Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

Well, everything is a lot clearer now. 

1. Oregon -  had the week off.  Has clinched a spot in CCG.

2.  Ohio St - dominated Indiana at home.  OSU has lost to Oregon on the road by 1-pt.  OSU has beat PSU on the road and Ind at home.  OSU needs to beat Mich to make it to CCG for a rematch against Oregon.

3.  Indiana - lost on road to Ohio St.  Indiana has dominated in every game this year except for 2 games.  A  close win over Mich and 23-point loss at Ohio St.

4.  Penn St -  won by 1-pt at Minn.  Penn St has dominated most of its games except for 3 games. A 7-pt loss at home to Ohio St,  an OT win at USC and a 1-pt win at Minn.

5.  Iowa -  won at MD by 16 points.  Iowa wins with its 5th string QB startig due to injuries.  Really,  It does not matter who plays QB for Iowa as long as Kaleb Johnson is playing RB. 

6.  Minnesota - lost by 1-pt at home to Penn St.  Minn is a good team.  Key for me is Minn beat ILL and UCLA on the road,  but lost at home to Iowa.

7.  Illinois -  won on road at Rutgers in last seconds.  The key question is Illinois really any good,  or just good enough (lucky enough)  to pull out close victories at the end of games.  In addition to last second miracle against Rut, ILL also has 2 wins in OT this year.  They feel more like a 4-4 team lucky enough to be 5-3.

8.  Washington - had the week off.  Wash has won all its home games and lost all its road games.  Key game in power rankings is that Wash did beat Mich.

9.  Michigan -  dominated NW at home.  Key games,  Mich has lost to Wash and ILL,  but has beaten Minn and USC.

10.  USC - won at UCLA to become bowl elligible..  USC's loss at MD looks worse every week.

11.  UCLA -  lost to USC at home.  UCLA was a decent team at the end despite a bad start to the season.

12.  Rutgers -  lost in last seconds at home to ILL.  Rutgers seems to have had some bad luck at home this year.

13.  Mich St -  beat Purdue at home.  MSU seemed it was ready to step it up after big win against Iowa but kinda fizzled down the stretch.

14.  Nebraska -  beat Wisc at home to become bowl elligible.  Win over Wisc stops Nebraska's free fall and saves the season.

15.  Wisconsin -  lost on road to Neb.  Maybe Wisc should have fired their defensive coordinater too.. 

16.  Northwestern. - lost on road to Mich. 

17.  Purdue -  lost on road at MSU.  Purdue is bad,  but also a little unlucky.  Losing 2 games in OT.

18.  Maryland -  lost at home to Iowa.  In the end MD lost a lot at home.  MD's only Big Ten win this year was at home by 1-pt over USC.  It's a safe bet the coach is going to get fired.

@ELA,
Demoting MD to the bottom 3 was probably overdue by a couple of weeks.

They look so bad,  I even put them below Purdue this week.   I have a hunch Locksley will be gone at the end of the season.

1)Ducks stuck here
2)Bucks stuck here after a solid home win and Meeecheegan coming in
3)Ninnies win a close one against the Minnies
4)Hoosiers,tough road loss
5)Illini 8-3 pulled a fast one and a last TD ranked 24 in the country
6)Minny tough loss have badgers on deck
7)Michigan finds an offense scoring 50,of course right before Ohio St - sandbaggers
8)Hawks turfed the Terps
9)'Skers throttled the Fading Fickels
10)Huskies they didn't lose and have the Ducks on deck
to the rest you know the drill

have a great Thanksgiving anyway everyone

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Penn State
4. Indiana
5. Iowa
6. Illinois
7. Washington
8. Michigan
9. Minnesota
10. USC
11. Nebraska
12. Wisconsin
13. Michigan State
14. UCLA
15. Rutgers
16. Northwestern
17. Maryland
18. Purdue

There are nine B1G teams that are currently .500 or better, they are:

• 8-0 Oregon
• 7-1 Ohio State
• 7-1 Penn State
• 7-1 Indiana
• 5-3 Illinois
• 5-3 Iowa
• 4-4 Minnesota
• 4-4 Washington
• 4-4 Michigan

Here, for each B1G team, are the number of games against these nine, and record:

• 6 Michigan, 1-4 with one to play
• 6 UCLA, 1-5
• 6 Michigan State, 1-5
• 6 Northwestern, 0-5 with one to play
• 5 Ohio State, 3-1 with one to play
• 5 Washington, 1-3 with one to play
• 5 Maryland, 0-4 with one to play
• 5 Purdue, 0-4 with one to play
• 4 Oregon, 3-0 with one to play
• 4 Penn State, 3-1
• 4 Illinois, 1-3
• 4 Minnesota, 1-3
• 4 Wisconsin, 0-3 with one to play
• 4 Nebraska, 0-3 with one to play
• 4 USC, 0-4
• 3 Rutgers, 2-1
• 3 Iowa, 2-1
• 3 Indiana, 2-1

My point is that the term "B1G Schedule" in an anachronism.  They are no longer homogenous enough to just think of as all the same.  There is a vast difference between playing MSU, UCLA, or M's schedule and playing RU, IA, or IU's schedule.  

The two Michigan's and UCLA each play three of the top-4 teams.  They are 0-8 in those games with one to play.  Indiana, Iowa, and Rutgers are also winless against the top-4 but it is only 0-2 with the Hoosiers and Hawkeyes both losing to Ohio State.  

1) Still Ohio State
2) Still Oregon
3) Indiana, but by a hair. Playing at OSU they were going to lose some points, but are they really better than Penn State? Hmmm.
4) Penn State: a couple of uninspiring wins, including a tough one this week, but Minnesota is the kind of team that can do that to you. Just enough to keep them below Indiana.
5) Same ol' Iowa.
6) Minnesota: going to keep them here this week. Good effort against PSU, and that's better than Illinois' very close call against Rutgers. So no change.
7) Illinois: not a great showing against Rutgers, but it's a win. Bielema might need to work on coaching his boys up when they are playing gutter teams.
8) Washington: no game, no change.
9) Michigan: better than everyone below, which doesn't say much (particularly when this is still in the bottom half of the conference).
10) USC: see Michigan.
11) Nebraska: good job, Big Red.
12) Mighigan State: winning is better than losing, and I'm frustrated by the Badgers, so I'm pushing them down.
13) Wisconsin: wins were flashes in the pan against bad teams. This team is not good.
14) UCLA: not quite in the cellar, but on the cellar stairs. Against Wisconsin it would depend on who was at home--or closer to home.
15) Rutgers: put up a pretty good fight; more of one than Northwestern.
16) Northwestern: ouch.
17) Maryland: still losing.
18) Purdue: 0-fer is 0-fer; no points for making MSU work.

Starting at the top:
I think everyone is agreed that the Ducks and Bucks are the top-2.  Personally, I'm surprised that Oregon is a near-unanimous pick for #1.  

My view is that a 1 point win by a home team isn't conclusive.  Here are Oregon's and tOSU's columns from my performance chart:

As mentioned above, I simply don't see Oregon's 1 point home win as conclusive.  

Next, Ohio State has a one-score road win at Penn State and a big win at home over IU.  Oregon didn't play them.  

The 29/28 point home wins over IL/IA seem pretty comparable to me.  

Oregon's worst performance is probably their 3 point win over UWisc and tOSU's is their 4 point win over UNL.  

Ohio State looked better against MSU (31 on the road vs 21 at home).  

Ohio State's 24 point road win over NU seems reasonably comparable to Oregon's 21 point road and home wins over UCLA and Maryland.  

The Bucks and Ducks looked about equal against Purdue.  Ohio State won by 10 more points but at home so this is about the same as winning by 10 less on the road.  Furthermore, I don't think it is wise to read too much into the difference anyway because both teams won easily and either probably could have won by a little more if they had wanted to bad enough.  

That seems awfully close to a push to me.  I lean tOSU simply because I believe that HFA is real and if it is then a team that loses on the road by 1 would win on a neutral field.  

Next we get to IU and PSU where it seems most of the board has IU ahead.  I disagree.  Here are IU's and PSU's columns:

They both lost to Ohio State but PSU looked like a relatively even match-up, IU didn't.  

The MN/M results are probably reasonably comparable but PSU has a 14 point win over IL that IU can't match due to their insanely weak schedule.  

PSU looked better against Washington.  

PSU played USC and UWisc on the road and IU played UNL at home and MSU on the road.  PSU's opponents were tougher and IU had bigger margins.  

IU looked better against UCLA.  

This is fairly close too.  I'd lean PSU for three reasons:

• I think the tOSU comparison is more important than the others and PSU wins that one easily.  
• I expect PSU to beat UMD by a lot more than 14 points.  
• I do NOT expect IU to beat PU by 39.  

As I see it, #5-#9 has to be the rest of the .500+ teams so here are their columns:


Against Oregon and Ohio State they all looked bad (21-29 point losses).  

Minnesota looked best against PSU.  

Michigan looked best against Indiana.  

Minnesota looked best against Illinois.  

Iowa comes off looking great in the comparisons against themselves.  

Iowa looked best against Minnesota.  

Illinois looked best against Michigan.  


Iowa looked best against Washington.  

The three that played USC each barely beat them.  Maybe USC is just unlucky?  

Iowa looked great against Wisconsin.  

Illinois looked best against Rutgers.  

Illinois looked best against Michigan State.  

After adjusting for HFA, they all looked about the same against UCLA.  

Michigan looked best against Northwestern.  

Minnesota looked best against Maryland.  

I typed all that out thinking that a clear #5 would emerge but that didn't happen.  It is just a muddled mess.  Looking above I have:

• 4 "bests" for Iowa (IA, MN, the UW's)
• 3 "bests" for Illinois (M, RU, MSU)
• 3 "bests" for Minnesota (PSU, IL, UMD)
• 2 "bests" for Michigan (IU, NU)

I guess that eliminates Washington because they didn't look best against any opponent.  I guess Iowa is #5.  Then I'd go IL, M, MN but that is highly debatable.