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Topic: B1G Power Rankings, week 8

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FearlessF

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 8
« Reply #98 on: October 27, 2021, 05:00:19 PM »
did UC get a check for traveling to South Bend???

how about the trip to Bloomington?

one way to help scheduling is travel w/o $$$
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 8
« Reply #99 on: October 27, 2021, 05:02:08 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 27, 2021, 04:48:12 PM
A factor in scheduling for UC of course is who among the G5 wants to play them.  They might have tried to schedule say UK and got turned down of course.

It helps I think that they were competitive with UGA in their bowl game last year.
It should help. 

But that was always the argument for Boise State. One undefeated year wasn't enough. Pretty much you'd need two consecutive undefeated years even to be considered. 

But I'm increasingly of the opinion that G5 won't ever be considered. 
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 8
« Reply #100 on: October 27, 2021, 05:06:26 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on October 27, 2021, 05:00:19 PM
did UC get a check for traveling to South Bend???

how about the trip to Bloomington?

one way to help scheduling is travel w/o $$$
Yeah, fun...

"We schedule 5-10 years out. There's a chance we might be good at some point, so let's financially destroy our football program to schedule four P5 teams where 9 years out of 10 we'll start 0-4 without even getting a paycheck, in the hopes that maybe, someday, we'll be good enough that the SOS and going undefeated will get us in the playoff. If there are fewer than four 1-loss P5 conf champs (or non-champ) Alabama. That's a great bet."

I love how the answer is always "well they should just do something that's horrifically stupid to overcome this rigged game" instead of fixing the rigged game. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 8
« Reply #101 on: October 27, 2021, 05:06:50 PM »
I think if UC wins out in decent style, they get the four spot, but that depends on who else is a plausible alternative.  They might get to play UGA again. a fully loaded UGA team.  I suspect a 12-1 Ohio State makes the cut and a 13-0 OU if they go 13-0.  A key for UC could be whether a 12-0 UGA beats a 11-1 Bama, if that happens.
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FearlessF

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 8
« Reply #102 on: October 27, 2021, 05:12:24 PM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 27, 2021, 05:06:26 PM
Yeah, fun...

"We schedule 5-10 years out. There's a chance we might be good at some point, so let's financially destroy our football program to schedule four P5 teams where 9 years out of 10 we'll start 0-4 without even getting a paycheck, in the hopes that maybe, someday, we'll be good enough that the SOS and going undefeated will get us in the playoff. If there are fewer than four 1-loss P5 conf champs (or non-champ) Alabama. That's a great bet."

I love how the answer is always "well they should just do something that's horrifically stupid to overcome this rigged game" instead of fixing the rigged game.
what's rigged about earning respect on the field of play?

the same issue exists for the PAC and to a certain extent, the Big 12 and could this season for the ACC

their conference schedules don't stack up and they get left out some seasons
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 8
« Reply #103 on: October 27, 2021, 05:37:29 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on October 27, 2021, 05:12:24 PM
what's rigged about earning respect on the field of play?

the same issue exists for the PAC and to a certain extent, the Big 12 and could this season for the ACC

their conference schedules don't stack up and they get left out some seasons
A PAC, B12, or ACC team will not get left out at 13-0. Cincinnati probably will. 

I'm saying is that in the world in which we live, you can't say "Oh I'm projected to be really good next year. Let me go schedule 4 P5 teams OOC for free so I have a resume." You have to be planning half a decade or more ahead. So do you schedule 4 P5 teams without a paycheck 5-10 years ahead when you hope to catch lightning in a bottle ONE of those 5-10 years? Which means most years you're scheduling 4 losses before you even get into conference play the other 9 out of 10 years. And if you do it without a paycheck, you're financially crippling your program. Paycheck games these days are probably close to $1M each, and Cincinnati team generates somewhere around $10M per year from football. 

You say "just schedule more P5 OOC!" Well, they have to plan their schedule year-in year-out when every team knows you need 6+ wins to get to a bowl, winning records to keep positive perception of your program and recruiting, etc. If you're a G5 and you're starting in a 0-4 hole most years before you get to conference play, well then you're never going to get the recruits you need to push through that glass ceiling, because you need to go 6-2 in conference just to hit .500 ball. 

You say "well if you have trouble scheduling P5, play them for free!" Well, in a world where football and [occasionally] men's basketball are the only revenue-generating sports for most schools, and men's basketball is probably questionable for most G5, you're asking them to turn away the revenue that is the lifeblood of their entire athletic department. 

The net effect is that G5 is always going to be a glass ceiling, and there will ALWAYS be reasons to justify why a G5 in any given year should be kept outside the velvet ropes. The reasons will change as needed; the result will be the same. 

Either fix the system, or make the glass ceiling a real ceiling and split off the P5. 
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FearlessF

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 8
« Reply #104 on: October 27, 2021, 09:13:03 PM »
I'm just saying that your resume to qualify for the top 4 teams in the nation after the reg season is what you have accomplished on the field of play

you need to be very impressive to make the top 4

a G5 schedule is tough to overcome

maybe impossible, but whiners are not well received 
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 8
« Reply #105 on: October 27, 2021, 09:33:58 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on October 27, 2021, 09:13:03 PM
I'm just saying that your resume to qualify for the top 4 teams in the nation after the reg season is what you have accomplished on the field of play

you need to be very impressive to make the top 4

a G5 schedule is tough to overcome

maybe impossible, but whiners are not well received
I get that.

But what got this started was the idea that OSU or Alabama should be in there with two losses. That ain't exactly an ideal "resume". They may have the best team; they don't have a deserving resume. 
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FearlessF

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 8
« Reply #106 on: October 27, 2021, 09:45:08 PM »
2 losses is unacceptable

not many programs have done that, regardless of resume

I would also go undefeated UC over a 2 loss tOSU or Bama
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um1963

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 8
« Reply #107 on: October 28, 2021, 12:11:59 AM »
Quote from: FearlessF on October 27, 2021, 09:45:08 PM
2 losses is unacceptable

not many programs have done that, regardless of resume

I would also go undefeated UC over a 2 loss tOSU or Bama
I've watched Cincy, Bama and OSU play.  I'm fairly confident that Cincy wouldn't beat either of them if they played this year.  I think the majority of others who posted here would agree with this assessment.  There will be nothing special in Cincy's body of work if they run the table.  I'm also fairly confident both OSU and Bama could win out playing Cincy's schedule.  So knowing this why bother placing Cincy?

Or look at it this way, if you were the one seed and could somehow choose the 4 seed to play in the first round between an undefeated Cincy or a two loss Bama/OSU who would you pick?  We'd do the logical thing and take the easy win over Cincy.

Could Cincy win the Big Ten or SEC if they were in one of these conferences this year?

It just bothers me that we're somehow not allowed to watch teams play over a 12 game season and maybe come to the conclusion that a team with a lesser record from a much stronger conference/division and tougher schedule could possibly be better than a team with a better record from a shit conference and a red carpet schedule when it literally happens every single season.

And while the focus has been on Cincy, I've felt the same way in past seasons about undefeated and one loss teams coming out of P5 conferences and Notre Dame.  The SEC and Big Ten almost always have someone worth considering (typically Bama and OSU), but there are years where I look at what's coming out of the PAC, Big 12, anyone not named Clemson in the ACC and Notre Dame and I'm thinking to myself why is this team in the discussion?
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Hawkinole

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 8
« Reply #108 on: October 28, 2021, 02:40:38 AM »
Quote from: um1963 on October 28, 2021, 12:11:59 AM
I've watched Cincy, Bama and OSU play.  
In person, or on TV? 
It makes a difference. On television especially in general you cannot see developing pass contentions between receivers and defenders. You can see pass defense in person. On TV I see weakness in Alabama. And I see strength in GA. I am guessing Alabama ranks 6-8 by season end. And GA conquers Alabama as #1.
There was obvious weakness in OSU defense in the first few games. The weakness seems to be resolved with weak opponents. Penn State has good defense and when health has a decent offense. There is a 75% chance Ohio State defeats Penn State. I cannot exclude the somewhat less likely scenario.
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MaximumSam

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 8
« Reply #109 on: October 28, 2021, 07:00:09 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 27, 2021, 04:20:02 PM
The problem is that Cincy hasn't been "much more impressive" in their games.  They have:
  • A 35 point win over a bad MAC school, Miami, OH:  Good win but nothing to write home about for a NC contender. 
  • A 35 point win over an FCS school, Murray State:  I don't care if you beat an FCS team, particularly a BAD FCS team like Murray State by 150 points it is still just a win over an FCS school and I'm not impressed. 
  • A 14 point win over IU:  I covered this at length above but this is clearly NOT impressive for an NC contender.  Legitimate power teams that have played IU did MUCH better even before the injury to IU's QB. 
  • A 9 point win over ND:  Ok, I guess this is their big impressive win and it came against a team that barely beat FSU, Toledo, and VaTech. 
  • A 49 point win over Temple:  For comparison, Rutgers beat Temple by 47.  Like the win over Miami, OH it is good but nothing to hang your hat on. 
  • A 35 point win over UCF:  I actually think this one is probably more impressive than their win over ND.  The 56 points that UC scored is the most given up by UCF all year and the 21 given up to UCF was within a point of the fewest scored by UCF all year. 
  • A 7 point win over Navy:  This is NOT impressive at all.  These are not Roger Staubach's Midshipmen.  Navy is 1-6 with a 42 point loss to Marhsall, a 20 point loss to Air Force, an 18 point loss to Memphis, an 8 point loss to Houston, and a seven point loss to SMU.  If Ohio State had beaten Navy by only a TD they'd have dropped in the polls and SportsCenter would have devoted entire segments to "what is wrong with the Buckeyes".  If UC is going to be treated like a legitimate NC contender then that should apply across the board and they should have dropped from #2 to at least #4 for this unimpressive win then had "what is wrong with Cincy" as a major discussion topic of the week.  Instead they seem to be given a pass because they are "just Cincy".  Like I said upthread it should be one or the other.  Either they are a NC contender or they aren't.  If they are then dock them for the close win over Navy like you would any other NC contender or they aren't in which case they shouldn't be taking a spot from a legitimate team in the top-10. 
    But compare to Wake!
    • A 32 point win over Old Dominion. Old Dominion has 1 win, over Hampton
    • A 25 point win over Norfolk State. FCS school
    • A 21 point win over Florida State. FSU is 3-4 and lost to Jacksonville State.
    • A 20 point win over Virginia. Virginia is 4-2, and this is easily their best win.
    • A 3 point win over Louisville. Louisville is roughly on the level with UCF, who they beat by 7.
    • A 3 point win over Syracuse in OT. Syracuse lost by 10 to Rutgers.
    • A 14 point win over Army. Army is not a garbage team, though giving up 56 to Army seems humanly impossible. Army lost to Ball State and scored more against Wake than they did against UConn.

    In any event, I don't know how anyone could look at that and conclude it would be "unfair" to poor Wake Forest if they had to run through that murderer's row of opponents and be left out of the playoffs.

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Cincydawg

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 8
« Reply #110 on: October 28, 2021, 07:15:13 AM »
Bama does have some issues on defense this year.  I think they'd still manhandle UC handily.  The same and more is true for Wake, who in any event will get beat a couple times from here.  Ohio State would beat UC by 3 TDs I suspect.  I have respect for what Fickell is doing at UC and if they make the playoff, fine with me, he's doing a remarkable job coaching there even if they get whomped, IMHo.  Kelly got them pretty good back in the day and Fickell has built them back up after whoever was coach in between.

Right now, the four "best teams" in my book would be Ohio State, the two SEC guys, and I guess Oklahoma at 4, who has not impressed.  I'd rather see more diversity though.  Fortunately we have more upsets to come.
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MaximumSam

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 8
« Reply #111 on: October 28, 2021, 08:16:18 AM »
I don't know how anyone could say Bammer and OSU would definitely go undefeated on Cincy's schedule, considering they haven't gone undefeated on their own schedule, and TAMU and Oregon aren't any better than Notre Dame.
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