CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on October 25, 2019, 05:29:29 PM
-
Link to last week's rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-rankings-week-8-11802/).
Votes through The Loon, 16 voters:
(https://i.imgur.com/Z9kPsiX.png)
Drop the high and low:
(https://i.imgur.com/ORTvgUa.png)
Graph of results so far this year:
(https://i.imgur.com/JcLE6I9.jpg)
Vote distribution:
(https://i.imgur.com/bGefbNt.jpg)
Graph of change so far this year, aka COTY prediction graph:
(https://i.imgur.com/Y3zD0BR.jpg)
Schedule/performance table:
(https://i.imgur.com/6JgsIWM.png)
-
1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan
5. Minnesota
6. Iowa
7. Michigan State
8. Indiana
9. Nebraska
10. Illinois
11. Purdue
12. Northwestern
13. Maryland
14. Rutgers
The only change from a week ago is Illinois and Purdue switching places.
The Big Ten is an incredibly good conference. The Top 6 are pretty much deserving of their national rankings, although arguably some could be higher. In fact, I would put #6 above some ranked above them such as Cincinnati, SMU, and Texas who are ranked ahead of them.
I would rank Ohio State #1 ahead of LSU, Alabama, and everyone else. I am not so sure where Penn State should be ranked, but they are the best team the Hawkeyes played, and Penn State won by just 5. I would probably put Penn State #5 in a national poll, but we will learn soon enough if they are #1 or #5.
-
Well, well, well. Maybe it was the Mich-Wisc game that was a fluke and IL-Wisc game was not a fluke?
1. OSU
A clear #1. OSU is in a tier by itself.
2. PSU
I have seen enough to move PSU up to #2, but PSU does not look dramatically better than #3-6. PSU-Minn should be a good game.
3. Wisc
Still has that big win over Mich, despite looking very average the last 2 weeks.
4. Mich
Offense seems to have been improving the last couple of weeks
5. Iowa
Offense is just not very good but defense keeps them in every game.
6. Minn
Has not played a good team yet. Beat PSU and I will get on board the boat.
7. MSU
Not showing up against the good teams. Best they can say is they beat Indy, which has turned out to be a good team.
8. Indy
It's not easy to go to Lincoln and get a win. Indy will soon be bowling.
9. Neb
10. ILL
3 solid efforts in a row. Could ILL actually be turning into a good team?
11. Pur
12. NW
13. MD
14. Rut
-
1) Ohio State (1) - A league of their own
2) Wisconsin (2) - For now
3) Penn State (3)
4) Michigan (4)
5) Minnesota (6) - Still don't believe, but I suppose they've earned this
6) Iowa (7) - This offense will prevent them from beating anyone with a pulse
7) Michigan State (5) - Finally done giving them the benefit of the doubt
8) Indiana (8)
9) Illinois (12) - Turned a corner?
10) Purdue (9)
11) Nebraska (10)
12) Maryland (11)
13) Northwestern (13) - Lifeless
14) Rutgers (14)
-
1. OSU: A strong win where OSU lined up and ran the ball, repeatedly, until Wisconsin couldn't stop it. Conversely, the defense stoned Wisconsin's run. Any team that can run the ball and play defense is strong, and OSU has a dynamic passing game. Chris Olave is great.
2. PSU: Strong effort against Sparty to kill off those demons. This team isn't quite as seamless as OSU, but they are like a big punching boxer who goes long periods of time looking kind of crappy but then unload at the end of each round.
3. Wisconsin: Their destruction of Michigan feels like ten years ago. They are now two games back in the division race after looking like they would walk to the crown.
4. Michigan: Very strong performance against Notre Dame. I thought the defense was as expected, especially given the weather, but add that to a suddenly functional offense and this is a good team. Maybe not so sudden - they moved the ball well against PSU, and Illinois doesn't look as bad defensively as we thought. If they keep improving the Game is gonna get real interesting.
5. Minnesota: Quietly chugging along, annihilating Maryland. The team that was eking out victories is gone, replaced by a rushing machine. Make no mistake, this is a good team that can beat Penn State in two weeks. I jumped Michigan passed them because Michigan looked good against a good team, but the way Minny has been playing they could jump to#2 once we see how they do against a good team.
6. Iowa: Also quietly plugging along, in perfect Iowa fashion.
7. Indiana: Bowl eligible in October. How about that?
8. MSU: Hard to have a more disappointing three game stretch
9. Illinois: It's not often a team passes for 26 yards and wins. Go Lovie.
10. Nebraska: Actually very competitive with Indiana. The offense, when it goes, can really go.
11. Purdue: Not their year.
12. Northwestern: This is a team that is allergic to the end zone.
13. Maryland: Pounded to a pulp.
14.Rutgers: VICTORY
-
1) Ohio State
2) Penn State
3) Michigan
4) Wisconsin
5) Iowa
6) Minnesota
7) Indiana
8) Michigan State
9) Nebraska
10) Illinois
11) Purdue
12) Northwestern
13) Maryland
14) Rutgers
Call it blasphemy, but I don’t think Wisconsin would beat Michigan on a neutral field if they played next week.
-
1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan
5. Iowa
6. Minnesota
7. Indiana
8. Michigan State
9. Illinois
10. Nebraska
11. Purdue
12. Northwestern
13. Maryland
14.
-
Call it blasphemy, but I don’t think Wisconsin would beat Michigan on a neutral field if they played next week.
I thought about this too, and after a bit of pondering I ended up thinking they would.
Michigan had some trouble in Champaign too, if you recall, but they did win. UW just played an NFL team, and Michigan just played an extremely overrated ACC team.
-
True, but the Badgers are quickly losing their mojo. They can get it back by beating Iowa in 2 weeks though.
-
1 Buckeyes - appear to be on a mission
2 Nittany Lions - reloading, not rebuilding. Really solid program.
3 Badgers - because ranking them behind a team that they thumped is recency bias of the highest order.
4 Wolverines - Great win, although weather was probably a major factor.
5 Hawkeyes - keeping them ahead of the Gophers for now. Wisconsin looms large.
6 Golden Gophers - schedule is about to get real. If they beat Penn St then they might run the table. If they get boat raced then they might unravel down the stretch.
7 Spartans - three straight blowout losses since beating Indiana by two scores, but they were against Ohio St, Wisconsin and Penn St.
8 Hoosiers - three straight wins since losing to Michigan St by two scores, but they were against Rutgers, Maryland and Nebraska.
9 Cornhuskers - If they were located in Illinois then they would be the undisputed state champions as all three of their FBS wins were against Illinois, Northwestern and N Illinois.
10 Fighting Illini - Could they win three of their last four against Rutgers, Michigan State, Iowa and Northwestern?
11 Boilermakers - as bad as it has been, I don't think you can drop them any lower than this. Unless of course they lose the Northwestern game.
12 Terrapins - They lost to Purdue which gives them a hard ceiling. Yet they have a much more impressive resume than Northwestern, and blew out Rutgers. So they are pretty firmly entrenched in this spot, imo.
13 Scarlet Knights - Amazingly they don't have any common opponents with Northwestern yet, so you have to go entirely on resume at this point. Rutgers has two G5 wins to Northwestern's one, including one over a team with a winning record. Starting next week they will begin to collect common opponents for a more objective comparison.
14 Wildcats - Pretty good gig for Fitz. One of the highest paid coaches in CFB, and entirely impervious to the hot seat.
-
1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan
5. Minnesota
6. Iowa
7. Michigan State
8. Indiana
9. Nebraska
10. Illinois
11. Purdue
12. Northwestern
13. Maryland
14. Rutgers
-
1. OSU
2. PSU
--
3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan
5. Iowa
6. Minnesota
7. MSU
8. Indiana
9. Nebraska
10. Maryland
11. Illinois
--
12. Purdue
13. Northwestern
14. Rutger
-
1. Ohio State - Another dominant win
2. Penn State - The Minnesota game could have Rose Bowl implications....
3. Michigan - Finally playing to their potential....
4. Wisconsin - I thought they'd be more competitive.
5. Minnesota - I'll be interested to see how they do against Penn State....
6. Iowa - Another ugly win.
7. Michigan State - They just don't have an offense, and their defense isn't as good as expected.
8. Indiana - Props for becoming bowl eligible.
9. Nebraska - I don't know what to make of this team.
10. Illinois - They might actually make a bowl game.
11. Purdue - Not a good look to get dominated at home by Illinois.
12. Maryland - Blown out again, and that Syracuse win isn't holding up well any more.
13. Northwestern - Their games are never fun to watch, but this year's team takes it to a new level.
14. Rutgers - Mildly surprised that they won, but they're still terrible.
-
1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Minnesota
4. Wisconsin
5. Michigan
6. Iowa
7. Indiana
8. Michigan State
9. Nebraska
10. Illinois
11. Northwestern
12. Purdue
13. Maryland
14. Rutgers
-
1. Ohio State - This team is looking like one of college football's all time greatest teams.
2. Penn State - Tough games against an undefeated Minnesota and a likely ranked 7WIndiana coming up. Minnesota could take over #2 if they beat them.
3. Minnesota - I don't know if I'm a believer in them yet, but they have looked really good, and they keep getting better.
4. Wisconsin - I'm not penalizing them for losing to OSU. That was the toughest anyone has played that team all year. I moved PSU up because they beat MSU, and I moved Minnesota up, too. In two weeks this team will almost certainly move up.
5. Michigan - The way they are playing now, could be ranked #2.
6. Iowa - They are winning the games they should, this is a solid team.
7. Michigan State - 3 losses to top 10 teams in a row. Illinois is looking tough, and Michigan is after that. No break for Dantonio's squad.
8. Indiana - If they beat Northwestern they will be 7-2. Then they have a bye before playing Penn State. I think they will be ranked for that game.
9. Illinois - I know that Nebraska beat them head to head, but right now I'd pick Illinois to win.
10. Nebraska - Disappointing year.
11. Purdue - Would probably be #9 on this list if they weren't decimated by injuries.
12. Maryland - still the worst coaching in the B1G.
13. Northwestern - Pretty shocked that Northwestern hasn't made the improvements they normally do.
14. Rutgers - Possibly better than Northwestern?
-
1. Ohio State - They appear to be pretty good at football.
2. Penn State - Convincing win in East Lansing.
---
3. Wisconsin - Played hard for 3 quarters until the game got away from them.
4. Michigan - Are the Wolverines getting things figured out on the Offense? If so, they will be a tough team to beat.
5. Minnesota - Moving them up after this performance. We'll find out in a couple of weeks how good they really are.
6. Iowa - Solid win against NW.
7. Michigan State - Not going to move them down yet. That 3 game stretch was brutal for them. Let's see how they shake out from here.
8. Indiana - Bowl eligible. Good win for them. Moving them into the middle tier.
---
9. Illinois - Gotta move them up after these past 2 weeks. Playing the best out of this bottom tier of teams.
10. Nebraska - I would move them down, but nobody below is worthy of moving up ahead of them.
11. Northwestern - Not sure what to make of this team.
12. Purdue - Too many injuries to key players.
13. Maryland - Still not good
14. Rutgers - They should really consider a new hobby. Something less physically demanding. Perhaps they could get a game of tag going with Maryland.
-
- OHIO STATE (1) - maybe I should stop doing their write ups for the opposite reason I have nothing left to say about Rutgers
- PENN STATE (2) - second straight week they roared out of the gate
- WISCONSIN (3) - until someone proves it's possible to not get blown out by Ohio State, I'm not docking anyone for it
- MICHIGAN (4) - closer to the UW/PSU group than the middle group now though
- MINNESOTA (5) - I'm legitimately excited, two weeks in advance, for Penn State-Minnesota
- IOWA (6) - not the most fun game to watch
- INDIANA (8) - first 8 win season since 1993 is very much on the table
- MICHIGAN STATE (7) - I certainly wouldn't pick MSU to win a rematch with Indiana anymore
- ILLINOIS (9) - does anyone think they won't win at least two more to get to a bowl game?
- NEBRASKA (12) - the bottom of the Big Ten, where losing at home to Indiana...but close...moves you up two spots
- PURDUE (10) - you do have to wonder how this impacts recruiting momentum
- NORTHWESTERN (11) - Pat Fitzgerald needs to thank Dantonio for being equally offensively stubborn, but at a higher profile school
- MARYLAND (13) - a lot of the fears about Mike Locksley's head coaching ability starting to surface
- RUTGERS (14)
-
SP+
1. OSU (1)
2. PSU (7)
3. Wisconsin (8)
4. Miichigan (11)
5. Minnesota (12) (Yes the B1G has 5 of the top 12)
6. Iowa (20)
7. Indiana (23) (7 of the top 23, Hoosiers highest rated in the state)
8. MSU (29)
9. Nebraska (44)
10. Purdue (55)
11. Maryland (56)
12. Illinois (59)
13. Northwestern (76)
14. Rutgers (105)
-
10. NEBRASKA (12) - the bottom of the Big Ten, where losing at home to Indiana...but close...moves you up two spots
Nothing against Nebraska as it is one of my favorite environments, but that is pretty funny.
-
- Ohio State - 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1 - I was REALLY impressed with that game. The weather forced tOSU to play Wisconsin's style and the Buckeyes proceeded to bludgeon the Badgers at their own game.
- Penn State - 2,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,4 - Next game is an undefeated-vs-undefeated match with . . . Minnesota.
- Wisconsin - 3,2,2,2,2,2,2,4,3 - That Michigan game now feels like it was a year ago rather than a month. The Iowa game in two weeks is huge.
- Michigan - 4,4,4,5,5,4,4,2,2 - 0-2 against teams above this, 3-0 against teams below this.
- Iowa - 5,5,5,4,4,5,6,5,6 - Looked good, Wisconsin game in two weeks is huge.
- Minnesota - 6,6,9,10,10,10,8,13,10 - Undefeated but I still don't trust them. We'll find out in two weeks.
- Michigan State - 7,7,6,6,6,7,7,7,9 - 0-3 against teams above this, 2-0 against teams below this.
- Indiana - 10,10,11,11,11,11,13,12,12 - Close but they got the W.
- Illinois - 13,13,13,13,13,13,12,11,13 - Does anyone think they would lose to Nebraska if the two played again?
- Nebraska - 11,11,8,9,8,6,9,6,8 - off.
- Purdue - 9,9,12,12,12,12,11,10,5 - Bowl plans cancelled.
- Northwestern - 8,8,7,7,9,9,10,9,7 - Ouch.
- Maryland - 12,12,10,8,7,8,5,8,11 - What happened to this season? Haven't I asked that about this team in previous seasons as well?
- Rutgers - 14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14 - Still Rutgers.
-
1) OSU
2) Wisconsin
3) PSU
4) Michigan
5) Iowa
6) MSU
7) Minnesota
8) Indiana
9) Illinois
10) Nebraska
11) Maryland
12) Purdue
13) NW
14) Rutgers
-
Results posted, votes through The Loon, 16 voters.
There was very little change this week:
- Illinois was up 1.5 spots from 11th into a tie with Nebraska for 9th/10th.
- Nebraska was down 0.5 spots into the aforementioned tie.
- Purdue was down one spot to 11th.
The gap between #7 MSU and #8 Indiana has gotten VERY small. Two weeks ago when Indiana moved up into 8th place and Michigan State moved down into 7th place, the gap between them was humongous, 2.28. Now it is less than 0.5.
At this point in the season most teams' rankings are relatively locked in. Ie, Ohio State can't fall THAT far because no matter what happens from here out they'll still have that big win over Wisconsin propping them up. Similarly, Rutgers can't rise THAT far because no matter what happens from here out they'll still have that blowout loss to Maryland holding them back. The biggest exception to that is Minnesota. They are 5-0 but their wins are over:
- The two teams tied for 9th/10th, Nebraska and Illinois
- #11 Purdue
- #13 Maryland
- #14 Rutgers
They are currently fifth but their ceiling is unlimited. If they beat Penn State in their next game they will almost have to move to #2. Their floor, however, is pretty low. If they start losing they could pretty easily fall to #8.
That PSU/MN game probably has more B1G Power Ranking impact on one team than any game I can remember. Minnesota probably moves to #2 with a win and with a loss they drop to at least sixth and possibly as low as eighth.
COTY:
I refer to my "change so far this year" graph as the COTY prediction table because that award generally goes to the coach of the team that most exceeded expectations. That also explains why it hasn't been won by an Ohio State coach in 40 years. Ohio State, right now, is as high as they could possibly be. They are a unanimous #1 but on the COTY table they are a pedestrian sixth place only 0.65 ahead of where they started. The expectations in Columbus are generally so high that the Ohio State coach is effectively ineligible for this award. Who will win COTY?
At this point I think it is PJ Fleck's to lose. I cannot imagine a scenario in which Minnesota goes to Indianapolis and Fleck does not get COTY.
If Minnesota stumbles then I think COTY is between Tom Allen (Indiana) and Lovie Smith (Illinois). The only other potential winner, IMHO, is James Franklin (PSU).
-
This week's games by Power Ranking:
- #1 Ohio State is off
- #2 Penn State is off
- #3 Wisconsin is off
- #4 Michigan at #13 Maryland
- #5 Minnesota is off
- #6 Iowa is off
- #7 Michigan State is off
- #8 Indiana vs #12 Northwestern
- #9/10 Nebraska at #11 Purdue
- #9/10 Illinois vs #14 Rutgers
Wow, what a lightweight schedule. Six teams are off and they constitute six of the top seven in the league. Of the four games being played, Nebraska at Purdue seems to be the most interesting from a rankings perspective.
Since there are so few games this week, I'll peek ahead to next week:
- #1 Ohio State vs #13 Maryland
- #2 Penn State at #5 Minnesota
- #3 Wisconsin vs #6 Iowa
- #4 Michigan is off
- #7 Michigan State vs #9/10 Illinois
- #8 Indiana is off
- #9/10 Nebraska is off
- #11 Purdue at #12 Northwestern
Next week's slate is REALLY interesting. PSU/MN is HUGE for the B1G-W race. The Wisconsin/Iowa winner really could use a PSU win. UW/IA is conditionally the biggest game of the week, conditional on MN losing to PSU. Michigan State/Illinois will show us how far MSU has fallen and how far Illinois has risen. Purdue/Northwestern matches two teams currently adjacent in the Power Rankings so I'm always interested in that.
-
2 weeks ago, I would have insisted that Paul Chryst would be the runaway winner of the COTY
-
PJ if he can win two or more down the stretch
otherwise the new guy in C-Bus
-
PJ if he can win two or more down the stretch
otherwise the new guy in C-Bus
I just can't see Day winning but I guess it *COULD* happen. The last Ohio State Coach to win it was Earle Bruce in 1979. It was a somewhat similar situation.
- Bruce followed a legend (Hayes).
- Day followed a legend (Meyer).
- Bruce's first team was expected to be good, but not necessarily NC level good.
- Day's first team was expected to be good, but not necessarily NC level good.
- Bruce's first team had an undefeated regular season (11-0)
- Day's first team is undefeated so far (8-0)
- Bruce's first team entered the Rose Bowl undefeated and ranked #1 playing #3 USC for a NC.
- Day's first team is up to #3 and controls their own destiny to the CFP
Here is where the similarities end:
- Bruce's first team started out UNRANKED.
- Day's first team started out ranked #5.
- Woody's last team (the year prior to Bruce's COTY) went 7-4-1 and finished unranked.
- Meyer's last team (last year) went 13-1 and finished ranked #3.
- The three years prior to Bruce's first year the Buckeyes finished 7-4-1 and unranked, 9-3 and #11, and 9-2-1 and #6.
- The three years prior to Day's first year the Buckeyes finished 13-1 and #3, 12-2 and #5, and 11-2 and #6.
I just don't see it. I'd like to see it, but I do not think it will happen unless Minnesota, Indiana, and Illinois all crash and burn.
-
well, Lovie ain't gonna get it and Brutus will tell you that it won't be Harbaugh
I think the guy in Hoosierville would need to pull off an upset over Penn St, or Michigan, or both to win it
It's PJ Barnum's to lose IMO
-
Forgot to post these this week, updated Massey composite computer ranking, with 112 rankings (last week in parenthesis)
- OHIO STATE (1)
- LSU (2)
- Clemson (3)
- PENN STATE (5)
- Alabama (4)
- Auburn (7)
- Oregon (8)
- Florida (9)
- Oklahoma (6)
- Utah (13)
- Baylor (11)
- WISCONSIN (10)
- MICHIGAN (23)
- MINNESOTA (17)
- Cincinnati (15)
- Georgia (14)
- SMU (16)
- IOWA (22)
- Appalachian State (18)
- Notre Dame (12)
- Central Florida (-)
- Boise State (24)
- Navy (-)
- Memphis (21)
- Kansas State (-)
- 34. Michigan State (30)
- 35. Indiana (41)
- 63. Nebraska (58)
- 66. Illinois (85)
- 88. Purdue (75)
- 90. Maryland (82)
- 96. Northwestern (90)
- 118. Rutgers (121)
-
UNL is basically one of the worst P5 conference programs right now... bottom 5 if you review the past 3 years. That's a reality UNL fans still can't grip.
-
bottom 5 seems a bit low, but I don't have the energy to argue this point
-
Nebraska has history, but I wonder if they actually are finally feeling the effects of terrible demographics for a P5 program.
Nebraska is ranked 38th in population, with only 1.9M residents. While they're the only P5 program in the state, and potentially can draw recruits from the Dakotas who don't have FBS programs, it's not the sort of fertile recruiting ground that can support an elite football team IMHO.
I have to wonder if Pelini-level performance is the ceiling.
-
it certainly makes recruiting more difficult
if you believe the recruiting services, the Husker's star ranking has been solid the past decade or so. Pelini's recruiting was lower than Callahan and Riley.
according to 247 Sports Huskers recruiting:
2019 - #18
2018 - #23
2017 - #23
2016 - #26
2015 - #30
2014 - #35
2013 - #22
2012 - #32
2011 - #16
I think there is decent physical talent on the roster. Perhaps not fitting Frost's scheme's perfectly.
I'm more of the opinion that Riley's soft culture, recruited and developed soft kids. Physically and more importantly mentally.
If Frost gets this turned around and wins some games, I feel he can recruit well enough to win the West. Not every year mind you, but be very competitive.
-
sorry.. I was off... 8th before last weeks loss:
(https://twitter.com/heady_chris)Christopher Heady
@heady_chris
(https://twitter.com/heady_chris)
·
Oct 26 (https://twitter.com/heady_chris/status/1188311696257028097)
Since the beginning of the 2017 football season, Nebraska has just 12 total wins. That ranks 57th among Power 5 teams.
The #Huskers (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Huskers?src=hashtag_click) are only ahead of UCLA, Illinois, North Carolina, Arkansas, Kansas, Rutgers and Oregon State.
-
So, Taggert was better than Frost
dern!
-
Nebraska has history, but I wonder if they actually are finally feeling the effects of terrible demographics for a P5 program.
Nebraska is ranked 38th in population, with only 1.9M residents. While they're the only P5 program in the state, and potentially can draw recruits from the Dakotas who don't have FBS programs, it's not the sort of fertile recruiting ground that can support an elite football team IMHO.
I have to wonder if Pelini-level performance is the ceiling.
I think that the modern landscape of the sport has made it VERY difficult for formerly elite programs that lack a strong home recruiting base. I would include Tennessee, Nebraska, and another B1G school in that list.
-
it wasn't easy to recruit to Lincoln in the 60's, 70's, 80's, or 90's
it's not easy to recruit to Madison, WI, but there are great football players there playing at a high level
I'm not throwing in the towel