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flip OSU to #1 & Mich to #2 and that’s pretty much my list.

I treated this as your vote. His but with 1/2 flipped.

I think it is legitimately a really close call between tOSU and Michigan for the top spot.  Here are their results sorted by Sagrin ranking for their opponents:


Michigan's big win over Penn State stands out as easily the most impressive result by either team but their 13 and 7 point wins over Iowa and Maryland stand out the other way.  Ohio State seems to be a bit more consistent with nothing really jumping off the page in a good or a bad way relative to Michigan. 

As an Ohio State fan, Michigan looks scary to me.  I don't mean scary just to lesser teams, I mean scary to the Buckeyes as well.  When they are good, the Wolverines are REALLY good.  Here are Indiana's second half possessions against the Wolverine defense:

• 7 plays, 26 yards, punt
• 3 plays, 7 yards, punt
• 6 plays, 23 yards, punt
• 3 plays, -9 yards, punt
• 3 plays, -11 yards, fumble
• 6 plays, 8 yards, downs

That would be impressive against an FCS opponent, it is REALLY good. 

Here are Penn State's four possessions after they kicked a FG to take a second-half lead:

• 9 plays, 36 yards, downs (while down 24-17)
• 5 plays, 16 yards, punt (while down 31-17)
• 6 plays, 22 yards, downs (while down 34-17)
• 9 plays, 42 yards, downs (while down 41-17)

While their defense was doing that to the PSU offense, the Michigan offense scored on four straight drives (3 TD's, 1 FG) to turn a 17-16 PSU lead into a 41-17 Michigan blowout. 

Like I said, when they are good they are REALLY good.  That said, they also have a trend of letting inferior teams hang around.  Indiana was tied at the half and within one score until midway through the final quarter.  Penn State, despite getting statistically obliterated, was only down two at halftime and very briefly held a second half lead.  Maryland was within four at the half and within one score for all but a few minutes.  If they keep playing questionable first halves it is likely that one of the teams they should beat will knock them off and/or that Ohio State will build up such a massive lead that the Wolverines will be unable to catch up. 

That’s why it’s called complimentary football.  You will notice these drive stats you shared are all second half. 
Either you believe UM players are in better physical condition or, you understand that brand of football.  A close relative of Tresseball. 

At least part of any teams ability to run the ball is directly correlated to their legitimate threat to pass.  Teams with real balance on offense can hit you with either a run or pass on most downs.  If their is no legitimate pass threat, it is much easier to stop the run.  Unless….
your defense never gets a break because the offense keeps punting.  Then they get worn down, and can’t stop the run even when they know it is coming.  And, they start missing simple assignments and run fits.
This is what Michigan did to Penn State.  PSU offense has not much of a downfield passing threat.  Same with Iowa.  Over the course of a game, it becomes easy for the opponent to stop your run, and excel in their own.  Tressel was the master.  Harbaugh is every bit as good- but notice the pull away is almost always later in the game. 

It will be interesting- some of these upcoming matchups.    How many teams in the conference can legitimately beat you with true passing games, or powerful running games, that keep you honest on defense. 

7.  Minn -  maybe this is not Minn's year afterall.  Once potent offense has not been showing up in October.

I’m fully admitting the Gophers had me fooled after their road blowout of Michigan State. Minnesota was playing fantastic until Purdue deflated them after their Bye.

Additionally, Minnesota is currently ranked 1st nationally in Total Defense with 187.8 yds allowed per game, 14 yds fewer than the 2nd ranked team. The OL looks as big as anybody else. The QB/RB combination is as stable (though not as explosive) as anyone else’s.  I’m picking the Gophers to win the West and roll to a 10-2, 11-1 type of season. Expecting a 6-0 Minnesota when on Oct 22 they visit Penn State, the highest and only ranked opponent left on their schedule. Of course November games Vs rivals Iowa and Wisconsin will decide the West at season’s end.

The answer to your question is pretty much Ohio State and then a BIG dropoff.  On ESPN's stats page for conferences they list the top five in each category then if you want to see the rest you have to click "complete leaders".  Looking at the top passing and top rushing offenses in the B1G, tOSU is the only team that shows up on both lists (ie, is top-5 on both).  The Buckeyes are #1 in passing, just ahead of Purdue and #2 in rushing behind Michigan.  The rest of the top-5's are Purdue, UMD, NU, and IU at passing and M, MN, IL, and PSU at rushing. 

In total offense:

• 543.7 tOSU:  #1 passing, #2 rushing
• 473.6 M:  #1 rushing, #9 passing
• 458.9 UMD:  #3 passing, #8 rushing
• 446.6 PU:  #2 passing, #10 rushing
• 442.7 MN:  #3 rushing, #12 passing

There is a big dropoff between #5 MN and #6 UNL.  At least so far only Ohio State is really good at both.  Michigan is next but their passing game is a lot further behind tOSU's than tOSU's rushing game is behind M.  That said, this isn't opponent adjusted but that probably doesn't matter.  Michigan has played better league opponents so far but they played a horrible OOC so it probably is roughly a wash at least between those two.

Honestly two major things are holding Michigan back from being #1 right now imo. Red zone offense and down field passing game. And those are two pretty major things. Their red zone offense is kinda mediocre right now- they aren't converting enough TD's at a high enough clip. Michigan/JJ has only attempted 20 deep passes (20+ yards in air distance)- which is 4th least in the B1G- and JJ is only completing 35% of those throws- which is yeah- pretty bad.

JJ however is the #1 QB in the B1G vs blitz with 79% completion against the blitz, he's also #1 in the B1G at throwing under pressure at 64% completion, he's also #1 in the B1G at throwing the ball on the intermediate routes (10-20 yards in air distance) at 73%- which is actually also #1 in all the P5, and he's also #1 in the B1G at throwing the ball on short throws (air distance of less than 10 yards) at 90%- which is also 1st in all of the P5.

Every other metric/stat on offense, defense, and special teams- Michigan is either elite or damn near. They have to figure out that red zone offense and start converting more red zone trips into TDs. Michigan is only 16th in red zone scoring % metric in the P5. Ohio State is...1st. Michigan also has got to start attempting more down field passes 20+ yards in air distance and actually connecting on them- 35% won't cut it- JJ and that offense needs to improve greatly in those two areas or they ain't even coming close to beating Ohio State.

Hey, I need more voters. 

Here is my (now) weekly objective ranking based on relative performance against each league opponent:

Explanation:
Each B1G team has played either three or four opponents.  The opponents of each are ranked relative to each other.  For the teams that have played four opponents, they are ranked 1, 2, 3, 4.  For the teams that have played three opponents, they are ranked 1.5, 2.5, 3.5.  This is based purely on scoring differential.  Using the top two and bottom two as examples:

Against Ohio State:

• 1.5 MSU lost by 29
• 2.5 UW lost by 31
• 3.5 RU lost by 39

Against M:

• 1 UMD lost by 7
• 2 Iowa lost by 13
• 3 Indiana lost by 21
• 4 PSU lost by 24

Against Rutgers:

• 1.5 tOSU won by 39
• 2.5 Iowa won by 17
• 3.5 UNL won by 1

Against NU:

• 1.5 UW won by 35
• 2.5 PSU won by 10
• 3.5 UNL lost by 3

Ok, so the average rankings:

• 1.17 Ohio State
• 1.25 Michigan*
• 2.00 Purdue
• 2.17 Iowa
• 2.25 Maryland
• 2.50 Penn State
• 2.50 (tie) Illinois
• 2.75 Indiana
• 3.00 (tie) Minnesota
• 3.00 (tie) Wisconsin
• 3.00 (tie) Nebraska
• 3.00 (tie) Michigan State
• 3.17 Northwestern
• 3.33 Rutgers

*I really consider tOSU and M to be tied.  They are both the best against each opponent they have faced.  The difference in averages is because their opponents have faced different numbers of teams.  Ohio State is first of four against UW and MSU and first of three against RU while M is first of four against UMD and IU and first of three against PSU and IA.  This, of course, will change this weekend as the two teams will acquire their first common opponent.  Ohio State will fare either better or worse than Michigan did against Iowa.  Or, I suppose, Ohio State could beat Iowa by exactly 13 points in which case they'd be tied. 

I consider that one a 27-7 victory over Iowa. Iowa scored a garbage time touchdown when they were down 20 points with 8 seconds left in the game. Maryland kind of did the same thing- although that was a closer ball game and they were down 15 when they scored with 45 seconds left in the game. Neither of those games were as close as the final score indicated imo. 

How good are Michigan's and Ohio State's rushing attacks generally and relative to one-another.  Some data, here is a chart sorted by avg yards per opponent rushing attempt for B1G defenses:

Here is the same chart but with games against Ohio State and Michigan excluded:

When you exclude games against the Buckeyes and Wolverines, Illinois who has played neither drops from first to third because the Buckeyes and Wolverines shredded Rutgers and Maryland respectively.  Similarly:

• Iowa moves up from 5th to 4th because M.  
• UW moves up from 8th to 5th because tOSU.  
• PSU moves up from 12th to 7th because M.  

How have the Buckeyes and Wolverines done against B1G rush defenses:

• 1.91 Rutgers:  The Buckeyes shredded them for 252 yards and 5 TD's on 34 attempts at 7.41 per.  This included a 70 yard run, the longest allowed by RU all year.  Otherwise Rutgers has been stifling against the run allowing only 1.91 per attempt and only two non-tOSU TD's all year.  
• 2.57 Maryland:  The Wolverines shredded them for 243 yards and 2 TD's on 40 attempts at 6.08 per.  This included a 47 yard run, the longest allowed by UMD all year.  Otherwise Maryland has been stifling against the run allowing only 2.57 per attempt and only five non-M TS's all year.  
• 2.77 Illinois:  Ohio State will not play Illinois this year unless both make it to Indy, Michigan will play them the Saturday before Thanksgiving.  
• 2.78 Iowa:  Michigan did pretty well against them at 172 yards and 2 TD's on 42 attempts at 4.10 per.  Those are the only Rushing TD's Iowa has allowed so far.  Iowa was effective at preventing long runs.  The longest they have allowed all year is only 23 (21 yards less than the next best) and Michigan's long was only 20.  
• 2.87 Wisconsin:  The Buckeyes shredded them for 258 yards and 2 TD's on 43 attempts at 6 per.  
• 2.88 Michigan:  The Wolverines obviously don't play themselves and they don't play tOSU until after Thanksgiving.  
• 2.96 Penn State:  The Wolverines shredded them for 418 yards and 4 TD's on 55 attempts at 7.60 per.  This included a 67 yard run, the longest allowed by PSU all year.  
• 2.97 Ohio State:  The Buckeyes obviously don't play themselves and they don't play M until after Thanksgiving.  
• 3.20 Purdue:  Neither the Buckeyes nor the Wolverines will play Purdue this year unless Purdue makes it to Indy.  
• 3.52 Indiana:  Michigan was surprisingly unimpressive against the Hoosiers.  I'll assume that was due to the Mike Hart seizure.  
• 3.71 Minnesota:  Minnesota will not play either this year unless they find a way to get to Indy.  
• 3.77 Michigan State:  Ohio State did pretty well against them at 237 yards and a TD on 46 attempts at 5.15 per.  
• 4.38 Northwestern:  The Wildcats do not play Michigan this year and will not play Ohio State until November.  
• 4.90 Nebraska:  The old Blackshirts these are not.  The Cornhuskers do not play Ohio State this year and will not play Michigan until November.  

I love how SP+ just filters out all of the garbage stats.  Here's an article Conelly wrote about garbage time:

footballstudyhall.com/2017/10/20/16507348/college-football-analytics-game-states

He goes with:

• All first quarter plays count, no matter the score.
• Garbage time doesn’t kick in until a team is up 36 in the second quarter.
• Garbage time doesn’t kick in until a team is up 26 in the third quarter.
• Garbage time doesn’t kick in until a team is up 20 in the fourth quarter.

So you've got some work to do, medina.