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Topic: Basketball Coaching Carousel
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bayareabadger · « **Reply #98 on:** February 23, 2023, 10:21:36 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on February 23, 2023, 09:22:56 AM

Looking for opinions from other Ohio State guys such as @MaximumSam and myself but really, I'm more interested in more detached, dispassionate, and rational takes from neutral observers. What say you: @ELA @Kris60 @847badgerfan @boilerbanger

@bayareabadger
@betarhoalphadelta

Etc?

I’m flat in the middle. If they fired him, I wouldn’t cry foul. You can’t bomb out like that in the indignant about your job status.

that said, the building is not gonna burn down if you give him one more chance with a bunch of talented kids. As others have said, you do your due diligence, see if an absolute no-brainer will take the job. And if that guy is not there, it’s do or die next year and reassess.

bayareabadger · « **Reply #99 on:** February 23, 2023, 10:25:14 AM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 23, 2023, 10:10:45 AM

I'm not following close enough to know if this is a "must fire" situation, but it also doesn't appear to be a situation that I'd disagree with firing him.

Six years in. No real accomplishments. Baseline performance below the level OSU has historically been able to reach. Team trending down rather than up, despite having talent. His best (first) season's results with a core Matta built.

People were calling for Painter to be canned after two bad seasons, but Painter had actually accomplished something prior to that, by recruiting and winning with the Baby Boilers and making the S16 twice. If Painter had Holtmann's resume when he had his two bad seasons, I would have said he was a failed experiment and canned him.

If I'm the OSU AD, I'm asking "what do I see in Chris Holtmann that makes me think he can do any better than what he's shown in his first 6 years?" And if I don't have a good answer, I find someone else.

In retrospect, it is a little wild that Painter survived missing the tournament twice in a row. Purdue this is strictly a much more successful program than Wisconsin, and I feel like missing twice would get you let go.

ELA · « **Reply #100 on:** February 23, 2023, 10:39:03 AM »

John Beilein was trending towards being fired in 2011. He went 10-22 in Year 1, then went 20-13 and made the tourney in Year 2, but regressed to 15-17 in Year 3. In Year 4, they were on a 6 game losing streak, sitting at 1-6 in Big Ten play, looking to go 3 of 4 years not even being NIT eligible, with a road game at Michigan State up next, a building where they hadn't won in 14 years. They pulled out the win, kicked off a 9-3 finish to get back in the tournament, and then 2 years later played for a national title.

I then remember in 2016, MichiFan was saying it was time for Beilein to retire. They were bad in 2015, and 2016 was trending in the wrong direction. They wound up upsetting #1 seed Indiana in the BTT quarterfinals, and that was enough for them to sneak into the First 4. He brought in Yaklich to overhaul the defense, and once again, 2 years later they were in a national title game.

bayareabadger · « **Reply #101 on:** February 23, 2023, 10:57:27 AM »

I remember that 2013-14 team being like “yeah, that’s good enough not to be fired.” And then they hang a banner, even with a 4-13 upset, then 31-8 and that title game run.

I felt like late 2017 was big too. They were at 14-9, 4-6 before getting MSU, IU, overrated Wisconsin and Purdue down the stretch.

Still, 20-11, 10-8 is very “that’s good enough not to be retired,” range, but then they win the BTT starting on Thursday and make the Sweet 16 by barely edging OkSU and upsetting No. 10 Louisville.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #102 on:** February 23, 2023, 11:11:07 AM »

Quote from: ELA on February 23, 2023, 09:49:58 AM

I don't think it has reached a point where you have to fire him.

Losing out seems more likely than not at this point. If they do, they'll finish this year at 3-17/11-21, losers of 13 straight and 18 of 19.

More importantly, in my view, is this:

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 23, 2023, 10:10:45 AM

Six years in. No real accomplishments. Baseline performance below the level OSU has historically been able to reach. Team trending down rather than up, despite having talent. His best (first) season's results with a core Matta built.

This, to me is the bigger issue. The current season is awful by any standard but if Holtmann had any real accomplishments to offset it, it wouldn't be so bad.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #103 on:** February 23, 2023, 11:45:08 AM »

Quote from: bayareabadger on February 23, 2023, 10:25:14 AM

In retrospect, it is a little wild that Painter survived missing the tournament twice in a row. Purdue this is strictly a much more successful program than Wisconsin, and I feel like missing twice would get you let go.

Quote from: ELA on February 23, 2023, 10:39:03 AM

John Beilein was trending towards being fired in 2011. He went 10-22 in Year 1, then went 20-13 and made the tourney in Year 2, but regressed to 15-17 in Year 3. In Year 4, they were on a 6 game losing streak, sitting at 1-6 in Big Ten play, looking to go 3 of 4 years not even being NIT eligible, with a road game at Michigan State up next, a building where they hadn't won in 14 years. They pulled out the win, kicked off a 9-3 finish to get back in the tournament, and then 2 years later played for a national title.

I then remember in 2016, MichiFan was saying it was time for Beilein to retire. They were bad in 2015, and 2016 was trending in the wrong direction. They wound up upsetting #1 seed Indiana in the BTT quarterfinals, and that was enough for them to sneak into the First 4. He brought in Yaklich to overhaul the defense, and once again, 2 years later they were in a national title game.

The difference between Painter in 2013/14 and Beilein in 2011 and 2016 is that those guys actually had real accomplishments prior to those lulls.

Painter prior to 2014:

BTT Champion in 2009
S16 in 2009
League title in 2010
S16 in 2010

Beilein prior to 2011:

Not much, but he won the league in his fifth year. Holtmann didn't win the league in his first five years and he's long since been eliminated in year six.

Beilein prior to 2016:

League title in 2012
National Championship Game in 2013
League title in 2014
E8 in 2014

Holtmann has nowhere near the highs that Painter and Beilein had prior to their lulls. Additionally, their lulls were nowhere near as bad as Holtmann's:

Beilein's worst season at Michigan was 5-13 in his first year. After that it was 7-11 in year three.
Painter's worst season at Purdue was 3-13 in his first year. After that it was 5-13 in year nine.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #104 on:** February 23, 2023, 11:53:32 AM »

Quote from: bayareabadger on February 23, 2023, 10:25:14 AM

In retrospect, it is a little wild that Painter survived missing the tournament twice in a row. Purdue this is strictly a much more successful program than Wisconsin, and I feel like missing twice would get you let go.

Painter had accomplishments behind him. The team was struggling before he took over from Keady. Keady had missed the NCAAT in 4 of his final 5 seasons. It was, legitimately, a rebuild.

Painter had a bad first year, but then led the team to six straight tournaments, including two S16s (where they lost to the 1 seed, certainly no embarrassment). In that 6 year stretch he took 1 league title and finished 2nd 3 other times. Annual win totals were in the mid-20s for most of that stretch, with one year getting to 29 wins (including BTT/NCAAT of course). He showed he could recruit as well.

While there was grumbling that he was a one-hit wonder with the Baby Boilers, at least he actually DID something with those teams [and a lot of people think he'd have achieved more if Hummel hadn't had ACL tears in consecutive seasons, which sorta gave him an extra pass]. It's also different from Holtmann in that Painter was specifically brought in a bit young and green; he'd only been a HC for one season at SIU and it could be argued that he was merely coaching Bruce Weber's team at that point.

So while I think Purdue has higher expectations for basketball than Wisconsin or OSU, Painter had actually accomplished a lot more to take a program that had been in the doldrums and actually done something with it before those two seasons. That, coupled with the fact that he was a Boilermaker through and through, gave him a little extra goodwill.

I suspect there were some hard discussions and that Painter probably told the the AD "here's where I think I made the mistakes that got us here, and here's my plan for how to get out of this", and the AD accepted it and trusted him.

MaximumSam · « **Reply #105 on:** February 23, 2023, 12:12:10 PM »

Quote

LoL. Did you type this in jest? You can't be serious. Unfortunately, I've long since given up hope that Notre Dame or any other school would solve this problem for us.

I wouldn't think either is likely, but I think Gene firing him is almost certainly not going to happen. Whether another school makes a run at him is a different question. There are other decent jobs likely to come open - Georgetown comes to mind. While I tease Buckeye fans for acting like making the tourney is a no big deal, there are lots of programs out there that are tourney starved. Notre Dame will miss it this year and has one appearance in six years. They'd look at Holtmann's track record as a godsend. St. John's could possibly come open, they have one appearance in 8 years.

bayareabadger · « **Reply #106 on:** February 23, 2023, 12:24:15 PM »

The question of him leaving speaks to the vibe in the building question.

If things are just bad behind the scenes, more likely he won’t stick it out for the cash, or the admin would be quicker to move.

I’ve no doubt a bigger part of the reason Painter got the leeway wasn’t one conference title and two Sweet 16s (conference tournament titles are nice footnotes) but was the fact his bosses both liked and believed in him.

bayareabadger · « **Reply #107 on:** February 23, 2023, 12:30:15 PM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 23, 2023, 11:53:32 AM

Painter had accomplishments behind him. The team was struggling before he took over from Keady. Keady had missed the NCAAT in 4 of his final 5 seasons. It was, legitimately, a rebuild.

Painter had a bad first year, but then led the team to six straight tournaments, including two S16s (where they lost to the 1 seed, certainly no embarrassment). In that 6 year stretch he took 1 league title and finished 2nd 3 other times. Annual win totals were in the mid-20s for most of that stretch, with one year getting to 29 wins (including BTT/NCAAT of course). He showed he could recruit as well.

While there was grumbling that he was a one-hit wonder with the Baby Boilers, at least he actually DID something with those teams [and a lot of people think he'd have achieved more if Hummel hadn't had ACL tears in consecutive seasons, which sorta gave him an extra pass]. It's also different from Holtmann in that Painter was specifically brought in a bit young and green; he'd only been a HC for one season at SIU and it could be argued that he was merely coaching Bruce Weber's team at that point.

So while I think Purdue has higher expectations for basketball than Wisconsin or OSU, Painter had actually accomplished a lot more to take a program that had been in the doldrums and actually done something with it before those two seasons. That, coupled with the fact that he was a Boilermaker through and through, gave him a little extra goodwill.

I suspect there were some hard discussions and that Painter probably told the the AD "here's where I think I made the mistakes that got us here, and here's my plan for how to get out of this", and the AD accepted it and trusted him.

This is all true, but in our modern era, going from 26 to 22 to 16 to 15 wins, with a drop in finish of 2nd, 6th, 7th 12th, that’ll end a lot of tenures. And the top of that last roster only had a couple young talents who ended up mattering, with a good-not-great class coming in.

But belief in the core competency of the coach matters, as you said.

(This is not to pile on. I just fell into a details rabbit hole)

ELA · « **Reply #108 on:** February 23, 2023, 01:18:16 PM »

Apparently Painter was EXTREMELY close to taking the Missouri job in 2014, per CBS, because he was frustrated with the frustration

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #109 on:** February 23, 2023, 02:03:47 PM »

Quote from: ELA on February 23, 2023, 01:18:16 PM

Apparently Painter was EXTREMELY close to taking the Missouri job in 2014, per CBS, because he was frustrated with the frustration

That was much earlier. 2011 - https://www.columbiatribune.com/story/sports/college/basketball/2011/03/30/painter-spurns-missouri/21417626007/

His frustration was reportedly that the Purdue administration wasn't giving him appropriate resources for paying assistant coaches and for recruiting. Morgan Burke did a lot of good for Purdue Athletics, but he tended to choose "cheap" as often as possible when making decisions, and Painter felt like he wouldn't be able to build the program he wanted to build without better support.

Another factor was that Painter was divorced in 2013, and many believe that impacted the bad years as well.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #110 on:** February 23, 2023, 03:31:21 PM »

Thank you: @847badgerfan , @ELA , @betarhoalphadelta , @bayareabadger for your thoughts.

I really like that about this place. On the team boards people are more emotionally invested so everyone tends to harden into either @MaximumSam 's or my camp and it is difficult to get dispassionate analysis or rational discussion.

I wanted to move on at the end of last season but I understood that was a pretty extreme position. I went into this season hoping to be proven wrong but it hasn't worked out that way.

Although I wanted to move on things were not all that bad even during the five game losing streak preceeding the win over Iowa.

In the last eight games, however, the team has absolutely cratered:

9 point loss at IL - Eh, not THAT bad
16 point loss at IU - ugh
5 point loss AT HOME to UW - at least it was close?
8 point loss at M - always tough to take a loss to them
6 point loss AT HOME to NU - this is a team that tOSU flat dominated on NYD at their place. They are improving, we are regressing.
21 point loss AT HOME to MSU - It wasn't even that close. This was a level of futility not seen in Columbus in a generation and generationally awful teams need new coaches.
17 point loss to Iowa - ugh
27 point loss to PU - it wasn't even that close.

This team is regressing badly. They've gone from unlucky (though I would point out that poor late game coaching led to a lot of the earlier bad luck) but competitive to a complete dumpster fire 🔥.

At this point they are not a team so much as a collection of good players who coincidentally wore matching shirts.

Even if @MaximumSam gets his wish and Holtmann gets another year, his seat will be white-hot and it will be this scenario:

Quote from: bayareabadger on February 23, 2023, 10:21:36 AM

give him one more chance with a bunch of talented kids.

It will be a final chance.

Then there is a chance it will be another "meh" season of not competing for the B1G Title, getting an NCAA bid, and getting bounced the first weekend. Then we'll be back where we were at the end of 2022 and Ohio State Basketball will remain irrelevant and our title drought will grow and nothing will change.

MaximumSam · « **Reply #111 on:** February 23, 2023, 06:51:50 PM »

Quote

It will be a final chance.

Then there is a chance it will be another "meh" season of not competing for the B1G Title, getting an NCAA bid, and getting bounced the first weekend. Then we'll be back where we were at the end of 2022 and Ohio State Basketball will remain irrelevant and our title drought will grow and nothing will change.

It should be interesting. OSU will likely have around 10 freshmen and sophomores on the team next year.

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Topic: Basketball Coaching Carousel

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