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Topic: B1GCG Races
(Read 11644 times)

LittlePig · « **Reply #84 on:** November 05, 2023, 12:24:38 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 05, 2023, 11:36:10 AM

A great weekend for Penn State as their opponents went 2-1 (NU lost but IA and IL won). Meanwhile tOSU's and M's opponents each went 0-3.

everything is falling into place for PSU. Now they just have to beat Michigan and then Mich beat OSU.

The irony is that Minn and Purdue's conference records are probably worse than they should be, because they each had to play both OSU and Mich.

LittlePig · « **Reply #85 on:** November 05, 2023, 12:46:36 PM »

I could be wrong, but I think if PSU loses to Michigan, then PSU will be eliminated from any chance at playing in the CCG.

And If PSU loses to Mich and OSU beats MSU, then PSU would be officially eliminated from any chance at a first place tie in the East.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #86 on:** November 05, 2023, 01:14:39 PM »

Quote from: LittlePig on November 05, 2023, 12:46:36 PM

I could be wrong, but I think if PSU loses to Michigan, then PSU will be eliminated from any chance at playing in the CCG.

And If PSU loses to Mich and OSU beats MSU, then PSU would be officially eliminated from any chance at a first place tie in the East.

Penn State would be eliminated from CG contention with a loss to M even if MSU beats tOSU.

Ohio State and Michigan are both 6-0 and will play each other. The winner can finish no worse than 7-2 so:

3-3 Rutgers
2-4 Maryland
1-5 Indiana and MSU

are all mathematically eliminated from even a share because none of them can get to 7-2.

That just leaves 5-1 Penn State and if they lose to Michigan, the best they could do is 7-2. That would only get them a share if:

Penn State wins their last two games (vsRU, @MSU), and
Michigan loses their last two games (@UMD, vstOSU), and
Ohio State beats Michigan (see #2) but loses their other two games (vsMSU, vsMN).

That would give Penn State a share of the B1G-E in a three-way tie with tOSU and M but the first tiebreaker is H2H2Hwhuch would be:

2-0 tOSU
1-1 M
0-2 PSU

So if Penn State loses to Michigan they are eliminated from the CG and if tOSU also beats MSU, that would eliminate Penn State from even a possible share of the B1G-E.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #87 on:** November 05, 2023, 01:16:18 PM »

Also, if Ohio State and Michigan both win this weekend it sets up a situation where their games next weekend really don't matter much.

LittlePig · « **Reply #88 on:** November 05, 2023, 01:44:48 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 05, 2023, 01:16:18 PM

Also, if Ohio State and Michigan both win this weekend it sets up a situation where their games next weekend really don't matter much.

Yes, in the Big Ten race it will not matter. It could make a difference in the playoff rankings/seedings, but we can save that for another discussion.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #89 on:** November 05, 2023, 02:11:04 PM »

So @LittlePig and I covered the East above.

The West is, to put it mildly, MICH more complicated.

Even last place Purdue (1-5) might have some theoretical mathematical chance because nobody has five wins yet so each one could end up 4-5 or worse and Purdue would end up 4-5 if they win out.

4-2 Iowa, vsRU, vsIL, @UNL:
The Hawkeyes control their own destiny. If they win our, they'll go to Indy. A loss to either RU or IL would only keep them out if Minnesota managed to win out.

3-3 Minnesota, @PU, @tOSU, vs UW:
If they win out, all they need is an Iowa loss because they already own the H2H tiebreaker over UNL and IA and winning out would take out Wisconsin. The major problem is that winning out requires winning in Columbus. The last time the Gophers won in Columbus Bill Clinton was President and the time before that it was Harry Truman.

3-3 Wisconsin, vs NU, vs UNL, @MN:
The loss to Iowa is crushing them. They can't get to Indy unless Iowa loses twice.

3-3 Nebraska, vsUMD, @UW, vsIA:
The Cornhuskers more-or-less control their own destiny because winning out would take out the Badgers and put them into no worse than a tie with the Hawkeyes. At that point all they'd need would be a Minnesota loss and the Gophers go to Columbus next weekend.

The rest:

2-4 Illinois and Northwestern
1-5 Purdue

These teams may be mathematically alive but I think they are practically out.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #90 on:** November 06, 2023, 09:19:34 AM »

Interesting tiebreaker in the B1G-W:

Practically, Nebraska controls their own destiny and they almost control their own destiny mathematically.

Follow me on this:

If Nebraska wins out they will finish 6-3 in the B1G. Winning out would give the Badgers their fourth loss so that takes them out. It would also give Iowa their third loss so Nebraska would be at least tied with Iowa and Nebraska would own the H2H tiebreaker over Iowa.

Minnesota *could* also join that tie by winning out but that would involve winning in Columbus so it is probably unlikely.

But it goes a step further. Even if Minnesota did win in Columbus and win out, Nebraska would STILL go to Indy so long as Iowa wins their other two games (vsRU, vsIL).

Reason:
In a three way tie between Iowa, Nebraska, and Minnesota at 6-3 the tiebreakers are:

H2H2H: This does not help as each of the three would be 1-1 against the other two.
Divisional Record: Nebraska would be 5-1 and win while Iowa and Minnesota would each be 4-2.

Thus, if Nebraska wins out they will go to Indy unless:

Minnesota also wins out, and
Iowa loses at home to either Rutgers or Illinois, or both.

If Nebraska won out and both of those things happened it would create a 2-way tie atop the B1G-W between Nebraska and Minnesota and the Gophers would win that tie.

Paths to Indy for the B1G-W contenders:
Iowa 4-2:
If they win out they go so they control their own destiny. If they lose to either RU or IL they would still control their own destiny so long as Minnesota loses a game.

Nebraska 3-3:
The Cornhuskers more-or-less control their own destiny (see above) because if they win out they would win a 2-way tie with Iowa or a 3-way tie with Iowa and Minnesota.

Minnesota 3-3:
The Gophers just need an Iowa loss because winning out would take out Wisconsin and Minnesota already owns H2H wins over Iowa and Nebraska.

Wisconsin 3-3:
The Badgers need help. Their loss to Iowa means that they either need two Iowa losses or some 3-way tie that they would win. The problem is that there aren't any potential 3-way ties at 6-3 for the Badgers because winning out would give Nebraska and Minnesota each a fourth loss. Thus, even if UW wins out they'll still need two Iowa losses.

LittlePig · « **Reply #91 on:** November 06, 2023, 09:31:08 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 06, 2023, 09:19:34 AM

Interesting tiebreaker in the B1G-W:

Practically, Nebraska controls their own destiny and they almost control their own destiny mathematically.

Follow me on this:

If Nebraska wins out they will finish 6-3 in the B1G. Winning out would give the Badgers their fourth loss so that takes them out. It would also give Iowa their third loss so Nebraska would be at least tied with Iowa and Nebraska would own the H2H tiebreaker over Iowa.

Minnesota *could* also join that tie by winning out but that would involve winning in Columbus so it is probably unlikely.

But it goes a step further. Even if Minnesota did win in Columbus and win out, Nebraska would STILL go to Indy so long as Iowa wins their other two games (vsRU, vsIL).

Reason:
In a three way tie between Iowa, Nebraska, and Minnesota at 6-3 the tiebreakers are:

H2H2H: This does not help as each of the three would be 1-1 against the other two.
Divisional Record: Nebraska would be 6-1 and win while Iowa and Minnesota would each be 5-2.

Thus, if Nebraska wins out they will go to Indy unless:
Minnesota also wins out, and
Iowa loses at home to either Rutgers or Illinois, or both.
If Nebraska won out and both of those things happened it would create a 2-way tie atop the B1G-W between Nebraska and Minnesota and the Gophers would win that tie.

Paths to Indy for the B1G-W contenders:
Iowa 4-2:
If they win out they go so they control their own destiny. If they lose to either RU or IL they would still control their own destiny so long as Minnesota loses a game.

Nebraska 3-3:
The Cornhuskers more-or-less control their own destiny (see above) because if they win out they would win a 2-way tie with Iowa or a 3-way tie with Iowa and Minnesota.

Minnesota 3-3:
The Gophers just need an Iowa loss because winning out would take out Wisconsin and Minnesota already owns H2H wins over Iowa and Nebraska.

Wisconsin 3-3:
The Badgers need help. Their loss to Iowa means that they either need two Iowa losses or some 3-way tie that they would win. The problem is that there aren't any potential 3-way ties at 6-3 for the Badgers because winning out would give Nebraska and Minnesota each a fourth loss. Thus, even if UW wins out they'll still need two Iowa losses.

I could be wrong but something seems slightly off in your 3-way tie-breaker with Minn, Iowa, Neb.

There are only 6 games against your division. So the division records would be Neb 5-1, Minn 4-2, Iowa 4-2. (I think).

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #92 on:** November 06, 2023, 09:36:18 AM »

Quote from: LittlePig on November 06, 2023, 09:31:08 AM

I could be wrong but something seems slightly off in your 3-way tie-breaker with Minn, Iowa, Neb.

There are only 6 games against your division. So the division records would be Neb 5-1, Minn 4-2, Iowa 4-2. (I think).

You are right. I just figured out the losses and calculated the wins but I should have subtracted from six not seven.

Doesn't change the result.

FearlessF · « **Reply #93 on:** November 06, 2023, 09:47:05 AM »

3-way tie-breaker with Minn, Iowa, Neb.

I don't think any of the 3 will win out

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #94 on:** November 06, 2023, 09:49:47 AM »

Quote from: FearlessF on November 06, 2023, 09:47:05 AM

3-way tie-breaker with Minn, Iowa, Neb.

I don't think any of the 3 will win out

That favors Iowa because they, more than the others, can afford a loss.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #95 on:** November 08, 2023, 05:34:48 PM »

Vis-a-vis the potential 3-way tiebreaker in the B1G-E, the Northwestern at Wisconsin game this weekend (Badgers favored by 10) is pretty big.

Purdue and Minnesota are playing each other. Both of them also played both tOSU and M so the net result for both tOSU's and M's opponents will be 1-1.

If UW beats NU then tOSU's opponents will go 2-1 and PSU's can go no better than 2-1 so tOSU's will exit this weekend either one game behind PSU's, tied with PSU's, or one game ahead of PSU's. OTOH, if NU beats UW then tOSU's opponents will go 1-2 and PSU's can do no worse than 1-2 so tOSU's will exit this weekend at least one game behind PSU's.

Michigan is rooting for Nebraska against Maryland if they lose in Happy Valley.

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #96 on:** November 08, 2023, 11:35:27 PM »

It's kind of funny to contemplate Nebraska winning out, after they just lost to Michigan State.

Hawkinole · « **Reply #97 on:** November 09, 2023, 01:11:56 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 06, 2023, 09:49:47 AM

That favors Iowa because they, more than the others, can afford a loss.

Iowa isn't favored at anything. Iowa can give up no more than 11 points to an opponent, or they are in serious jeopardy of losing. We should start a thread on close shaves.
Iowa, Norelco, Gillette, Wilkinson Sword (no), Bic, ... I am getting away from football. I think we need an off-season thread related to shaving.

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Topic: B1GCG Races

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