Reply #193 on: January 21, 2021, 08:09:04 PM »
Just overall, can we not with the "this one guy I know" stuff?  It doesn't provide enough support to neither confirm nor disprove anything.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Breaking up Bama: How to save college football?
« Reply #194 on: January 21, 2021, 08:55:44 PM »
Of course, but the point is that both would wake up one day and say "It was all a lie!  There's no evidence for my belief!"
Why would either wake up and say that?

Are you assuming that normal people critically examine their own beliefs on a regular basis?

That doesn't happen in the main.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Breaking up Bama: How to save college football?
« Reply #195 on: January 21, 2021, 09:02:50 PM »
Cool, there's one more anecdote. 
The idea is that our society is geared towards the mean and being so very smart in a sea of "less than" is, rationally, frustrating beyond description.  It makes sense for the uber-intelligent to "lose it" because this world isn't for them.  Being smarter than your boss, and/or all of the decision-makers around you isn't going to yield a peaceful, fun-loving person.
Is you conjecture that 160+ IQ folks are serial killers more than conjecture?

Trust me. I get your point. It's aggravating to live in a world full of people who don't think beyond the surface of issues, when you have the capability and interest to see deeper.

My take is that you think you see deeper. I don't think that's true. I think you look down on people when you have no ability to look up.


Just overall, can we not with the "this one guy I know" stuff?  It doesn't provide enough support to neither confirm nor disprove anything.
I mentioned an anecdote.

I also mentioned (albeit without links) that all the various positive traits we ascribe to people are usually positively correlated.

I have no reason to think that stops at an IQ of 160. Why do you?

 

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