Results posted, votes through The Loon, 16 voters.
There was very little change this week:
- Illinois was up 1.5 spots from 11th into a tie with Nebraska for 9th/10th.
- Nebraska was down 0.5 spots into the aforementioned tie.
- Purdue was down one spot to 11th.
The gap between #7 MSU and #8 Indiana has gotten VERY small. Two weeks ago when Indiana moved up into 8th place and Michigan State moved down into 7th place, the gap between them was humongous, 2.28. Now it is less than 0.5.
At this point in the season most teams' rankings are relatively locked in. Ie, Ohio State can't fall THAT far because no matter what happens from here out they'll still have that big win over Wisconsin propping them up. Similarly, Rutgers can't rise THAT far because no matter what happens from here out they'll still have that blowout loss to Maryland holding them back. The biggest exception to that is Minnesota. They are 5-0 but their wins are over:
- The two teams tied for 9th/10th, Nebraska and Illinois
- #11 Purdue
- #13 Maryland
- #14 Rutgers
They are currently fifth but their ceiling is unlimited. If they beat Penn State in their next game they will almost have to move to #2. Their floor, however, is pretty low. If they start losing they could pretty easily fall to #8.
That PSU/MN game probably has more B1G Power Ranking impact on one team than any game I can remember. Minnesota probably moves to #2 with a win and with a loss they drop to at least sixth and possibly as low as eighth.
COTY:
I refer to my "change so far this year" graph as the COTY prediction table because that award generally goes to the coach of the team that most exceeded expectations. That also explains why it hasn't been won by an Ohio State coach in 40 years. Ohio State, right now, is as high as they could possibly be. They are a unanimous #1 but on the COTY table they are a pedestrian sixth place only 0.65 ahead of where they started. The expectations in Columbus are generally so high that the Ohio State coach is effectively ineligible for this award. Who will win COTY?
At this point I think it is PJ Fleck's to lose. I cannot imagine a scenario in which Minnesota goes to Indianapolis and Fleck does not get COTY.
If Minnesota stumbles then I think COTY is between Tom Allen (Indiana) and Lovie Smith (Illinois). The only other potential winner, IMHO, is James Franklin (PSU).