Teams with 1st Loss Week 4:
Illinois
Auburn
Tulane
Utah
Nebraska
Michigan State
Rutgers
North Carolina State
California
Percent of Teams with 1st loss of the Season:
Week 0/1: 36.0% (49 of 136)
Week 2: 36.8% (32 of 87)
Week 3: 29.1% (16 of 55)
Week 4: 23.1% (9 of 39)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
6*: No changes this week. That leaves us the possibility of one undefeated in each of the Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Big 12, American, and Mountain West.
Note: I am continuing with the assumption that there are no more than 1 undefeated team per conference right here for now. There are many (fairly unlikely) scenarios where we could have three undefeated teams in a conference before conference championship games so technically this number is low. For simplicity, I am going to ignore that possibility for at least the first few weeks and maybe longer.
Week 4 Thoughts:
-I added the winless list this week. We start with 5 teams on the list. The only conference with two members on it is the MAC with Miami (OH) and UMass. The only power 4 program on the list is UCLA. I'll add the one loss list sometime in the next couple weeks.
-Indiana beat Illinois badly in a ranked vs. ranked game. Indiana has come a long way and is doing a lot to show last year wasn't just a fluke. We'll see if they can maintain things going forward. Their schedule does not line up as well this year as it did last year for a deep run (have @Oregon and @Penn State), but as things stand, they are the 4th highest ranked Big Ten team again and making the playoffs two years in a row, but be amazing for the Hoosiers. Michigan and USC won their respective games. If both win next week, they play each other in two weeks which will show some of the pecking order in the conference this year.
-Last years ACC playoff teams now have 3 and 2 losses as Clemson fell to Syracuse and SMU in their rivalry to TCU. The conference does have three teams in the top 16 though now with Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), and Florida State all winning this week. Miami is now #2 in the AP poll. While a chance at getting all three in is there, the conference would really like at least two of them there with one being highly ranked going in (I think they'd take a 2 and 7 seed all day over three getting in at 9, 10, and 11 for example).
-Texas Tech beat Utah to take the lead in the Big 12 race. The race for the conference crown is probably the most open of any Power 4 conference, but Texas Tech is definitely the leader for the moment. The conference is up to 4 ranked teams with Iowa State, TCU, and BYU also in the ranking. Ideally, the conference wants teams higher in the pecking order. Right now, Texas Tech is #12 and Iowa State is #14 in the AP. The conference office would probably be happiest to have those 4 keep winning except against each other.
-Oklahoma won a ranked battle with Auburn. This increasingly looks to be setting up a very large River River Showdown in two weeks. On the flip side, South Carolina has lost in back to back weeks leaving a ranked Missouri rising further.
-For the Group of 5 race, we did see Tulane lose to Ole Miss. Tulane still is the favorite in the American, so that does increase the chances we see at least a one loss American champ. On the flip side, the conference did see Memphis win a close on vs. Arkansas to leave the Tigers undefeated. In the Mountain West, UNLV had a good comeback to beat a better than record shows now 0-3 Miami (OH) and 1-loss San Diego State did demolish a previously undefeated Cal.
Not a ton changed in the Group of 5 race this week through all of that. I expect the American to have a solid edge for the spot, with the Mountain West next most likely. Other scenarios do put the spot elsewhere though so 1-loss Sun Belt, MAC, and Conference USA teams need to root for chaos in the other two.
Week 5 Thoughts:
-We have 4 games between undefeated teams this week.
Undefeated Oregon at undefeated Penn State: Winner will be one of top ranked in the country and have inside track to Big Ten Championship. Loser still in good place for the playoff, but with less margin for error. Probably a bigger deal for Penn State given they also have to go on the road to Ohio State.
Undefeated LSU at undefeated Ole Miss: Ole Miss less than a 2 point favorite. Winner will be one of the favorites in the conference and help playoff odds significantly.
Undefeated Ohio State at undefeated Washington: Buckeyes 9.5 favorites on the road in a west coast game. Going to Oregon last year they lost. Washington would instantly make waves with a win.
Undefeated Arizona at undefeated Iowa State: Iowa State is ranked 2nd in the Big 12 right now, but the conference wide open. Arizona would like to move into conference race discussion.
Undefeated Florida State @ 1-loss Virginia (Friday): Florida State is bit less than a touchdown favorite for a Friday night road game. The ACC definitely wants the Seminoles to keep winning for now.
Undefeated TCU at 1-loss Arizona State (Friday): Ranked Big 12 team vs. last years champs. The Sun Devils are small favorites. Given an out of conference loss, Big 12 is probably better for a TCU win, but Arizona State definitely in the conference race.
Undefeated USC at 1-loss Illinois: Ranked vs. ranked. A win by Illinois helps sets up a bigger game with Michigan in two weeks.
Notre Dame @ Arkansas: Notre Dame is a 4.5 point favorite. Lose and they are out of the playoff race which will help one conference at the end of the year.
Undefeated Louisville at Pitt: A road win here would push Louisville closer to ranking, but they are only a small favorite.
1-loss Cincinnati at 1-loss Kansas: There is a lot of negativity around UC fans I know, but they aren't a big road underdog here. Game might say a lot about their trajectory. Kansas, for their part, is definitely trending upward last few years.
1-loss Auburn at undefeated Texas A&M: After a rough loss last week, Auburn goes on the road this week. A second loss puts them on life support for the playoff. Texas A&M's first SEC game this year.
Undefeated Indiana at 1-loss Iowa: Do the Hoosiers follow up with a road win at Iowa. They are over a touchdown favorite.
Winless UCLA at Northwestern: UCLA is a bit less than a touchdown underdog.
1-loss Tennessee at undefeated Mississippi State: The Vols are a 7.5 point favorite. A 2nd loss leaves them with no margin in the playoff race. Mississippi State would enter rankings with a win.
1-loss Alabama at undefeated Georgia: Not quite hype of a few years ago, but still a huge game. The spread is close. A 2nd loss wouldn't eliminate Alabama from SEC or national title race (loss was out of conference), but would leave them with limited margin of error.
Undefeated BYU at Colorado: Better for playoff potential for Big 12 if BYU wins. Might be better for TV if Colorado does.
Bowling Green at Ohio: The favorite to win the MAC vs. the 4th favorite.
1-loss Western Kentucky at Missouri State: The favorite to win Conference USA vs. the FBS newcomer. Missouri State only a 4.5 point underdog here.
1-loss Louisiana Tech at UTEP: Second favorite to win Conference USA is only a small underdog here.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 4, American: 3, Big 12: 7, Big Ten: 7, Mountain West: 1, SEC: 8, total: 30
Florida State
Maryland
Georgia Tech
Miami (FL)
Iowa State
Missouri
Oklahoma
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Louisville
Indiana
Ohio State
Penn State
Memphis
Central Florida
Houston
Brigham Young
Texas Christian
UNLV
Arizona
Oregon
Southern California
Washington
Georgia
Vanderbilt
Louisiana State
Mississippi State
Mississippi
North Texas
Navy
Remaining Winless Teams: Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 1, MAC:2, PAC-12: 1, total: 5
UCLA
Sam Houston
Massachusetts
Miami (OH)
Oregon State
