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Topic: B1G Predictions

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Cincydawg

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Re: B1G Predictions
« Reply #70 on: July 28, 2019, 12:20:20 PM »
We're all seeing the early (irrelevant) rankings coming out already, and OSU is usually 3-4-5 and Michigan seems to be top ten but more 5-6-7-8, right?

If we imagine those are roughly correct, it comes down to a few point HFA and then how the ball bounces.

It should be an interesting season for the B1G, perhaps the most competitive conference of the P5s (Pac could be as well).

Anonymous Coward

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Re: B1G Predictions
« Reply #71 on: July 28, 2019, 12:33:51 PM »
10-2 is great at Iowa or Michigan State.
At Michigan after Rodriguez and Hoke, it almost registers as a miracle. The point though is that for Michigan there are distinct kids of expectations for the team when it's in "climbing" mode and when it's in "maintenance" mode. And so far the administration and (vast?) majority of fans are judging it in climbing mode.

Maintenance mode probably requires East contention in something like 7/8 years and a conference championship at least 1/3 of the time.

This requires us to ask about realistic timelines for finishing the climb *into* maintenance mode. I think that's mostly a personal question, and anyone can frame it as they like. I see it as a long process (in the parlance of James Franklin again: that becoming elite is harder than becoming great) and that, if the goal is 11-1, climbing can be happening, but seem hidden, within a long string of 10-2's. My dream is to hold at 10 wins and wait. That makes breaking through to 11 statistically inevitable ... given the right patience.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2019, 12:45:30 PM by Anonymous Coward »

MrNubbz

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Re: B1G Predictions
« Reply #72 on: July 28, 2019, 12:46:31 PM »
So I think he could go 10-2 with losses to OSU and ND and his seat wouldn't get warm at all. 10-20% of the fanbase would be pretty hot, but they aren't relevant to his seat.
Not saying he gets the pink slip simply the noose gets tighter.All 3 at home probably favored also.I think the faithful start raisng red flags if M doesn't grab two wins.Might add I'm not certain about Fields under center for tOSU but behind him the scenerio is dreadful
"Let us endeavor so to live - that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain

Cincydawg

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Re: B1G Predictions
« Reply #73 on: July 28, 2019, 12:55:09 PM »
10-2 beating OSU obviously is not the same at all as 10-2 losing to OSU.  That is a serious monkey I think.

(My own monkey is to beat Alabama, so monkeys are all over the place of course.)

My guess is 10-2 with a L in THE Game will start to lower level grumblings.  11-1 might as well with that loss if OSU is 11-1 or better.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: B1G Predictions
« Reply #74 on: July 28, 2019, 01:04:50 PM »
Nubbz: If by "noose" you mean that the smallish group of currently unhappy people will become angrier and maybe grow to include more fans, then I agree. Of course that's right. It's true of every coach any time a negative thing happens. And the opposite is true when positive things happen.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: B1G Predictions
« Reply #75 on: July 28, 2019, 01:06:13 PM »
10-2 beating OSU obviously is not the same at all as 10-2 losing to OSU.  That is a serious monkey I think.

(My own monkey is to beat Alabama, so monkeys are all over the place of course.)

My guess is 10-2 with a L in THE Game will start to lower level grumblings.  11-1 might as well with that loss if OSU is 11-1 or better.
Because of fan chauvinism and the pre-Harbaugh decade, I think MSU losses are a much bigger bugaboo than OSU losses. OSU losses are more survivable and less grumbly than MSU losses.

Cincydawg

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Re: B1G Predictions
« Reply #76 on: July 28, 2019, 01:11:32 PM »
Interesting, I would not have thought that.


Anonymous Coward

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Re: B1G Predictions
« Reply #77 on: July 28, 2019, 01:57:07 PM »
Michigan fans routinely accepted that a rebuilding Michigan should realistically lose to a Tressel/Meyer OSU. It was the stronger program and essentially always favored. Most importantly, Michigan and OSU respect each other. By comparison, Michigan fans never tolerate MSU losses. There aren't any qualifiers either -- there're no times where Michigan fans look around and say"hey guys, it's understandable this time." There's chauvinism behind that. And the pre-Harbaugh years (Dantonio starting 7-2) raised the urgency.

Of course, the rivalry is little known outside the state. So this is not the kind of thing you should be surprised you didn't know, Cincy.

Cincydawg

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Re: B1G Predictions
« Reply #78 on: July 28, 2019, 02:29:21 PM »
I can imagine somehow UGA losing to Tech a few times, let's say 7 out of 9, and it becoming an urgent need.  Well, I can't imagine that really, but I can put it out as some weird hypothetical.  UGA did lose two home games in a row to Tech, which was quite annoying.

Beating Florida/Auburn/Tenn is still more important, but doing that and losing to Tech?  Yeah, really not good.

So, I can see your point, I had just not thought about it that way.

MrNubbz

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Re: B1G Predictions
« Reply #79 on: July 28, 2019, 02:30:17 PM »
Sparty vs Weasels is in my top 5 every year,some seasons number 1
"Let us endeavor so to live - that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain

Anonymous Coward

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Re: B1G Predictions
« Reply #80 on: July 28, 2019, 03:42:36 PM »
Beating Florida/Auburn/Tenn is still more important, but doing that and losing to Tech?  Yeah, really not good.
That's a good comparison. OSU and ND are far more satisfying to win but MSU is, by orders of magnitude, the worst to lose.

Cincydawg

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Re: B1G Predictions
« Reply #81 on: July 28, 2019, 04:06:03 PM »
It's interesting how wins and losses are not syllogistic, if that's the right word.

Some wins are better than others, but the losses that are worse than others are not symmetric with that.


medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Predictions
« Reply #82 on: July 29, 2019, 11:54:28 AM »
Absent some unforeseeable 5-7 type season, he's fine.  I think he needs at the minimum a CCG appearance (and at that point a win with the East being undefeated there) with OSU undergoing a coaching transition, PSU replacing the QB who saved Franklin's job, and MSU seemingly content to squander an elite defense by just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic offensively, to ward off a very, very uncomfortable offseason next year.
That is a sadly accurate way to put it.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Predictions
« Reply #83 on: July 29, 2019, 11:56:21 AM »
To get more specific does anyone want to predict anything besides rinse-n-repeat for Michigan? Flexing their muscles against less talented rosters but playing mostly flat and lost against teams of equivalent talent and athleticism? Harbaugh season 5 no different than Harbaugh seasons 1 - 4?
AC already covered this somewhat, but at least to the reasonable fans, losses to teams that end up finishing top-5 or so (ie, tOSU most years lately, M's bowl opponents, etc) are at least understandable.  No fan is ever going to be happy about a loss so I'm not saying that, just that losing to a REALLY good opponent is understandable.  

 

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