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This is based on these assumptions.

CFP rankings - 1.Ga, 2.Mich, 3.TCU, 4.USC, 5.OSU, 6.Bama, 7.Tenn, 8.PSU

Big Ten picking order by school - 1.Mich, 2.OSU, 3.PSU, 4.Purdue, 5.ILL, 6.Iowa, 7.Minn, 8.MD, 9.Wisc

Michigan - CFP- Fiesta Bowl vs TCU
Alternative scenarios- CFP Peach Bowl or NY6 Orange Bowl

OSU - Rose Bowl vs PAC
Alternative Scenerios - CFP Peach vs Georgia

PSU - NY6 Cotton Bowl vs Tulane,  Alternative- Rose, Orange or Citrus

Purdue - Citrus Bowl vs SEC,  Alternative - Rose or Reliaquest

Illinois - Reliaquest Bowl vs SEC,  Alternative - Citrus or Duke's Mayo

Iowa - Duke's Mayo  vs. ACC,  Alternative - Reliaquest or Music

Minn - Pinstripe vs. ACC,  Alternative - Music or Duke's Mayo

MD - Music City Bowl vs SEC,  Alternative - Guaranteed Rate or Duke's Mayo

Wisc - Guarunteed Rate vs Big 12,  Alternative - Quick Lane or Music

No Big Ten School - Quick Lane vs MAC

MSU, Rut, ind, Neb, NW - No Bowl

Unfortunately Minn gets bumped down to the Pinstripe because it's never been there and MD went in 2021, Wisc in 2018, Iowa in 2017.  That means MD gets bumped up to the Music City Bowl or maybe the Duke's Mayo Bowl

There are still a couple of crazy scenerois that could play out like Purdue beating Mich or LSU beating Georgia.  Mich and Ga would still most likely make the playoffs but this means giving  the Rose to Purdue or the Sugar to LSU whereas if Purdue or LSU lose, they are not getting a NY6 bowl.  There is also a slight chance Mich could get bumped to the Orange if it loses.  And it's still not clear who would jump into the CFP #4 spot if USC or TCU lose. Would it be OSU or Bama jumping into the playoffs?

One thing is certain.  Michigan is not going to the Rose Bowl.  If Mich beats Purdue, they will be at least #2 in the playoffs.  If Mich loses to Purdue, then Purdue goes to the Rose Bowl.

maybe those guys don't like PJ?

I don't have a good answer for what happened last year but this year Minn finished in a 3-way tie with ILL and Iowa at 5-4 and Minn lost to both of them.  So when picking the Big Ten's sacrificial lamb to go to the Pinstripe,  who do you send?  Everybody west of the Appalachians hates the Pinstripe Bowl with a passion. MD went last year.

One thing I am not clear on is what is the rule for the Pinstripe for repeat teams.  I know the original contract from 2014-2021 was an 8-year contract that said that the Big Ten had to pick 8 different teams in 8 years.  When that original contract was extended to 2025,  did that imply the Big Ten was supposed to take 12 different teams in 12 years?  If not, then Wisc might be a candidate for the Pinstripe.  Send Minn to the Music or Duke's Mayo and MD to the guarunteed Rate Bowl instead.  Not sure how Wisc would feel about that, but Wisc is definitely at the bottom of the pecking order this year with a 4-5 conference record and 6-6 overall record.

My point is that head to head didn't matter one lick last year.  Not only that, but they boosted a PSU team ahead of all three with a worse record.  Minnesota was the "sacrificial lamb" last year.  Fleck played it cool and exuded graciousness for the opportunity to play in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl as an 8-4 (6-3) team.  But I have little doubt that there was consternation behind closed doors....and with the selection process.

I just cannot imagine the Big Ten giving the Gophers the short stick for a second year in a row.  Iowa has a 7-5 overall record, so I think they'd be the obvious choice to go to the Pinstripe.

My point is that head to head didn't matter one lick last year.  Not only that, but they boosted a PSU team ahead of all three with a worse record.  Minnesota was the "sacrificial lamb" last year.  Fleck played it cool and exuded graciousness for the opportunity to play in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl as an 8-4 (6-3) team.  But I have little doubt that there was consternation behind closed doors....and with the selection process.

I just cannot imagine the Big Ten giving the Gophers the short stick for a second year in a row.  Iowa has a 7-5 overall record, so I think they'd be the obvious choice to go to the Pinstripe.

Fair enough.  I did not know this had upset Minnesota fans so much.  I guess I have a different definition of the short stick after you get past the Reliaquest in the bowl picking order.  After that it is more about location than anything.  I consider New York and Detroit awful locations for a winter  bowl game but Arizona, Nashville and Charlotte are good locations.  So it's not that big a deal if you get sent to Arizona or Nashvillle or Charlotte as long as you did not go to the same one recently. 

But you are right.  PSU should have got a much worse bowl last year and Minn deserved better  So there is a history of schools getting screwed in the bowl pecking order that's hard to predict.

Fair enough.  I did not know this had upset Minnesota fans so much.  I guess I have a different definition of the short stick after you get past the Reliaquest in the bowl picking order.  After that it is more about location than anything.  I consider New York and Detroit awful locations for a winter  bowl game but Arizona, Nashville and Charlotte are good locations.  So it's not that big a deal if you get sent to Arizona or Nashvillle or Charlotte as long as you did not go to the same one recently. 

But you are right.  PSU should have got a much worse bowl last year and Minn deserved better  So there is a history of schools getting screwed in the bowl pecking order that's hard to predict.

I think it's less about location....and more about game/matchup.  But I'm sure that plays a factor too seeing as how....while never verified....it sounds like the Gophers....when it was determined that they weren't getting the Music City or LV Bowls....opted for Arizona rather than NYC because of weather/fan base in the area.

But bowl games are a good chance to showoff the team to potential recruits.  The Guaranteed Rate Bowl against a 6-6 West Virginia team is a giant who gives a rats ass.  Playing a 7-5, 8-4, or even 9-3 team from the SEC or ACC is a much more exciting matchup and viewership numbers of the games back that up.  From a fan standpoint....I'd like to see a game against the best possible opponent.

I think it's less about location....and more about game/matchup.  

Unfortunately, it's more about butts in seats / eyeballs on TV.

Penn state had no business jumping Purdue, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, but they bring the viewership more than those three schools.  At the end of the day, the bowls care about money more than anything.

attendance is really important cause the bowl officials are usually working with locals that want the hotels and bars and restaurants full

but, the TV network honks also have a voice and try to get the matchups that give the best TV ratings

PSU might do better in that area