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updated rankings...

1) Ohio State 
2) Michigan
3) Michigan State 
4) Penn State 
5) Purdue 
6) Wisconsin 
7) Minnesota
8) Maryland
9) Iowa 
10) Rutgers 
11) Illinois 
12) Northwestern 
13) Indiana 
14) Nebraska


flipped Sparty and Penn State because: James Franklin. I'm half expecting Penn State to lose a close one score game on the road to Auburn....because: James Franklin. 

So you do realize that ATS is meaninglessness right?  At least it should be in someone’s power rankings.

It is nothing more than a random number generated for gambling, intended to bring in money from both sides of a bet on a football game.

in fact the theory is if done correctly most teams should end up right around .500 against the spread. For example the two national championship participants last season, Georgia and Alabama were 8-5 and 7-6 against the spread.

I do, and I'm not even a gambler. I'm just using it here as a rough (and I DO realize that it is ROUGH) proxy for overperformance/underperformance.

I think it generally works that way. For example, Bama was favored over Texas by three TD's and won by one point on a FG as time expired. That WAS an underperformance by Bama and an overperformance by Texas and accordingly:

• Bama dropped a spot in the National rankings despite the win, and
• Texas jumped up into the rankings despite the loss.

Similarly, Ohio State was favored over Notre Dame by about two TD's and won by marginally less than that and dropped.


Understand that my power rankings each week are based on the previous week's rankings plus a bump up for teams that perform above my expectations or a bump down for teams that perform below my expectations.

So far this year, Ohio State has performed slightly below my expectations. As we discussed previously, I thought that Notre Dame was an insanely overrated team so I didn't really look at that win as a top-5 win, I looked at it as a decent win, not great. I honestly don't know much about Arkansas State but they were abysmal last year so I expected a VERY easy win, easier than what we saw.

I do, and I'm not even a gambler. I'm just using it here as a rough (and I DO realize that it is ROUGH) proxy for overperformance/underperformance.

I think it generally works that way. For example, Bama was favored over Texas by three TD's and won by one point on a FG as time expired. That WAS an underperformance by Bama and an overperformance by Texas and accordingly:

• Bama dropped a spot in the National rankings despite the win, and
• Texas jumped up into the rankings despite the loss.

Similarly, Ohio State was favored over Notre Dame by about two TD's and won by marginally less than that and dropped.


Understand that my power rankings each week are based on the previous week's rankings plus a bump up for teams that perform above my expectations or a bump down for teams that perform below my expectations.

So far this year, Ohio State has performed slightly below my expectations. As we discussed previously, I thought that Notre Dame was an insanely overrated team so I didn't really look at that win as a top-5 win, I looked at it as a decent win, not great. I honestly don't know much about Arkansas State but they were abysmal last year so I expected a VERY easy win, easier than what we saw.

They did win easily against Arkansas St. and that’s a perfect sample of why the pointspread is total garbage.
The only two players that had any success for Arkansas State were the quarterback, who success was very minor, but was a multiyear starter at Florida State. And they had one receiver who made some nice pllays-who was 1000 yard receiver last year at Oregon State. That’s a team is loaded with division one transfers and Ohio State wiped the floor with them. 

They did win easily against Arkansas St. and that’s a perfect sample of why the pointspread is total garbage.
The only two players that had any success for Arkansas State were the quarterback, who success was very minor, but was a multiyear starter at Florida State. And they had one receiver who made some nice pllays-who was 1000 yard receiver last year at Oregon State. That’s a team is loaded with division one transfers and Ohio State wiped the floor with them. 

And to be fair it is ALWAYS difficult to evaluate the scale of a beat down of an obviously very inferior opponent which is why I have no idea what to think of the Wolverines. They are a lot like Minnesota. The Wolverines are 2-0 against two teams that are a combined 0-5 and this week's opponent is 1-2 and the one win came against an FCS team that remains winless. Thus, there is a not unlikely possibility that Michigan will move to 3-0 this weekend against teams that are a combined 0-10 against FBS opponents. 

I don't mean that to pick on Michigan and I'm not saying that they suck, I'm merely saying that we really don't know and I think nearly all of us can agree on that. 

Although I agree these point spreads that are over 30 are kind of pointless to worry about, that game did remain somewhat competitive into the early 3rd quarter.  Once the score was 38-9, it doesn't really matter after that if they cover the spread or not.  The remainder of the game falls into the garbage time slot, which is something that SP+ tracks (or rather doesn't track) very well.  But it was 24-9 at halftime, and I think you can definitely argue that it was disappointing that the game was still in question at that point.

I could not disagree more. It wasn’t disappointing at all.  Ohio State was up 14 to nothing within minutes but had their punt return touchdown called back by some obscure penalty about leaping over the blocking wedge or something like that?  Basically, they never let their opponents even sniff the end zone. The game was never in question. People forget football games are 60 minutes not 1/4 or 1/2. This holier than thou pointspread is based on 60 minutes.

it’s funny how people overreact when a team favored by 30 is only up by 15 at halftime. 

I consider 15 points at halftime to still be in doubt.  I know the Buckeyes came back from 21-7 at halftime vs. Wisconsin a few years ago.

Sure if it’s two top-notch teams are two equally matched teams, I would agree. But when one team can’t seem to stop the other team and that same team can’t move the ball into the end zone it’s pretty apparent that the results are not going to change

It's always going to be close early though, because the teams start out tied and you can only score 7 at a time.