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Topic: Best #21
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Cincydawg · « **Reply #84 on:** August 28, 2018, 07:11:41 AM »

Well, that looked good when I posted it and the formatting blew up, my bad.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/herschel-walker-1.html

bayareabadger · « **Reply #85 on:** August 28, 2018, 09:22:43 AM »

Quote from: FearlessF on August 27, 2018, 02:47:05 PM

number of attempts and Average per rush were in bold to show there's no correlation between a high number of attempts and a low average per rush

for example, Rozier had the highest number of attempts by far, but also had the highest average

another example, Reynolds was on the low side for attempts, but had the lowest average

true, if you are tracking total yards, you either need a very high number of attempts or a very high average. Having both of course leads to the highest total.

Among a set of backs who both have high YPC and high carries numbers at a school that doesn't overload its backs, yes, this is true. It's also true that a lot of Nebraska's highest ever YPC guys had low carries number and top carries guys didn't have robust YPC numbers.
Of course, we're using kind of funny numbers to get there. Career numbers are ... weird to say the least. They measure opportunity as much as anything, and in college cut off as a good player is still in the midst of his ascent. Then there's the reality of players who run well (often generating good YPC) get more work. There seems to be an upper limit of carries that seem wise in a game, a season and I suppose a game-in, game-out basis. Some buck this trend. Many don't.

Then there's the architecture of opportunity. Looking at wingbacks in flexbone systems, it seems likely being the pitch man on the option yields big-play opportunities. Nebraska I-backs had that. Cincy mentioned the ups and downs for Hershel, but we can look at a more recent back. Le'veon Bell was better than a 4.7 YPC back. But it'll never be 100 percent clear, did his 382 carries heavy usage factor in, or did the factors that lowered his YPC (bad passing game) drive up his carries.

And then we must ask, is YPC THAT good a number to use? Irving Fryer averaged 12 and 13 YPC his last two years, and he didn't get to 25 carries. It tends to favor explosiveness a bit more than consistency, which is a factor (is one 80-yard runs and three no gains better than four 20-yard runs?).

What's also interesting is that Nebraska has actually been to a degree practicing the philosophy of tamping down carries for more effectiveness forever. Think of this: No Huskers runner, by NCAA stats, has averaged 24 carries. That's kind of amazing. Nebraska had some great backs, but they never rode one to that level? Seems like a case of all the pieces fit.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #86 on:** August 28, 2018, 09:28:15 AM »

I was reading an article about D'Andre Swift last year that noted he had a gaudy YPC with fewer carriers of course than Chubb/Michel, but that he also played more downs against defenses that were gassed. Michel noted he was glad Chubb started because the first few carries were the toughest (he was joking, but correct).

Starting is different from cleaning up.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #87 on:** August 28, 2018, 08:20:02 PM »

It seems like someone doubting what I've been saying seems to think RBs are machines that just keep going at the same rate, regardless of how many carries they get. This is obviously false, and it's not even the point I want to make here.

In doing a ton of research for my college football game, I could not believe how little even the best RBs carried the ball, as % of the team's total carries. The normal ceiling is around 60%. Beforehand, I would've guessed something like 80% or so, at least for the great backs.
RBs only carry the ball up to 60% of the time because they're people, and people get tired. So even against a tired defense, if you kept feeding the ball to the same guy over and over and over, his YPC would obviously decrease.

Does the 60% approximation surprise anyone esle?

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #88 on:** August 28, 2018, 08:21:47 PM »

On Mike Rozier:

There is a reason he never had a 300-carry season.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #89 on:** August 28, 2018, 09:29:21 PM »

Given that most offenses endeavor to be somewhere around 60:40 run:pass, that figure does not surprise me at all.

There are 72 plays per game in CFB, or so I discovered. Sixty percent of that is about 42 plays. Nobody is going to hand the ball off to the same guy 42 times in a game unless the guy is superman or something.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/sports/1981/11/08/walker-rallies-georgia-past-florida/94afcb4b-69b8-4802-a1c0-ac503d1e7e74/?utm_term=.f9b9e58d26ae

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #90 on:** August 28, 2018, 09:31:52 PM »

Ah, but why not? According to some, said RB would just march on, at his 7.3 yards per carry clip all day long....

Cincydawg · « **Reply #91 on:** August 28, 2018, 09:52:28 PM »

Some RBs might on occasion. Most offenses are going to spread the ball out these days obviously.

I don't think it's a good plan today when LBs go 245 and safeties go 225.

Reality here is probably somewhere in the middle rather than one argument OR the other. There is no doubt at some point, RBs do get tired and less effective and need a breather at least. They also get dinged up in a game. At the same time, going from 10 carries to 20 carries a game is not going to affect most backs.

Some might level out between 20 and 30 and then start to degrade.

FearlessF · « **Reply #92 on:** August 28, 2018, 11:01:01 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 28, 2018, 08:21:47 PM

On Mike Rozier:

There is a reason he never had a 300-carry season.

not just one reason, many reasons - Rozier's career
1981 - Bates at fullback, Gill at QB
R. Craig att 173 yrd 1060 avg 6.1
M. Rozier att 151 yrd 943 avg 6.2
P. Bates att 94 yrd 555 avg 5.9
T. Gill att 76 yrd 263 avg 3.5
this shows 500 of the 661 total rushes
So, since Rozier had the better average, give him all 324 carries?
1982 - Wilkening fullback, Smith I-back, Gill QB, Fryer wingback
Rozier att 242 1689 avg 7.0
Craig att 119 586 avg 4.9
Smith att 56 569 avg 10.2
Gill att 101 497 avg 4.9
Wilkening att 80 413 avg 5.2
Fryar att 20 245 avg 12.3
So, Osborne was brilliant, most carries went to Rozier, better average than Craig. But, remember Craig was playing some fullback. Obviously, the 3rd string Smith playing in mop up duty when the defense had taken out starters should have had 300+ carries?
1983 - Schellen fullback, Gill QB, Fryer wing
M. Rozier att 275 2148 avg 7.8
Gill att 109 531 avg 4.9
Schellen att 77 450 avg 5.8
J. Smith att 78 439 avg 5.6
Fryar att 23 318 avg 13.8
there ya go, Osborne is s genius, greatest offense, set many NCAA records, BECAUSE????
Rozier had the best average AND the highest number of carries
one reason Rozier didn't have 300+ carries in 1983? Osborne liked to pull the starters when up by 4 TDs.
halftime score - final score:

Penn St. 21-0 final 44-6 Rozier 16 carries
Wyoming 42-3 final 56-20 Rozier 19 carries
Minnesota 42-10 final 84-13 Rozier 15 carries
UCLA 14-10 final 42-10   Rozier 26 carries
Syracuse 35-0 final 63-7 Rozier 19 carries
Oklahoma St. trailed 7-10 final 14-10 Rozier 25 carries
Missouri 20-13 final 34-13 Rozier 24 carries
Colorado 14-12 final 69-19 48 point 3rd quarter, missed an extra point
Kansas St. 38-5 final 51-25   Rozier 23 carries
Iowa St. 35-14 final 72-29 Rozier 26 carries
Kansas 41-0 final 67-13 Rozier 31 carries At halftime, Rozier had 230 yards and all of his TDs (he had the fourth TD 5:33 into the second quarter)
Oklahoma 14-14 final 28-21 Rozier 32 carries

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #93 on:** August 28, 2018, 11:49:31 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on August 28, 2018, 11:01:01 PM

not just one reason, many reasons - Rozier's career
1981 - Bates at fullback, Gill at QB
R. Craig att 173 yrd 1060 avg 6.1
M. Rozier att 151 yrd 943 avg 6.2
P. Bates att 94 yrd 555 avg 5.9
T. Gill att 76 yrd 263 avg 3.5
this shows 500 of the 661 total rushes
So, since Rozier had the better average, give him all 324 carries?
1982 - Wilkening fullback, Smith I-back, Gill QB, Fryer wingback
Rozier att 242 1689 avg 7.0
Craig att 119 586 avg 4.9
Smith att 56 569 avg 10.2
Gill att 101 497 avg 4.9
Wilkening att 80 413 avg 5.2
Fryar att 20 245 avg 12.3
So, Osborne was brilliant, most carries went to Rozier, better average than Craig. But, remember Craig was playing some fullback. Obviously, the 3rd string Smith playing in mop up duty when the defense had taken out starters should have had 300+ carries?

Let's focus on your absurd comments.
1981 - both top backs' YPC were nearly even. This is ideal. I'm not sure why you decide to mouth off here, it makes it look like you genuinely don't understand, and not just being a horse's ass.

1982 - If you have a backup averaging 10+ YPC, why not give him more carries? The whole point of all of this is that I'm saying if you give him more carries, his YPC will decrease, because he's not a genuine 10 YPC-quality RB. No one is. But if he does, somehow, maintain his inflated average, why then those carries you're taking from Rozier are netting you more yards, and you have nothing to complain about anyway.

How is this still unclear???

Cincydawg · « **Reply #94 on:** August 29, 2018, 07:45:30 AM »

Would folks agree that the jump from 10 carries to 20 would probably not have much impact on YPC?

The jump from 20 to 3- would start to have impact, and to 40 or more would have impact on nearly every back in history?

FearlessF · « **Reply #95 on:** August 29, 2018, 11:26:20 AM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 28, 2018, 11:49:31 PM

Let's focus on your absurd comments.
1981 - both top backs' YPC were nearly even. This is ideal. I'm not sure why you decide to mouth off here, it makes it look like you genuinely don't understand, and not just being a horse's ass.

1982 - If you have a backup averaging 10+ YPC, why not give him more carries? The whole point of all of this is that I'm saying if you give him more carries, his YPC will decrease, because he's not a genuine 10 YPC-quality RB. No one is. But if he does, somehow, maintain his inflated average, why then those carries you're taking from Rozier are netting you more yards, and you have nothing to complain about anyway.

How is this still unclear???

oh, I'm certainly just being a horse's ass
1982 with the 3rd string guy averaging 10, why not give him more carries? You answered your own question, because his average would go down. #rd string guy, as I explained was going against the 2nd string defense, running behind the Husker's 2nd string O-line which was still awesome. The game had long since been decided and there wasn't much defense being played.

If the first string guy would have had those extra 10 carries it's almost a sure thing that his average would have gone UP, not down.

how is this still unclear to you?

FearlessF · « **Reply #96 on:** August 29, 2018, 11:32:27 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 29, 2018, 07:45:30 AM

Would folks agree that the jump from 10 carries to 20 would probably not have much impact on YPC?

The jump from 20 to 3- would start to have impact, and to 40 or more would have impact on nearly every back in history?

yes, from a basic level this seems logical.
but, there are just too many variables.
How many backs in history have averaged 40 carries per game? Probably a small sample size.
the 40 carries per game might not have much impact the first 3 or 4 games of the season, but yes, by the 10th or 11th game it certainly would wear them down.
Then there are those backs in history such as John Riggins "The diesel" that seem to get stronger and get larger gains as their carries increase and the game goes longer. Because the defense wears down and the back and O-line sense this.

FearlessF · « **Reply #97 on:** August 29, 2018, 11:34:33 AM »

my point is simple

JUST adding a few more carries per game or even doubling the carries doesn't assure the average per rush will go down. It's not a mathematical certainty.

there are many variables

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Topic: Best #21

Cincydawg

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