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Topic: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 13

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Benthere2

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 13
« Reply #14 on: November 26, 2024, 05:33:19 PM »
@medinabuckeye1 
I totally understand your thought process but the game was played and OSU lost albeit on the road head to head

they are very close but just the head to head I give the top to Oregon but if they played 10 times on neutral sites in the middle so both travel the same they probably end up 50/50 give or take 1 game

The show down in the CC will be key and fun to watch
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 13
« Reply #15 on: November 26, 2024, 06:00:01 PM »
Quote from: Benthere2 on November 26, 2024, 05:33:19 PM
@medinabuckeye1
I totally understand your thought process but the game was played and OSU lost albeit on the road head to head

they are very close but just the head to head I give the top to Oregon but if they played 10 times on neutral sites in the middle so both travel the same they probably end up 50/50 give or take 1 game

The show down in the CC will be key and fun to watch
What I REALLY don't like is treating H2H as an end-all, be-all that trumps everything.  If one team is CLEARLY better but lost H2H, I'll still put them ahead.  

That doesn't apply here because it is CLOSE ignoring the H2H.  

In this situation it isn't so much that I'm arguing to value the rest of the season over H2H as that I'm arguing that from a "Power Ranking" perspective, I don't think a 1 point win by the home team means much of anything.  I can make a compelling argument that it means that the visitor should be ranked AHEAD of the team that beat them.  Vegas generally says HFA is worth 3-5 points so a team that lost on the road by 1 should WIN by 2-4 at a neutral site and win at home by 5-9.  

OTOH, I do get where you are coming from.  At the end of the day you either won or lost.  Oregon won and Ohio State lost.  

If the Buckeyes beat Michigan we'll get a neutral site match-up in a week and a half.  

If you were compelled to wager an appreciable sum of your own cash on the potential Oregon/Ohio State neutral site CG in Indianapolis straight up (no spread), which team would you put your money on?  

For me, the answer to that question is Ohio State and to me that is how a Power Ranking should be voted.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 13
« Reply #16 on: November 26, 2024, 06:22:39 PM »
Looking further down, maybe USC is just snakebit?  

They are done with B1G play at 4-5.  The only home loss was to Penn State and that was in OT.  The other home games were a blowout of Rutgers, a three-score win over Wisconsin, and a solid win over Nebraska.  All five losses were one-score games.  They are literally five plays from 9-0.  

Seven of USC's nine games have been decided by one score.  Wisconsin is their opposite.  Their three point home loss to Oregon is their ONLY one score game.  They have big losses to PSU, IA, USC, and UNL.  They have big wins over RU, NU, and PU.  

You might say "well everybody beats RU, NU, and PU big" and to an extent you have a point but Wisconsin's 46 point win over Purdue was the second biggest MOV in the whole conference this year (behind IU's 49 over UNL and ahead of tOSU's 45 over PU and M's 44 of NU).  Wisconsin's 35 point win in Piscataway was Rutgers' worst loss this season.  The Badgers' 20 point road win over Northwestern was comparable to tOSU's 24 point road win over the Wildcats and if you adjust for HFA it was equivalent to Iowa's 26 point win over NU.  My point is that Wisconsin is hard to figure out because their wins have been REALLY good, best-in-the-conference good but their losses have been REALLY bad.  

Rutgers is another team that has kept their fans entertained.  They are 2-3 in their five one-score games.  

With Nebraska I think you have to just treat the tOSU and IU games as offsetting weird results.  Given the rest of their results there is no way they should have been that close to tOSU nor that far from IU but they were.  

I frankly think that MSU is better than most people are giving them credit for.  They had to play five of the top-6 teams in the league and they went 1-4 in those games.  

UCLA might be the most unpredictable team in the league.  They have respectable road wins over RU and UNL but a team good enough to win those shouldn't have lost at home to MN and USC.  

Northwestern is just plain bad.  Their two wins are over the worst two teams.  

Maryland, notwithstanding the USC win, is worse.  The Terps may actually be worse than . . .

Purdue is winless but they do have two OT losses and an additional one-score loss.  
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LittlePig

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 13
« Reply #17 on: November 26, 2024, 06:26:22 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 26, 2024, 11:37:38 AM
The bigger gap is probably between top-4 and the rest rather than top-9 and the rest so here are games and records against the top-4:
I think if you tweaked the conference standings to imagine that the top-4 all played each other and that the bottom 14 each played 2 out of 4 top-4 teams,  it might look something like this

1.  Oregon 7-1
2.  Ohio Sr 7-1
3.  Ind 6-2
4.  PSU 6-2
5.  ILL 5-3
6.  Iowa 4-4
7.  Wash 4-4
8.  Mich 4-4
9.  Mich St 4-4
10.  UCLA 4-5
11.  Minn 3-5
12.  Neb 3-5
13.  Wisc 3-5
14.  USC 3-6
15.  NW 2-6
16.  Rut 2-6
18.  Pur 1-7
18.  MD 1-7

Not a dramatic difference.  MSU, UCLA, Purdue would be 1 game better.  Iowa,  minn, USC, Rut one game worse.
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LittlePig

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 13
« Reply #18 on: November 26, 2024, 06:45:57 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 26, 2024, 06:22:39 PM
Looking further down, maybe USC is just snakebit? 

They are done with B1G play at 4-5.  The only home loss was to Penn State and that was in OT.  The other home games were a blowout of Rutgers, a three-score win over Wisconsin, and a solid win over Nebraska.  All five losses were one-score games.  They are literally five plays from 9-0. 

Seven of USC's nine games have been decided by one score.  
USC sounds a lot like Kansas in the Big 12.  Kansas had a lot close losses early,   now they are on a roll.  First losing team ever to beat 3 ranked teams in a row.
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Benthere2

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 13
« Reply #19 on: November 26, 2024, 09:01:20 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 26, 2024, 06:00:01 PM
What I REALLY don't like is treating H2H as an end-all, be-all that trumps everything.  If one team is CLEARLY better but lost H2H, I'll still put them ahead. 

That doesn't apply here because it is CLOSE ignoring the H2H. 

In this situation it isn't so much that I'm arguing to value the rest of the season over H2H as that I'm arguing that from a "Power Ranking" perspective, I don't think a 1 point win by the home team means much of anything.  I can make a compelling argument that it means that the visitor should be ranked AHEAD of the team that beat them.  Vegas generally says HFA is worth 3-5 points so a team that lost on the road by 1 should WIN by 2-4 at a neutral site and win at home by 5-9. 

OTOH, I do get where you are coming from.  At the end of the day you either won or lost.  Oregon won and Ohio State lost. 

If the Buckeyes beat Michigan we'll get a neutral site match-up in a week and a half. 

If you were compelled to wager an appreciable sum of your own cash on the potential Oregon/Ohio State neutral site CG in Indianapolis straight up (no spread), which team would you put your money on? 

For me, the answer to that question is Ohio State and to me that is how a Power Ranking should be voted. 

if i had to bet...yep I would place money on OSU because i know them a lot better and they do have a long long long history of excellence
and you should beat Michigan this weekend and i don't really think it will be close so earning the chance to play them again
say split with them and you win by more than 1 point this will justify your weekly ranking.  

years ago without a 12 or even a 4 team playoff a loss was a loss and it really did mean more and you could not usually atone for the "bad" day

I would also say to your situation traveling across the time zones for a regular season game is worth a point or two as well 
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ELA

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 13
« Reply #20 on: November 26, 2024, 10:56:56 PM »
The issue with USC is the Maryland loss.  The top 4 havent lost any games outside of each other.  The bottom 3 havent won any games outsode of each other... except for Maryland beating USC.  Fine, one score game, but Maryland went 1-4 at home in the conference, and the 4 losses were MSU, Northwestern, Iowa and Rutgers.  I dont care if its close, thats a disqualifying loss, when you have nothing to counter it with in conference
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LittlePig

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 13
« Reply #21 on: November 27, 2024, 05:45:18 AM »
I get the logic that Ohio St only lost to Oregon by 1-pt on the road,  but it's a game that could have gone either way and Oregon found a way to win (and OSU didn't).  

I expect a rematch between the same 2 teams to be the same.  2 fairly even teams in a game that could go either way,  but I am giving the edge to the team that won the first time.

I think I may also be influenced by what happened last year between Wash and Oregon.  Wash beat Oregon in the regular season and was undefeated,  yet Oregon was a heavy favorite to win the Pac-12 CCG.  Then Wash beat Oregon again. 

So this time I guess I figure until Oregon loses at least once,  they will remain my number #1 team.
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ELA

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 13
« Reply #22 on: November 27, 2024, 08:52:33 AM »
Updated SOR/SP+


  • #12 Boise State at #5 OHIO STATE; winner vs. #4 BYU
  • #11 Notre Dame at #6 Georgia; winner vs. #3 SMU
  • #10 Tennessee at #7 PENN STATE; winner vs. #2 Texas
  • #9 INDIANA at #8 Miami; winner vs. #1 OREGON


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FearlessF

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 13
« Reply #23 on: November 27, 2024, 09:00:22 AM »
would probably produce a final 4 of Ohio St, Georgia, Texas, & Oregon
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847badgerfan

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 13
« Reply #24 on: November 27, 2024, 09:02:35 AM »
I would love to see BYU and SMU in the final four.
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FearlessF

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 13
« Reply #25 on: November 27, 2024, 09:07:11 AM »
just to drive OAM nutz?

it would have to be the work of God
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847badgerfan

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 13
« Reply #26 on: November 27, 2024, 09:27:46 AM »
Quote from: FearlessF on November 27, 2024, 09:07:11 AM
just to drive OAM nutz?

it would have to be the work of God
No. Just to see the sport take a deserved punch in the face.
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utee94

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 13
« Reply #27 on: November 27, 2024, 09:31:32 AM »
If they make it to the final 4 how is the sport taking a punch in the face?  The teams they beat, should have sucked less.

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