header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 11

 (Read 1409 times)

LittlePig

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 1367
  • Liked:
Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 11
« on: November 08, 2023, 09:24:07 AM »
Big Ten currently has 5 schools that are bowl elligible

Ohio St 9-0, Mich 9-0, PSU 8-1, Iowa 7-2, Rut 6-3

1 team is eliminated PUR 2-7

At least 2 more schools are guarunteed to make a bowl, and 1 more is guarunteed to be eliminated because they play each other.  So Big Ten could have as many as 12 schools make a bowl and as few as 7.  Odds are it will be around 9 teams make a bowl.  Teams still alive are listed below.

MD 5-4,  needs 1 win, games @Neb,  Mich, @Rut,  chances to make a bowl 75%

Neb 5-4, needs 1 win, games MD, @Wisc, Iowa,  bowl chances 88%

Wisc 5-4, needs 1 win, games NW, Neb, @Minn,  bowl chances 88%

Minn 5-4,  needs 1 win, games @Pur, @OSU, Wisc, bowl chances 75%

2 teams are 2 wins from being bowl elligle and they play each other.  Odds are good the winner of NW-ILL game goes to a bowl,  the loser does not.

NW 4-5, Needs 2 wins, games @Wisc, PUR, @ILL,  bowl chances 50%

ILL 4-5,  Needs 2 wins, games Ind, @Iowa, NW,  bowl chances 50%

There are 2 teams that need 3 wins and they play each other.

Ind 3-6,  needs 3 wins, games @ILL, MSU,  @Pur,  bowl chances 13%

MSU 3-6, needs 3 wins, games @OSU, @Ind, PSU,  bowl chances <1%






« Last Edit: November 08, 2023, 09:37:45 AM by LittlePig »

TyphonInc

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 1930
  • Easily Amused
  • Liked:
Re: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility
« Reply #1 on: November 08, 2023, 09:37:33 AM »
Where are you coming up with those stats?

LittlePig

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 1367
  • Liked:
Re: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 11
« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2023, 09:46:00 AM »
Where are you coming up with those stats?
Lol,  I figure any game not against OSU, Mich and PSU,  a team has a 50% chance of winning.  Any game against OSU, Mich, PSU the teams have a zero percent chance.  I could go into more detail if you like,  but that's the idea.

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71566
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 11
« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2023, 11:09:36 AM »
The SEC well may not fill up its bowling calendar.  Florida has to win out, and could but probably won't.  Arky has to win out and probably won't.  South Carolina, same thing.  Miss State, probably no bowl.  Vandy?  Ha.

O&#039;Gara: Bowl or no bowl? Breaking down each SEC team&#039;s chances at the postseason (saturdaydownsouth.com)
O'Gara: Bowl or no bowl? Breaking down each SEC team's chances at the postseason (saturdaydownsouth.com)

Abba

  • Player
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 995
  • Liked:
Re: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 11
« Reply #4 on: November 08, 2023, 12:34:32 PM »
Florida just has to win 1 more game, but I agree.  They probably won't.

ELA

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 20330
  • Liked:
Re: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 11
« Reply #5 on: November 08, 2023, 12:53:53 PM »
When they created the Motor City Bowl, and Perles was the first commissioner, back when it expanded Big Ten bowl tie ins from 5 to 6, everyone joked that was going to be the MSU Bowl.

Instead, absent ending the season on a 4 game winning streak, we are at 25 years, and MSU has never played in it, because they are always too good, or not good enough to be bowl eligible.

Since then, the only times MSU were 6-5 (or 6-6) once they went to 12, were 2001, 2009, 2012, and 2019.  In the 26 years since then, MSU has been a top 15 team 9 times, and ineligible 8 times.

It's a roller coaster baby!

LittlePig

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 1367
  • Liked:
Re: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 11
« Reply #6 on: November 08, 2023, 04:40:04 PM »
Big Ten Bowl Projectiins

CFP playoff Bowl -, Sugar - Georgia VS Oregon
CFP playoff Bowl - Rose - Michigan VS FSU
NY6 Bowl - Fiesta - Wash VS Ohio St
NY6 Bowl - Peach -  Bama VS Tulane
NY6 Bowl - Cotton -  Texas VS PSU
NY6 Bowl - Orange -  Ole Miss VS Lou

Big Ten Bowl projections

1.  Mich - CFP playoff Bowl - Rose
2.  Ohio St -  NY6 Bowl - Fiesta
3.  PSU - NY6 Bowl - Cotton
4.  Neb - Citrus (Orlando)
5.  Rut - Reliaquest (Tampa)
6.  Iowa -  Las Vegas
7.  Wisc - Music City ( Nashville)
8.  Minn - Guarunteed rate bowl (Pheonix arizona) 
9.  ILL - Pinstripe (NYC)
10.  NW or MD - quick lane bowl ( Detroit)

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 25258
  • Liked:
Re: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 11
« Reply #7 on: November 08, 2023, 05:26:20 PM »
Big Ten Bowl projections

4.  Neb - Citrus (Orlando)
5.  Rut - Reliaquest (Tampa)
6.  Iowa -  Las Vegas
7.  Wisc - Music City ( Nashville)
8.  Minn - Guarunteed rate bowl (Pheonix arizona)
9.  ILL - Pinstripe (NYC)
10.  NW or MD - quick lane bowl ( Detroit)
I see bloodbath. That's all I see.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

LittlePig

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 1367
  • Liked:
Re: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 11
« Reply #8 on: November 09, 2023, 07:37:28 AM »
I saw on another board that there may be only 76 bowl elligible schools with 80 slots to fill.  This is a moving number that may move up or down as teams win and lose.    But given the current projections,  The next 2  slots #77 and #78 would go to JMU and Jax St,  who are in the 2nd year of transition to FBS from FCS.

After that the final 2 slots are filled with teams with 5-7 records,  by APR rank.  Here are the top ranked APR schools but a lot of these may get 6 wins anyway.  So there is a chance NW, Wisc and Minn might get a bowl bid anyway with 5 wins.

Northwestern 996
Wisconsin 996
Clemson 995
Cincinnati 994
Minnesota 992
Wake Forest 992
Boise State 988
Iowa State 987
Rice 987
Auburn 985
Mississippi State 985
Central Florida 984
Pitt 983
South Carolina 983
Virginia 983
Michigan State 982
Stanford 982
Ball State 980
Baylor 980
« Last Edit: November 09, 2023, 09:52:12 AM by LittlePig »

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71566
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 11
« Reply #9 on: November 09, 2023, 07:55:30 AM »
I think we'll see 4-5 5 win teams in bowls.  And I think many of us here will semi--watch those games.

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 25258
  • Liked:
Re: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 11
« Reply #10 on: November 09, 2023, 09:44:48 AM »
I'm surprised BB doesn't have Illinois on that APR list. He always ran a tight academic ship. Maybe he lost a lot of players when he came in. I don't know.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

ELA

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 20330
  • Liked:
Re: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 11
« Reply #11 on: November 09, 2023, 09:54:50 AM »
The APR doesn't really make sense as a metric in the transfer portal era

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71566
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 11
« Reply #12 on: November 09, 2023, 09:54:57 AM »

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 37545
  • Liked:
Re: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 11
« Reply #13 on: November 09, 2023, 10:08:22 AM »
I'm surprised BB doesn't have Illinois on that APR list. He always ran a tight academic ship. Maybe he lost a lot of players when he came in. I don't know.
he doesn't have to take the same recruits as he did in Madison
Wonder how he did at Arky?
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.