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Topic: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 9

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LittlePig

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 9
« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2024, 06:20:38 PM »
It's not just that ILL beat Pur in OT,  but that 2 of their Big Ten wins are in OT.  Really the only solid win ILL has is against Mich.

I have found it helps my peace of mind to treat OT games as ties when it comes to power rankings. 

But now that I think about it a little more,  the winning team did win the tiebreaker,  so they should get a small edge over the team that lost the tiebreaker.  So maybe the winning team gets credit for 60% of a win and the losing team gets credit for 40% of a win.

So ILL conference record really is only 2.2 - 2.8 instead of 3-2  Neb is really 2.4 - 2.6 instead of 2-3.  Pur is really 0.4 - 3.6 instead of 0-4. 

Lol,  does that make any sense at all?
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FearlessF

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 9
« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2024, 06:31:41 PM »
games decided by 7 or less are slightly better than ties
especially if the stats are close

the winning team makes a play or two, the refs make a call or 2, the ball bounces with a little luck

2 evenly matched teams

is one team better because they won a 3 point game?

yes, they were that day for 60 minutes, but perhaps not for the season

yet, we mostly rank them by number of losses
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 9
« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2024, 06:32:25 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 29, 2024, 05:43:07 PM
  • PU - As bad as they have been in their other games, how did they push Illinois to OT in Champaign? 
As bad as they have been in their last ~30 seasons, how have they amassed such a surprising conference record against OSU? 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 9
« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2024, 11:11:13 PM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 29, 2024, 06:32:25 PM
As bad as they have been in their last ~30 seasons, how have they amassed such a surprising conference record against OSU?
Yeah, we've covered this at length and it is weird because for as bad as they've been, they just play well against Ohio State.  

Per your ~30 seasons, I'll use PSU's first in the league and go 1993-2023.  In that time, here is Purdue's record against each of the teams that have been in the league for that entire time:
  • .720, 18-7 vs IL
  • .633, 19-11 vs IU
  • .536, 15-13 vs MN
  • .500, 13-13 vs NU
  • .405, 8-12-1 vs MSU
  • .380, 9-15-1 vs IA
  • .250, 5-15 vs tOSU
  • .211, 4-15 vs M
  • .173, 4-21-1 vs UW
  • .111, 2-16 vs PSU

From 1993-2023 Ohio State was far-and-away the best team in the league so, in theory, Purdue should have their worst record against the Buckeyes but they are actually worse against Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State.  

Here is Ohio State's:
  • 1.000, 27-0 vs IU
  • .947, 18-1 vs MN
  • .944, 17-1 vs NU
  • .867, 13-2 vs IA
  • .818, 18-4 vs IL
  • .800, 20-5 vs MSU
  • .771, 18-5-1 vs UW
  • .750, 15-5 vs PU
  • .742, 23-8 vs PSU
  • .633, 19-11 vs M

Here is it even more strange because this suggests that Purdue has been the fourth best team in the league behind only tOSU, M, and PSU.  

Also in this time-frame, Ohio State is a perfect 6-0 against Notre Dame with two wins each at home, on the road, and in bowls.  Purdue's record against Notre Dame is 5-18 or .217.  Against Notre Dame the Boilermakers are 4-7 in West Lafayette, 1-10 in South Bend, and 0-1 in Indianapolis.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 9
« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2024, 11:37:56 PM »
Using my table of performance, some thoughts then my ranking:

Amongst the top-4, I think there is a credible argument for any of the four at any of the top-4 spots:

  • Indiana's argument for #1 is that they beat UNL WAY better than tOSU did and tOSU is about even with Ore and PSU looks to be no better than Ore/tOSU so IU should be #1.  
  • Oregon's argument is that they have the only H2H win over one of the other three and thus the best "marquee" win.  
  • Penn State's argument is that they have credible road wins which the others really don't.  
  • Ohio State's argument is that in a "power ranking" a team that goes on the road and loses by a single point should be ranked AHEAD of the team that beat them because that is within the HFA margin and they've also "looked the part" in all of the rest of their games save for Nebraska.  
I think Illinois should be next simply because their losses are on the road to teams above.  However, I hesitate here because they needed OT to win at home over Purdue and also beat UNL in OT so they are two plays from being 1-4.  

Iowa is Iowa, here they are.  

I'm really hesitant to put Michigan this low because, as an Ohio State fan, I fear them more than Illinois, Iowa, or Indiana.  I also think that they have a credible chance to beat Oregon this weekend because Oregon can't simply out-talent them across the board.  That said, Michigan also looks like a team that could lose to Purdue, because their offense is just woeful.  

Wisconsin's blowouts of lesser teams are great and the 15 point loss to PSU isn't THAT bad because PSU looks to be a contender but OTOH, they got drilled by USC.  

I think each of USC's bad results are individually understandable but there are just too many of them which is why I have them here, below a team that they drilled.  

I'll go with Nebraska over MSU because for now their only common opponent is Ohio State and obviously the Cornhuskers kept that closer than the Spartans.  

Minnesota has a lot of close games and that makes them hard to rank.  

Washington because other than the Rutgers loss, they look pretty good.  

Northwestern because they have the best win of the bottom teams (by 27 at Maryland).  

UCLA because road wins are hard and they managed to win in Jersey.  

I'll go with Maryland over Rutgers due to better against common opponent USC.  

Purdue, it is just bad.  The OT loss to IL is by far their best performance of the year and frankly this weekend's game against Northwestern may be their last chance to avoid going 0-fer this year.  

So that is:
  • Oregon - Because they've been most consistent.  
  • Penn State - Because they have road wins.  
  • Ohio State - Because until they show a way forward without their starting L Tackle, I will not believe that there is one.  
  • Indiana
  • Illinois
  • Iowa
  • Michigan
  • Wisconsin
  • USC
  • Nebraska
  • MSU
  • Minnesota
  • Washington
  • Northwestern
  • UCLA
  • Maryland
  • Rutgers
  • Purdue

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 9
« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2024, 10:30:39 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 29, 2024, 11:11:13 PM
Yeah, we've covered this at length and it is weird because for as bad as they've been, they just play well against Ohio State. 

Per your ~30 seasons, I'll use PSU's first in the league and go 1993-2023.  In that time, here is Purdue's record against each of the teams that have been in the league for that entire time:
  • .720, 18-7 vs IL
  • .633, 19-11 vs IU
  • .536, 15-13 vs MN
  • .500, 13-13 vs NU
  • .405, 8-12-1 vs MSU
  • .380, 9-15-1 vs IA
  • .250, 5-15 vs tOSU
  • .211, 4-15 vs M
  • .173, 4-21-1 vs UW
  • .111, 2-16 vs PSU

From 1993-2023 Ohio State was far-and-away the best team in the league so, in theory, Purdue should have their worst record against the Buckeyes but they are actually worse against Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State. 

Here is Ohio State's:
  • 1.000, 27-0 vs IU
  • .947, 18-1 vs MN
  • .944, 17-1 vs NU
  • .867, 13-2 vs IA
  • .818, 18-4 vs IL
  • .800, 20-5 vs MSU
  • .771, 18-5-1 vs UW
  • .750, 15-5 vs PU
  • .742, 23-8 vs PSU
  • .633, 19-11 vs M

Here is it even more strange because this suggests that Purdue has been the fourth best team in the league behind only tOSU, M, and PSU. 

Also in this time-frame, Ohio State is a perfect 6-0 against Notre Dame with two wins each at home, on the road, and in bowls.  Purdue's record against Notre Dame is 5-18 or .217.  Against Notre Dame the Boilermakers are 4-7 in West Lafayette, 1-10 in South Bend, and 0-1 in Indianapolis. 
You typed a lot of info when I only posted that to do two things:

  • To needle OSU fans for their bizarre, weird, uncharacteristically bad performance against a team that shouldn't ever even challenge them.
  • To point out that in college football, weird things happen. Yeah, a terrible Purdue team inexplicably took Illinois to OT. Just like a historically overmatched Purdue team has amassed the 3rd-best conference record against the best team in the league over the past 30 years. 


There could be more than a few things that happened. Maybe Purdue just had a good day and Illinois a terrible one. Purdue's been so bad that I haven't followed them much, but IIRC it was the first start for a new QB after Card was benched (injured? idk) and maybe Illinois had no film on the new QB. Maybe they just started feeling some success in the second half and were on a roll, playing above their ability. 

It's the law of large numbers. 130 FBS teams. Maybe 50+ games a week after byes/scheduling. Every once in a while, a team is going to do something they shouldn't. Let's not make narratives out of it. It's just the inherent randomness of life and sport. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 9
« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2024, 11:00:28 AM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 30, 2024, 10:30:39 AM
You typed a lot of info when I only posted that to do two things:

  • To needle OSU fans for their bizarre, weird, uncharacteristically bad performance against a team that shouldn't ever even challenge them.
  • To point out that in college football, weird things happen. Yeah, a terrible Purdue team inexplicably took Illinois to OT. Just like a historically overmatched Purdue team has amassed the 3rd-best conference record against the best team in the league over the past 30 years.


There could be more than a few things that happened. Maybe Purdue just had a good day and Illinois a terrible one. Purdue's been so bad that I haven't followed them much, but IIRC it was the first start for a new QB after Card was benched (injured? idk) and maybe Illinois had no film on the new QB. Maybe they just started feeling some success in the second half and were on a roll, playing above their ability.

It's the law of large numbers. 130 FBS teams. Maybe 50+ games a week after byes/scheduling. Every once in a while, a team is going to do something they shouldn't. Let's not make narratives out of it. It's just the inherent randomness of life and sport.
Oh, I get it.  

I made a chart once of each teams' record against each of the others.  Now theoretically each team should be worst against tOSU then Michigan, etc and best against IU, etc.  I think nearly all of them had at least one that was just out-of-whack.  

Applied to this year it is why I said upthread that I think the outliers need to be identified and then basically ignored when doing Power Rankings.  PU/IL is an outlier.  Purdue hasn't looked that good in any of their other games nor has Illinois looked that bad in any of theirs.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 9
« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2024, 12:38:07 PM »
I'm sure I did this before but I couldn't find it so here it is again.  What this is:
30 years (1993-2022) records against each of the teams that were in the Big11Ten/B1G for all of that time.  Note that for ease of computation I treated ties as 0.5 W and 0.5 L.  Here are the winning percentages:

This is sorted such that the best teams are at the top/Left (tOSU followed by M then PSU, etc) and the worst teams are at the bottom/Right (Indiana led by Illinois then MN, etc).  Consequently for each team, they should have their worst % at the top and their best at the bottom.  

Example, Ohio State:
Over the 30 seasons from 1993-2022 the Buckeyes had the best Big11Ten/B1G record by a comfortable margin.  Their worst record was against Michigan which makes sense since Michigan was #2.  Ohio State's best record (a perfect 26-0) was against Indiana which also makes sense since Indiana was #11 (by a big margin).  

Looking through it:
Ohio State:
Underperformed against PU and IL.  Overperformed against Iowa.  

Michigan:
Underperformed against UW and MSU.  

Penn State:
Underperformed against Iowa and Minnesota.  

Wisconsin:
Overperformed against M, overperformed against PU.  

Iowa:
Underperformed against tOSU (yeah, that should be their worst but they should be better than THAT).  Overperformed against PSU.  

MSU:
Overperformed against M.  Underperformed against IU.  

Northwestern:
Underperformed against MSU.  

Purdue:
Overperformed against tOSU and, to a lesser extent, Michigan.  Underperformed against UW and IU.  

Minnesota:
Overperformed against PSU.  

Illinois:
Underperformed against MSU.  

Indiana:
Underperformed against MSU and NU.  

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FearlessF

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 9
« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2024, 12:44:20 PM »
Many of my Hawkeye buddies really don't like the huskers but....

They were rooting for the big red last Saturday 
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LittlePig

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 9
« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2024, 01:59:50 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on October 30, 2024, 12:44:20 PM
Many of my Hawkeye buddies really don't like the huskers but....

They were rooting for the big red last Saturday
Why?  Only asking because it is not obvious to me why Iowa would root for Nebraska over Ohio St.
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FearlessF

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 9
« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2024, 02:12:36 PM »
The Hawkeyes record vs the buckeyes 
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LittlePig

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 9
« Reply #25 on: October 30, 2024, 03:12:56 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on October 30, 2024, 02:12:36 PM
The Hawkeyes record vs the buckeyes
Ok,  got it.  Thanks!
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SFBadger96

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 9
« Reply #26 on: October 30, 2024, 03:41:43 PM »
The funny thing about this is that I think of Wisconsin overperforming against Ohio State and underperfoming against Michigan, but that's driven by the upsets that were a bigger deal against OSU, and the losses to Michigan teams that frankly weren't that good. Good to see evidence that actually we've done alright against the Wolverines. And it's been a long time since the Badgers have had a really good win against either.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 9
« Reply #27 on: October 30, 2024, 04:04:39 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on October 30, 2024, 02:12:36 PM
The Hawkeyes record vs the buckeyes
A couple things on this:

First, Ohio State's overperformance against Iowa pretty much compensates for the underperformance against Purdue.  Look down the column:

If you simply swapped the % against Iowa with the % against Purdue, the column would be roughly what one would expect.  

Second, the Ohio State / Iowa thing is probably partially because they are each other's least frequent opponent.  In the 30 seasons from 1993-2022 they only played 15 times so every other year on average.  Iowa played their next least frequent (M) 19 times.  Ohio State played their next least frequent (NU and MN) 18 times each.  

Looking at the games:
Individual Game Results of Ohio State (vs Iowa), 1993-2022

Date Opponent (record)ResultScoreSite
10/22/2022vs.*Iowa (8-5)W5410
11/4/2017@*Iowa (8-5)L2455
10/19/2013vs.*Iowa (8-5)W3424
11/20/2010@*Iowa (8-5)W2017
11/14/2009vs.*Iowa (11-2)W2724
9/30/2006@*Iowa (6-7)W3817
9/24/2005vs.*Iowa (7-5)W316
10/16/2004@*Iowa (10-2)L733
10/18/2003vs.*Iowa (10-3)W1910
10/21/2000@*Iowa (3-9)W3810
10/30/1999vs.*Iowa (1-10)W4111
11/14/1998@*Iowa (3-8)W4514
10/4/1997vs.*Iowa (7-5)W237
10/26/1996@*Iowa (9-3)W3826
10/28/1995vs.*Iowa (8-4)W5635

It is funny, the two times that Iowa DID win, they blew Ohio State out.  Ohio State has some blowouts among their 13 wins but they also won in OT once and have an additional one-score win.  If Iowa had split the two one-score games they'd be 3-12 or .200 instead of .133.  

Missed years:
  • 1993:  Iowa went 6-6, tOSU went 10-1-1
  • 1994:  Iowa went 5-5-1, tOSU went 9-4
  • 2001:  Both teams went 7-5
  • 2002:  One of the biggest ever Big Ten games not played, Iowa went 11-2 overall but undefeated in conference, tOSU went 14-0
  • 2007:  Iowa went 6-6, tOSU went 11-2
  • 2008:  Iowa went 9-4, tOSU went 10-3
  • 2011:  Iowa went 7-6, tOSU went 6-7
  • 2012:  Iowa went 4-8, tOSU went 12-0
  • 2014:  Iowa went 7-6, tOSU went 14-1 and won the NC
  • 2015:  Iowa went 12-2, tOSU went 12-1
  • 2016:  Iowa went 8-5, tOSU went 11-2
  • 2018:  Iowa went 9-4, tOSU went 13-1
  • 2019:  Iowa went 10-3, tOSU went 13-1
  • 2020:  Iowa went 6-2, tOSU went 7-1
  • 2021:  Iowa went 10-4, tOSU went 11-2

I bolded seasons in which the Hawkeyes did better or nearly as good as the Buckeyes.  It is fairly unlikely that Iowa's 4-8 team from 2012 would have stopped Ohio State's 12-0 season but seven of these are seasons in which Iowa was just about as good as Ohio State.  
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