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Topic: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
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847badgerfan · « **Reply #14 on:** September 30, 2019, 10:18:24 AM »

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on September 30, 2019, 09:58:42 AM

14. - Finally moving on from the Chris Ash disaster.

Probably to another disaster. End the experiment. NOW.

Big Beef Tacosupreme · « **Reply #15 on:** September 30, 2019, 11:01:32 AM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 30, 2019, 10:18:24 AM

Probably to another disaster. End the experiment. NOW.

Is that even possible?

Shoulda pushed for VT or UVA....

SFBadger96 · « **Reply #16 on:** September 30, 2019, 11:52:06 AM »

1) Ohio State: until someone proves differently.
2) Hmmm...Wisconsin: because it has the better win to date, and it's shaky win was better than Penn State's shaky win.
3) Penn State: delivered an in-conference beat down to remind everyone who's who in the East.
4) Iowa: don't everyone go sleeping on the Hawkeyes; they are looking good.
5) Michigan: done with last week's overreaction; Big Blue reminded everyone that it has better athletes than most of the conference.
6) Michigan State: another shaky one, though.
7) Minnesota: winning matters, I guess, but this has to be one of the most unimpressive 4-0 teams in the Power 5.
8) Northwestern: as usual a solid effort against the Badgers...still another loss.
9) Nebraska: ouch.
10) Maryland: that's going to leave a mark.
11) Indiana: points for putting in a decent showing?
12) Purdue: it was close...it was a loss.
13) Illinois: unimpressive against Idle.
14) Rutgers: sigh.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #17 on:** September 30, 2019, 12:10:13 PM »

Ohio State - 1,1,1,1,1 - I thought the Buckeyes would win, I didn't think they would do that.
Wisconsin - 2,2,2,4,3 - Close win, but Northwestern will do that to better teams.
Penn State - 3,3,3,3,4 - Wow!
Iowa - 4,5,6,5,6 - Looking good!
Michigan - 5,4,4,2,2 - Nice bounce-back!
Michigan State - 6,7,7,7,9 - That nine point win over IU was a LOT closer than the final score.
Northwestern - 9,9,10,9,7 - Got close to an upset this week.
Maryland - 7,8,5,8,11 - Ouch!
Nebraska - 8,6,9,6,8 - I expected better!
Minnesota - 10,10,8,13,10 - Nice win.
Indiana - 11,11,13,12,12 - Oh so close.
Purdue - 12,12,11,10,5 - Bowl eligibility is in serious jeopardy.
Illinois - 13,13,12,11,13 - Off.
Rutgers - 14,14,14,14,14 - Still Rutgers.

MaximumSam · « **Reply #18 on:** September 30, 2019, 01:00:34 PM »

SP+ Rankings

1. OSU (2)
2. PSU (7)
3. Wisconsin (8)
4. Michigan (13)
5. Iowa (20)
6. MSU (21)
7. Indiana (29)
8. Minnesota (33)
9. Nebraska (39)
10. Maryland (46)
11. Illinois (56)
12. Purdue (63)
13. Northwestern (69)
14. Rutgers (97)

MrNubbz · « **Reply #19 on:** September 30, 2019, 01:07:38 PM »

1)tOSU - yay
2)UW tough out saturday vs a feisty Wildcat squad
3)Iowa - still undefeated and has looked solid
4)Penn St could move up when going thru the meat of the order
5)Michigan - could be getting some traction
6)MSU - O-Line problems/injuries
7)Gophs - haven't lost
8)N'Western - scrappy but like N.O.B pointed out banged up
9)UNL - they'll get back on the horse
10)Indiana - tough loss
11)Purdue
12)Maryland - but have to get it together
13)Illinois
14)NJ State

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #20 on:** September 30, 2019, 04:18:32 PM »

Results posted, votes through @MrNubbz , 16 voters.

We have a lot more agreement this week. At this point every spot has at least half of us voting for the same team except #9, #10, #11.

The big move this week was Maryland slumping from #7 with a 7.29 average all the way down to #11 with a 10.57 average. Interestingly, PSU did not get a corresponding improvement as we are nearly universally agreed that tOSU and UW are the top-2 so there just wasn't much room for PSU to move up.

Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin convincingly beating Nebraska, Maryland, and Michigan respectively over the past two weeks has opened up a sizable gulf between the top few teams and everybody else. It will be interesting to see how Iowa/Michigan plays out this week. If Iowa wins they solidfy their place as one of the league's top-4. If Michigan wins they are probably our 4th best team and the gap between the top-3 and #4 appears to be humongous.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #21 on:** September 30, 2019, 04:28:36 PM »

Comparing the divisions based on our rankings:

tOSU > UW: B1G-E
PSU > IA: B1G-E
M > MN: B1G-E
MSU > NU: B1G-E
UNL > IU: B1G-W
UMD > PU: B1G-E
IL > RU: B1G-W

As of now, we collectively think that the B1G-E is better at five out of seven levels.

ELA · « **Reply #22 on:** September 30, 2019, 10:04:01 PM »

OHIO STATE (1) - just growing that gap
WISCONSIN (2) - bit of a letdown, need Coan to get back on track
PENN STATE (3) - holy cow
IOWA (4) - chance to make a statement this weekend
MICHIGAN STATE (5) - if more talented teams followed NW/IU blueprint, MSU would struggle annually to be .500
MICHIGAN (6) - not losing to lesser teams has never been Harbaugh's problem
MINNESOTA (8) - the difference between 4-0 and 0-4 is razor thin
INDIANA (9) - Indiana has a real quarterback it appears
MARYLAND (7) - nobody below them looked any better
NEBRASKA (10) - see above
PURDUE (11) - see above, plus injury list
NORTHWESTERN (12) - that was one of the least watchable non-MSU games I've ever seen
ILLINOIS (13) - bye week
RUTGERS (14) - on to the next former Rutgers coach!

LittlePig · « **Reply #23 on:** October 01, 2019, 08:10:45 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on September 30, 2019, 04:28:36 PM

Comparing the divisions based on our rankings:

tOSU > UW: B1G-E
PSU > IA: B1G-E
M > MN: B1G-E
MSU > NU: B1G-E
UNL > IU: B1G-W
UMD > PU: B1G-E
IL > RU: B1G-W
As of now, we collectively think that the B1G-E is better at five out of seven levels.

Another way to look at it

Average rank of East = 7.12
Average rank of West = 7.88

I predict the east-west race will be the same as always. In terms of win-loss record, the east will end up. winning by only 1 game in the regular reason. Then the East will once again win the CCG.

There really has only been 1 year so far, 2017, when the east actually dominated the regular season win-loss record. All other seasons have been virtual ties, with the ties broken by the East winning the championship game. The East is always stronger at the top.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #24 on:** October 01, 2019, 01:58:33 PM »

Quote from: LittlePig on October 01, 2019, 08:10:45 AM

Another way to look at it

Average rank of East = 7.12
Average rank of West = 7.88

I predict the east-west race will be the same as always. In terms of win-loss record, the east will end up. winning by only 1 game in the regular reason. Then the East will once again win the CCG.

There really has only been 1 year so far, 2017, when the east actually dominated the regular season win-loss record. All other seasons have been virtual ties, with the ties broken by the East winning the championship game. The East is always stronger at the top.

That is a fair point. Here are the gaps in average ranking for all of those that I listed above:

tOSU > UW: B1G-E by 1.07
PSU > IA: B1G-E by 0.40
M > MN: B1G-E by 2.00
MSU > NU: B1G-E by 2.80
UNL > IU: B1G-W by by 0.60
UMD > PU: B1G-E by 1.40
IL > RU: B1G-W by 1.40

They are mostly pretty close. The major exceptions are at #3 where we feel that Michigan is MUCH better than Northwestern and #4 where we feel that MSU is much better than Northwestern (as evidenced by MSU beating NU by 21 in Evanston).

From the look of things right now, I think that the B1G-E Championship race is more fluid. Ohio State is the clear leader but I feel that PSU, M, and MSU are all good enough that they *COULD* beat the Buckeyes on the right day. In the West it looks like the UW/IA game is the beginning and end of the Championship race.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #25 on:** October 01, 2019, 03:08:41 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 01, 2019, 01:58:33 PM

That is a fair point. Here are the gaps in average ranking for all of those that I listed above:
tOSU > UW: B1G-E by 1.07
PSU > IA: B1G-E by 0.40
M > MN: B1G-E by 2.00
MSU > NU: B1G-E by 2.80
UNL > IU: B1G-W by by 0.60
UMD > PU: B1G-E by 1.40
IL > RU: B1G-W by 1.40

They are mostly pretty close. The major exceptions are at #3 where we feel that Michigan is MUCH better than Northwestern and #4 where we feel that MSU is much better than Northwestern (as evidenced by MSU beating NU by 21 in Evanston).

From the look of things right now, I think that the B1G-E Championship race is more fluid. Ohio State is the clear leader but I feel that PSU, M, and MSU are all good enough that they *COULD* beat the Buckeyes on the right day. In the West it looks like the UW/IA game is the beginning and end of the Championship race.

My problem with this analysis is your drawing the conclusions in bold based on the numbers. It assumes a linearity that you can't really assume.

Although there is agreement on the pecking order, you can't immediately assume that the gaps between spots are as large as you make out.

Now, if you asked people to create a power ranking on a 100-point scale, you get enough granularity to start making quantitative judgements that you cant make here. But you don't have enough information in a 14-point scale to determine where the gaps exist or do not exist.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #26 on:** October 01, 2019, 03:20:58 PM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on October 01, 2019, 03:08:41 PM

My problem with this analysis is your drawing the conclusions in bold based on the numbers. It assumes a linearity that you can't really assume.

Although there is agreement on the pecking order, you can't immediately assume that the gaps between spots are as large as you make out.

Now, if you asked people to create a power ranking on a 100-point scale, you get enough granularity to start making quantitative judgements that you cant make here. But you don't have enough information in a 14-point scale to determine where the gaps exist or do not exist.

To an extent, I think that you are right. I do think that I have partially accounted for your point by using the ranking average not the ranking. Ie, if you just look at the rankings, Iowa is fourth, one spot behind #3 Penn State and one spot ahead of #5 Michigan. However, when you look at the ranking averages you can see that Iowa is close to PSU (just 0.40 behind) and substantially ahead of Michigan (up by 0.67).

In general, I think that if we collectively believe that two teams are REALLY close then about half of us will have one ahead of the other and the other half vice-versa such that their ranking averages will be VERY close. For example, Ohio State is ranked #1 by 16 of our 17 voters while Wisconsin has one #1 vote, 14 #2 votes, and two #3 votes. I read that to mean that we are pretty strongly convinced that tOSU is better than Wisconsin. That said, it could be true that the 14 of us who voted tOSU #1 and UW #2 all think that it is REALLY close in which case you are right, the averages do not reflect how close we collectively think the two teams are.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #27 on:** October 01, 2019, 03:39:04 PM »

But OSU/UW is the opposite. The fact that it's basically unanimous that OSU is #1 and UW is #2 might mean they're only "1 spot apart", or it might mean that there's a 3-spot gap between where OSU is and where UW is.

Your biggest gap is MSU->NU. Given the troubles with Michigan State's offense, I'm not sure that I'd personally rate the gap between the schools to be larger than the gap between OSU and UW.

When we do the tiers in basketball we somewhat account for this, because some years we end up with an "empty" tier showing gaps. Many of the people doing power rankings deliberately insert lines between groups of teams that are their "tiers", where maybe the difference between #5 and #8 is small, but the difference between #8 and #9 is very large.

I do agree with your point that using a collected average helps SOMEWHAT, but I still think it's a bridge too far for this analysis. ESPECIALLY if you're trying to pick and choose east vs west. We may collectively feel that UM and MSU are close, and MN and NU are slightly worse but close to each other, and that will artificially inflate the difference between average between the two groupings. If you're comparing two teams that are next to each other in the rankings it can show where the tier groupings lie, but then when you're arbitrarily looking at one team in the east vs the next available team in the west, you're making logical jumps outside of what this power ranking is supposed to be showing.

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Topic: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5

847badgerfan

Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5

Big Beef Tacosupreme

Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5

SFBadger96

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medinabuckeye1

Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5

MaximumSam

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MrNubbz

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medinabuckeye1

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medinabuckeye1

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ELA

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LittlePig

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medinabuckeye1

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betarhoalphadelta

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medinabuckeye1

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betarhoalphadelta

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