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Topic: B1G Power Rankings, week 8
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medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #56 on:** October 26, 2021, 11:29:38 PM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 26, 2021, 07:02:58 PM

I admit a top P5 school is BETTER than Cincy. But if you don't even let them in at that point? Just break it into two divisions and officially block them out of ever appearing in the CFP. Because you'll NEVER let them in if you don't let them in over a 2-loss P5 helmet.

If it were up to me they wouldn't be locked out forever and always but they would HAVE to play a decent schedule to be considered. Playing one top-35 team and winning just doesn't prove anything to me for two reasons:

We all know that upsets happen so ONE win against a team with a pulse could be a fluke, we don't know.
The grind of playing decent teams week-after-week is completely different and vastly more difficult than only having to play at your best once all year because your other 11 opponents just flat out suck.

I obviously cherry-picked "top-35" because Cincy's #2 opponent is #36 but look at the comparison above. It doesn't matter where you make the cut-off:

Top-35: Cincy has one, tOSU has four.
Top-50: Cincy has three, tOSU has six (that that is cherry picking against tOSU since they also have #51).
Top-75: Cincy has five, tOSU has nine.
Top-100: Cincy has seven, tOSU has 11.
FBS teams: Cincy has 11, tOSU has 12.

I'm only using tOSU here because that is how the conversation started before I got involved. The same would apply to Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, whatever.

MaximumSam · « **Reply #57 on:** October 27, 2021, 06:22:02 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 26, 2021, 11:22:32 PM

Gotta say you just don't like the facts.

2019 tOSU was really good because the top P5 teams are really good. 2002 tOSU had a lot of close games, so what.

You didn't bother to address the current year fact that when Cincy played IU it was a dogfight. If you watched IU all season you probably shut the tOSU, IA, and PSU games off at halftime when the Hoosiers trailed 44-7, 31-3, and 14-0 respectively. In the Cincy game they led 14-10 at the half. IU is currently 0-4 in the B1G and Cincy is roughly at their level. If Cincy were a B1G team they wouldn't even be ranked. Instead they are fat on cupcakes and idiots rank them #2.

Why were Ohio State, Penn State, and Iowa all able to wipe the floor with Indiana and play backups in the second half while Cincy didn't take their first lead until the third quarter and trailed in the fourth? The answer is obvious if you allow yourself to see it.

Speaking of facts:

Cincy beat Indiana and Notre Dame on the road by double digits
Wisconsin, which was blown out by Notre Dame, can still win the B1G
The PAC12 is 0-4 against BYU
Oregon beat Ohio State by the same margin they beat Fresno State
Penn State lost to Illinois, which lost to UT-San Antonio
Pitt is in great position to win the ACC, lost to Western Michigan
Oklahoma is #4 and has single digit wins over Texas, Nebraska, Kansas State, West Virginia, and Tulane (as well as being 2 minutes away from a single digit win over Kansas)
It is insane to view those facts and conclude that no G5 team can be better than a P5 champ

TyphonInc · « **Reply #58 on:** October 27, 2021, 07:12:59 AM »

Ahh, I love this 'post truth' era, where everyone can cherry pick stats to prove their version of truth is right.

Didn't Cincinnati beat up the Hoosiers? Wasn't that Penix's last game? Maybe full strength Indiana gives the B1G teams a better run for their money?

I think the current system needs to evolve, right now the CFP is the only way for a G5 team to win a national championship. If we effectively bar them from even participating, the system is broken. This Bearcat team has one 3 point loss to a top 10 Georgia team in the last two years. They are really good.

Cincinnati has done everything they can do to deserve inclusion in the CFP. And they scheduled one of the toughest OOC schedules to try and show they were one of the best teams as well.

MaximumSam · « **Reply #59 on:** October 27, 2021, 07:29:08 AM »

And btw, I'm not one that thinks Cincy automatically deserves a bid. At the end of the season, you see who the best teams have been. Tough to do that midstream. But I just think it is crazy to say Cincy or any other team can't be considered, no matter what the results on the field are.

FearlessF · « **Reply #60 on:** October 27, 2021, 09:20:12 AM »

I don't consider Miami-Ohio, Murray, Indiana, and ND to be one of the toughest non-con schedules

ND is solid

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #61 on:** October 27, 2021, 12:56:13 PM »

Quote from: TyphonInc on October 27, 2021, 07:12:59 AM

Cincinnati has done everything they can do to deserve inclusion in the CFP. And they scheduled one of the toughest OOC schedules to try and show they were one of the best teams as well.

This would be a really good argument if it were true but as you know, it is false. You can't schedule an FCS team in your OOC then argue that you scheduled a tough OOC.

Cincy's OOC included an FCS team (Murray State), a bad MAC school (Miami, OH), a mediocre (at best) B1G school (IU) and Notre Dame. Per the rankings that I posted above, their OOC was:

#8 Notre Dame
#57 Indiana
#95 Miami, OH
FCS

By way of comparison, tOSU's OOC was:

#10 Oregon
#71 Tulsa
#119 Akron

I'm not even sure that Cincy's OOC is better overall than Ohio State's. ND and Oregon are roughly equivalent. Indiana is better than Tulsa and Miami, OH is better than Akron but Cincy also has that FCS team and Murray State isn't even a good FCS team, they are 3-4 with the other three losses coming to BGSU, UT-Martin, and Austin Peay.

Even if I simply concede that UC's OOC is vastly better than Ohio State's it OBVIOUSLY is not anywhere near enough to make up for the fact that their best league opponent is #36. Ohio State has three league opponents in the top-15.

I don't vouch for this link, it was simply the first thing that came up when I googled "fbs sos rankings" but using their SOS rankings, here is the current AP Top-25 with each team's SoS ranking:

Georgia - 29
Cincy - 78
Bama - 50
Oklahoma - 38
Ohio State - 33
Michigan - 13
Oregon - 69
Michigan State - 40
Iowa - 12
Ole Miss - 10
Notre Dame - 9
Kentucky - 70
Wake Forest - 63
aTm - 17
OkSU - 5
Baylor - 6
Pitt - 66
Auburn - 3
SMU - 75 <- best G5
Penn State - 26
SDSU - 115
Iowa State - 20
UTSA - 126
CCU - 121
BYU - 81

Since you excel at not seeing things you don't want to see I'll reorganize that list by SoS ranking:

3 Auburn
5 OkSU
6 Baylor
9 Notre Dame
10 Ole Miss
12 Iowa
13 Michigan
17 aTm
20 Iowa State
26 Penn State
29 Georgia
33 Ohio State
38 Oklahoma
40 Michigan State
50 Bama
63 Wake Forest
66 Pitt
69 Oregon
70 Kentucky
75 SMU
79 Cincy
81 BYU
115 SDSU
121 CCU
126 UTSA

Open your eyes and you shall see. NONE of the ranked G5 schools play decent schedules and the gap between their schedules and even a mediocre P5 schedule is humongous.

um1963 · « **Reply #62 on:** October 27, 2021, 01:01:42 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 26, 2021, 11:15:34 PM

This.

If you want to be included, do what FSU did back in the day and take an "anyone, anywhere" approach to scheduling.

In 1981 independent FSU went on a five-game road trip of:
@ Nebraska on 9/19
@ Ohio State on 10/3
@ Notre Dame on 10/10
@ Pitt on 10/17 (this was when Pitt was good)
@ LSU on 10/24
They wanted to be included in the NC discussion so they made a contender schedule. They beat tOSU, ND, and LSU but lost to Nebraska and Pitt. At least they tried. When your second best game is against #36 you don't have an argument.

I wasn't aware of this, thanks for sharing Medina. Guess I was still a little too young to see this play out. I would like to see more up and coming schools take this approach. A limited four team playoff just isn't the platform to find out if a team is any good.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #63 on:** October 27, 2021, 01:07:14 PM »

There really is no incentive for G5 schools to schedule like that today.

UC might be in this year, without the killer schedule. That will become the model.

FearlessF · « **Reply #64 on:** October 27, 2021, 01:20:37 PM »

until a G5 team gets in with an easy schedule.. 1981 independent FSU is the model

MaximumSam · « **Reply #65 on:** October 27, 2021, 01:33:21 PM »

Quote

Open your eyes and you shall see. NONE of the ranked G5 schools play decent schedules and the gap between their schedules and even a mediocre P5 schedule is humongous.

*ack*

Quote

63 Wake Forest
66 Pitt
69 Oregon
70 Kentucky
75 SMU
79 Cincy

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #66 on:** October 27, 2021, 01:34:04 PM »

Fundamentally, this is a fairness issue.

When a typical G5 team beats a mediocre P5 team like Indiana by 2 TD's in a hard fought game with multiple lead changes that could have gone either way, we pat that G5 team on the head and say "nice job".

When a typical NC Contender beats a mediocre P5 team like Indiana by 2 TD's in a hard fought game with multiple lead changes that could have gone either way, we drop that P5 team multiple spots in the rankings and say "WTF is wrong with (insert NC Contender here)".

Cincinnati can't have it both ways:

If they are a typical G5 team then their hard fought win over IU is a real accomplishment and they deserve a head pat and a hearty "nice job".
If they are a NC contender then their hard fought win over IU is an embarrassment and they should have been docked for it.

Now it is true that SOME legitimate (ie, non-Cincy) NC Contenders will have and have had losses and unimpressive wins similar to Cincy's win over IU but there is a difference. When we look at the Buckeyes and say "hey, they 'only' beat Minnesota by 14 and they lost to Oregon" the answer to that criticism is that Ohio State's schedule is tough enough that they will have an opportunity to show us that the less impressive performances were outliers.

Cincinnati simply doesn't have that chance because they didn't schedule the quality OOC that they need to make up for their crappy league. Indiana is the 4th toughest team that they will face before the bowls. For comparison Indiana is the 8th toughest team that tOSU will face before the bowls. Cincinnati needed to shine in that game to show that they belonged with the big boys and they didn't. Instead they looked like they don't belong at all.

Here is a comparison of the score differential in Indiana's game against tOSU, Iowa, PSU, and Cincy:

The bolded positions are when Indiana was within two scores. Someone upthread argued that Penix was full strength against Cincy. Ok, then ignore the tOSU results but Penix was full strength in game #1 against Iowa and he was for at least most of the game against PSU IIRC.

To be fair, MSU also had a very unimpressive performance against Indiana. Personally, I have them ranked lower than most everybody else here in part for that reason. The difference between MSU and Cincy is that MSU has multiple opportunities to prove me wrong, Cincy doesn't. If MSU really is a NC Contender then they'll beat Michigan this weekend, they'll beat Ohio State on 11/20, and they'll beat PSU on 11/27. Cincinnati doesn't have any opponents left that even compare to M, tOSU, and PSU.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #67 on:** October 27, 2021, 01:35:41 PM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2021, 01:07:14 PM

There really is no incentive for G5 schools to schedule like that today.

UC might be in this year, without the killer schedule. That will become the model.

And that is NOT something the sport should promote. That encourages a minimization of quality games as everyone tries to get the best W/L record they can since SoS is apparently irrelevant.

MaximumSam · « **Reply #68 on:** October 27, 2021, 01:37:12 PM »

I would say, Cincy needs to win their games and look good doing it. They've had one single digit win, against a bad Navy team. Can't have too many of those. However, the idea that they *need* a better schedule is wrong. If they beat the crap out of the teams they play, that's worth something too.

FearlessF · « **Reply #69 on:** October 27, 2021, 01:39:19 PM »

they need a better schedule imo

Murray st and Miami of Ohio are not enough

it shows they aren't trying by having those teams on the schedule

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Topic: B1G Power Rankings, week 8

medinabuckeye1

Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 8

MaximumSam

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TyphonInc

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MaximumSam

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FearlessF

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medinabuckeye1

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um1963

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847badgerfan

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FearlessF

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MaximumSam

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medinabuckeye1

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medinabuckeye1

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MaximumSam

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FearlessF

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