I wonder what effect high-speed rail would have on flying if we ever actually utilized it.
It's unclear. The problem with high speed rail traditionally has been that it's often as expensive as flying and as slow as driving.
For me, let's say I wanted to go from home to the Bay Area.
Flying:
- 25 minute drive to SNA
- Get there 1 hr before departure to get through security (SNA is a quick/easy airport and I have TSA precheck)
- 1 hr flight time
- 30 minutes for deplane, rental car, etc
- Total time: ~3 hours
HSR:
- 10-15 minutes drive to Irvine metro station, plus 10 minutes buffer to make sure I'm there before my scheduled train
- 1 hr train ride to LA, plus 20 minutes buffer to ensure I'm there with enough time to get to my HSR train
- 3 hrs train
- 30 minutes to get off, rental car, etc
- Total time: ~5 hours
Driving:
Now, that's anecdotal. For someone who lives near downtown LA, and would be flying out of LAX, it's significantly MORE time for them if they had to drive to LAX, park, give themselves more time for security because LAX is slow, etc. And they wouldn't have the 1 hr train ride from Irvine->LA so it would cut that time off their travel.
But I'd argue that given that there are 5 airports in the LA/Orange County megalopolis, and 3 airports in the Bay Area, that a
lot of people in this area would find flying more convenient for them than HSR, given that you have to find your way to downtown LA to access HSR. But I could be wrong... Maybe it would be such a pleasurable experience in comparison to flying that people would flock to it.