I mean until we go to 12, scheduling 3 cupcakes is the way to go for playoff teams. We still treat 12-0 with 3 cupcake wins > 11-1 with a good OOC loss.
UM is scheduling like a team that wants to go to the playoff, knowing that 0 losses > 1 loss > 2 losses, even if the teams have identical conference records.
2016 Washington made the CFP at 11-1 over 10-2 Penn State, Michigan, and Oklahoma. Their OOC was Rutgers, Idaho, FCS, all at home. Penn State had an OOC road loss at Pitt, Michigan beat a Colorado team that wound up making the P12 Championship; Oklahoma lost to #14 Houston and #3 Ohio State. So if Penn State and Oklahoma had scheduled like Washington, they would be 11-1 and 12-0 respectively. And Michigan got no credit for beating Colorado, because in September nobody thought they'd be good, but by the time Washington beat them in the P12 Championship, it was a top 10 win.
Well it changes next year but for now you are right. Basically the old "Never Schedule a Loss" advice.
I've wanted to believe that Ohio State's generally relatively strong SoS has been or would be a factor in their favor but you are right. As
@OrangeAfroMan often complains, the CFP rankings are just a sequential list of:
- Undefeated P5
- One-loss P5
- Two-loss P5
Then the rare non P5 undefeateds and one-loss teams get sprinkled in.
In 2016 Ohio State's OOC win over B12 Champions Oklahoma helped get them in but it isn't clear that they wouldn't have been in if they had beaten OkSU, Tulsa, or for that matter some FCS instead of The Sooners. Even if tOSU's 2016 win over OU got the Buckeyes in, it is still no better than a wash because tOSU's 2017 loss to OU kept them out.
SoS is completely irrelevant if you are an undefeated or 1-loss B1G Champion. Since no two-loss team has made the CFP, SoS only plausibly matters for an 11-1 team that didn't make the CG or a 12-1 team that lost the CG.
In those extremely rare cases Ohio State would be a little better positioned than Michigan or Penn State due to tOSU's game against Notre Dame. To get that extremely unlikely advantage, Ohio State is taking the MUCH more likely risk that the stronger schedule will simply result in more losses and knock tOSU out of the discussion.