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Topic: B1GCG Races

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #56 on: October 30, 2023, 12:32:43 PM »
Vis-a-vis the aforementioned potential 3-way tiebreaker:

I am no longer confident that tOSU will win if it comes down to this. Earlier this year I was, but a number of things have changed including:

  • Wisconsin has under-achieved relative to my expectations and has injury issues.
  • Northwestern looked to be roadkill earlier this season but they are showing signs of life.

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #57 on: October 30, 2023, 12:38:59 PM »
Medina's Handy-Dandy B1G-W contender table:


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FearlessF

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #58 on: October 30, 2023, 01:05:13 PM »
since there's a better than average chance that Minnesooota loses to Ohio St., Iowa and Nebraska control their own destiny

with the Hawks and Huskers lack of offense, I'm not sure either of them can win out.
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LittlePig

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #59 on: October 30, 2023, 01:20:37 PM »
It's weird to think about how each team in the West could have a commanding lead right now. 

Nebraska gave up a 4th down TD to Minn in the last 2 minutes and then let Minn kick the game winning FG with no time left.  If Neb hangs on against Minn,  they would be 4-1 right now.

Minn collapses and blows big lead in overtime loss to NW.  If Minn hangs on against NW,  they would be 4-1 and have victories over Iowa and Neb

If Iowa does not commit an invalid fair catch on a game-winning punt return for a TD against Minn,  Iowa would be 4-1 with wins against Wisc and Minn.

But in the end I guess it's a sign nobody in the West is good enough to win their games by 3TD's and things have a way of balancing out in close games.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #60 on: October 30, 2023, 03:04:23 PM »
This potential 3-way tiebreaker in the B1G-E fascinates me because it is so goofy.  An interesting twist is that it IF it becomes potentially relevant, it *COULD* be decided BEFORE the games of the Saturday of Thanksgiving weekend, here is why:


Penn State's opponents are Iowa, Illinois, and Northwestern.  Iowa plays Nebraska the Friday of Thanksgiving weekend and the other two play each other on Saturday.  The result of the IL/NU game will be irrelevant because no matter what happens it is one win and one loss for PSU's opponents.  Thus, after the Friday games, PSU's opponents final record will be locked in.  

Ohio State' opponents are Purdue, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.  Purdue hosts Indiana on the Saturday of Thanksgiving weekend and the other two play each other.  The result of the MN/UW game will be irrelevant because no matter what happens it is one win and one loss for tOSU's opponents.  Thus, after the Friday games, tOSU's opponents final record will be within +/-1 game.  

Michigan's opponents are Nebraska, Purdue, and Minnesota.  Nebraska hosts Iowa on the Friday of Thanksgiving weekend and.  That Saturday Purdue hosts Indiana and Minnesota hosts Wisconsin.  Thus, Michigan's opponents final record will be within +/-2 games.  


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LittlePig

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #61 on: October 30, 2023, 04:02:32 PM »
Yes, and the most important part as we all know,  PSU still has to beat Michigan on Nov 11 to keep the chances of a 3-way tie alive. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #62 on: November 01, 2023, 11:41:04 AM »
Quote from: LittlePig on October 30, 2023, 04:02:32 PM
Yes, and the most important part as we all know,  PSU still has to beat Michigan on Nov 11 to keep the chances of a 3-way tie alive.
True but I do want to clarify that the reason we have talked about this crazy hypothetical three-way tie so much is that there really isn't much else to talk about.  In the West there are five teams within a game of the lead so there are LOTS of scenarios to consider.  In the East we've assumed (correctly) that there were no more than three contenders so the only really relevant games are the three among those three teams (tOSU>PSU, M@PSU, tOSU@M).  
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LittlePig

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #63 on: November 01, 2023, 01:14:14 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 01, 2023, 11:41:04 AM
True but I do want to clarify that the reason we have talked about this crazy hypothetical three-way tie so much is that there really isn't much else to talk about.  In the West there are five teams within a game of the lead so there are LOTS of scenarios to consider.  In the East we've assumed (correctly) that there were no more than three contenders so the only really relevant games are the three among those three teams (tOSU>PSU, M@PSU, tOSU@M). 
Yes,  all understood.  The other crazy thing to think about is how this will all be different in 2024 with no divisions and 4 extra teams.  Sure we won't have the fun of guessing which mediocre team will win the West anymore but instead we are going to have all these possible 3-way ties at 9-0 to sort out.  It will be interesting how the Big Ten comes up with its tiebreakers without divisions. 
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FearlessF

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #64 on: November 01, 2023, 02:14:32 PM »
3-way ties at 9-0, at 8-1, and 7-2

bunch of 1 loss teams and 2 loss teams trying to get in the 12-team playoff and new year's day bowls

back to the polls for placement?
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #65 on: November 01, 2023, 02:47:22 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on November 01, 2023, 02:14:32 PM
3-way ties at 9-0, at 8-1, and 7-2

bunch of 1 loss teams and 2 loss teams trying to get in the 12-team playoff and new year's day bowls

back to the polls for placement?
It will be interesting.  You could have a clear #1 at 8-1 then say three 7-2 teams vying for the second CG spot.  It might be that some want it and some don't.  

Example, lets say that on a schedule like this year, tOSU lost to Notre Dame and went 7-2/9-3.  They would desperately want that CG because 7-2/9-3 is probably NOT going to get into the CFP but 7-2/10-3 and B1G Champions is an auto-bid.  OTOH, if tOSU had a win over a solid Notre Dame team and was sitting at 7-2/10-2 they'd possibly be better off NOT going to the CG because losing the CG to finish 7-2/10-3 might NOT be good enough while 7-2/10-2 probably would.  
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FearlessF

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #66 on: November 01, 2023, 03:20:51 PM »
yup, there will be some bull shit politics

always best to be tOSU or MU in those cases
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #67 on: November 02, 2023, 09:44:39 AM »
Vis-a-vis the potential 3-way B1G-E tiebreaker:

Ohio State's opponents are 7-8 and four of their 12 remaining games are against each other (MN/PU, UW/MN).  They will necessarily go 2-2 in those games so they are effectively 9-10 with eight to go.  

Michigan's opponents are 7-8 and two of their 12 remaining games are against each other (MN/PU).  Yhey will necessarily go 1-1  in those games so they are effectively 8-9 with 10 to go.  

Penn State's opponents are 6-9 and six of their 12 remaining games are against each other (IA/NU, IA/IL, IL/NU).  They will necessarily go 3-3 in those games so they are effectively 9-12 with six to go.  

Biggest remaining games:

  • Illinois at Minnesota this weekend:  Illinois is a PSU opponent while MN is an opponent of both tOSU and M so an IL win REALLY helps PSU while a MN win REALLY helps tOSU/M.  
  • Northwestern at Wisconsin on Veteran's Day:  Northwestern is a PSU opponent while UW is a tOSU opponent.  
  • Purdue at Northwestern on 11/18:  Purdue is a tOSU/M opponent while NU is a PSU opponent.  
  • Nebraska at Wisconsin on 11/18:  Nebraska is a M opponent while UW is a tOSU opponent.  This game will more-than-likely be the difference between tOSU's opponents and M's opponents.  
  • Iowa at Nebraska on 11/24:  Iowa is a PSU opponent while UNL is a M opponent.  
  • Wisconsin at Minnesota, the Ax game on 11/25:  Both are tOSU opponents but only MN is a M opponent so tOSU might need a UW win here.  

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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #68 on: November 04, 2023, 11:22:50 PM »
so now Iowa sits alone atop the B1G West
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LittlePig

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #69 on: November 05, 2023, 06:47:14 AM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on November 04, 2023, 11:22:50 PM
so now Iowa sits alone atop the B1G West.
Yes,  Iowa controls it's own destiny.  But Iowa just doesn't have a good enough offense to win out,  so the race in the West is not over.  The key is Iowa can lose again,  just don't lose to Neb.

Minn still owns tie-breakers over Iowa and Neb,  but assuming Minn loses to Ohio St,  Minn needs Iowa to lose twice and Neb to lose once, and Minn still needs to beat Wisc.  Does not look good for Minn.

Despite its performance, Nebraska still is close to controlling its own destiny, assuming Minn loses to Ohio St.  Neb still plays Wisc and Iowa.  So if Neb wins out (there I go again) ,  odds are good Neb will win the West.

Wisc still needs to play Minn and Neb.  But if Wisc wins out,  it still needs Iowa to lose twice.

Technically NW and ILL are probably still alive but I am not going to try to figure out how.
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