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Topic: B1GCG Races
(Read 11645 times)

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #98 on:** November 12, 2023, 01:14:09 AM »

East is really simple now. Winner of THE GAME will go to Indy (assuming Michigan is permitted to participate). Said winner will also win the East outright unless:

They lose this week (vsMN/atUMD), and
The other one wins this week.

The other five teams are eliminated from even a share

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #99 on:** November 12, 2023, 01:19:04 AM »

The West is simple unless Iowa loses out.

If Iowa wins either of their last two games (vsIL, atUNL), they win the West outright.

It is only complicated if Iowa loses out so all of the following assumes that and that the team in question wins out (because otherwise they wouldn't tie IA).

Iowa: beat NU, UW; lost to MN, IL, UNL
Illinois: beat IA, NU, MN; lost to UW, UNL.
Nebraska: beat IA, UW, NU, IL; lost to MN
Wisconsin: beat IL, UNL, MN; lost to NU, IA.
Minnesota: beat UNL, IA, UW; lost to IL, NU.
Northwestern: beat IL, UW, MN; lost to UNL, IA.

LittlePig · « **Reply #100 on:** November 12, 2023, 07:50:59 AM »

Iowa - needs to win one of last 2 games against ILL or. @Neb. Or if Iowa loses twice, then Iowa needs Neb to lose to Wisc, ILL to lose to NW and Minn to lose once

Neb- Neb needs to win @Wisc and Neb needs to win against Iowa, and Neb needs Iowa to lose against ILL, and Neb needs Minn to lose once.

ILL - ILL needs to win @ Iowa and ILL needs to win against NW, and ILL needs Iowa to lose @Neb and ILL needs Neb to lose @Wisc

Wisc - To tie for first, Wisc needs to beat Neb and then Wisc needs to beat Minn, and Wisc needs Iowa to lose against ILL, and Wisc needs Iowa to lose @Neb. In addition if ILL beats NW, then there would be a 3-way tie between Iowa, Wisc and ILL and I don't know who wins that 3-way tie.

Minn - Minn needs to win @OSU and Minn needs to beat Wisc. Minn also needs Iowa to lose twice. Minn also needs ILL to lose to NW and Minn needs NW to lose to Purdue.

NW - to tie for first, NW needs to beat Purdue and NW needs to beat ILL. NW also needs Iowa to lose twice. In addition if Minn wins twice, there would be a 3-way tie between Iowa, NW, Minn and I don't know who would win that 3-way tie.

OK I am done (I think)

Cincydawg · « **Reply #101 on:** November 12, 2023, 08:16:09 AM »

So, basically Iowa v UM/OSU, and it won't be pretty.

LittlePig · « **Reply #102 on:** November 12, 2023, 09:03:34 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 12, 2023, 08:16:09 AM

So, basically Iowa v UM/OSU, and it won't be pretty.

It's too bad maybe the West could get John Paddock into the CCG. That could be exciting.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #103 on:** November 12, 2023, 04:45:31 PM »

My favorite potential B1G-W scenario:

Iowa loses to IL
Iowa loses to UNL
IL loses to NU
NU loses to PU
UNL loses to UW
UW loses to MN
MN loses to tOSU
PU beats IU

Final standings:

5-4 Iowa
4-5 IL
4-5 NU
4-5 UNL
4-5 UW
4-5 MN
4-5 PU

FearlessF · « **Reply #104 on:** November 12, 2023, 04:47:34 PM »

My favorite potential B1G-W scenario:
Iowa loses to IL
Iowa loses to UNL

_______________________

I'm good with this

LittlePig · « **Reply #105 on:** November 12, 2023, 11:00:43 PM »

Strangely enough in the Big Ten West, all 5 teams tied with 3-4 conference records still have a mathematical chance to go to the 2023 Big Ten CCG. I was not sure about Wisc or NW before but turns out they both have a chance.

If Wisc finishes in a 3-way tie for first with Iowa and ILL at 5-4, then Wisc would win the tie-breaker. Wisc would have a division record of 4-2 while ILL and Iowa would be 3-3

If NW finishes in a 3-way tie for first with Iowa and Minn at 5-4, then NW would win the tie-breaker NW would have a division record of 4-2 while Iowa and Minn would be 3-3 this is probably the most unlikely scenerio of all teams still alive because it requires NW to win twice, Minn to win twice including Minn beating OSU, and Iowa to lose twice and for Neb to lose to Wisc.

Temp430 · « **Reply #106 on:** November 13, 2023, 06:47:19 AM »

The Big Ten Championship game is something I would not miss. Wish they did away with it altogether and just played another conference game.

LittlePig · « **Reply #107 on:** November 13, 2023, 07:45:03 AM »

Quote from: Temp430 on November 13, 2023, 06:47:19 AM

The Big Ten Championship game is something I would not miss. Wish they did away with it altogether and just played another conference game.

If CFP expands to 16 or more teams, the debate will come if the CCG is still necessary because the number of extra games is getting out of hand.

Maybe the Big Ten can go to a flex schedule the last week of the regular season. Every team can play their rival game the week before Thanksgiving then have another week where you still have designated home teams but the opponent can be flexed. The 2 best teams can be flexed into the same game for the CCG. Who is the home team for the CCG could get complicated.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #108 on:** November 13, 2023, 10:03:19 AM »

It doesn't matter anymore since PSU lost to Michigan but ironically this weekend their B1G-W opponents took a more-or-less insurmountable lead over tOSU's and M's.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #109 on:** November 13, 2023, 10:30:02 AM »

@LittlePig , check my work here:

Notes:
There can ONLY be a tie for the B1G-W if Iowa loses out (vsIL, @UNL) and one or more of the 3-4 teams wins out. Then the B1G-W Champion would be 5-4.

The above assumes that Iowa loses out AND that the team in question wins out.

Many of the above are mutually exclusive. Ie, Northwestern and Illinois cannot both win out because they play each other. The above assumes both a Northwestern win over Illinois and an Illinois win over Northwestern because:

Northwestern can only win out by beating Illinois and
Illinois can only win out by beating Northwestern.

These are the two potential 4-way ties:

Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern
Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Illinois.

In #1 the H2H2H2H would be:

2-1 Minnesota (beat IA and UNL, lost to NU)
2-1 Nebraska (beat IA and NU, lost to MN)
1-2 Iowa (beat NU, lost to UNL and MN)
1-2 Northwestern (beat MN, lost to IA and UNL)

B1G rules state that if only two teams are left after any step, the winner of the game between those two goes to Indy. Thus, in this case, Minnesota goes because IA and NU are eliminated based on H2H2H2H and Minnesota beat Nebraska.

In #2 the H2H2H2H would be:

2-1 Illinois (beat IA and MN, lost to UNL)
2-1 Minnesota (beat IA and UNL, lost to IL)
2-1 Nebraska (beat IA and IL, lost to MN)
0-3 Iowa (lost to UNL, MN, and IL)

B1G rules state that if three or more teams are tied after any step, those three move to the next step (in this case divisional record). Thus, Nebraska goes because they have the best divisional record.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #110 on:** November 13, 2023, 11:14:27 AM »

Then there are the potential three-way ties. It seems like there are a lot but it isn't quite that bad because all these 3-4 teams that play each other can't both get to 5-4. So, I think the potential 3-way ties are:

Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota: Minnesota wins, 2-0 H2H2H.
Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern: Nebraska wins, 2-0 H2H2H.
Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois: Nebraska wins, 2-0 H2H2H.
Iowa, Wisconsin, Northwestern: Iowa wins, 2-0 H2H2H.
Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois: Wisconsin wins, 4-2 divisional record.
Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern: Northwestern wins, 4-2 divisional record.
Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois: Illinois wins, 2-0 H2H2H.

The two-way ties are simple. Iowa wins over UW or NU, loses to UNL, MN, or IL.

LittlePig · « **Reply #111 on:** November 13, 2023, 12:28:32 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 13, 2023, 11:14:27 AM

Then there are the potential three-way ties. It seems like there are a lot but it isn't quite that bad because all these 3-4 teams that play each other can't both get to 5-4. So, I think the potential 3-way ties are:

Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota: Minnesota wins, 2-0 H2H2H.
Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern: Nebraska wins, 2-0 H2H2H.
Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois: Nebraska wins, 2-0 H2H2H.
Iowa, Wisconsin, Northwestern: Iowa wins, 2-0 H2H2H.
Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois: Wisconsin wins, 4-2 divisional record.
Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern: Northwestern wins, 4-2 divisional record.
Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois: Illinois wins, 2-0 H2H2H.

The two-way ties are simple. Iowa wins over UW or NU, loses to UNL, MN, or IL.

Yes, very nice summary. It all checks out.

I keep getting tripped up in any tie-breaker involving Minnesota because I keep thinking they will lose to Ohio St and then I have to remind myself they must beat Ohio State in order for Minn to tie for first.

So yes, the simplest way to eliminate everybody is for Iowa to beat ILL on Sat. But the next best way to eliminate a couple teams is for Ohio St to beat Minn, which eliminates both Minn and NW.

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Topic: B1GCG Races

medinabuckeye1

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medinabuckeye1

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LittlePig

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Cincydawg

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LittlePig

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medinabuckeye1

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FearlessF

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LittlePig

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Temp430

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LittlePig

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medinabuckeye1

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medinabuckeye1

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medinabuckeye1

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LittlePig

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