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Topic: B1G Power Rankings, week 2

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 2
« Reply #28 on: September 15, 2021, 03:22:04 PM »
I added in @ELA 's vote.  Maryland and Indiana are now ahead of Rutgers in both the raw vote and after removing the high and low and Maryland is now ahead of Indiana in both rather than tied in the second list.  

Updated rankings:

  • Iowa
  • Penn State
  • Ohio State
  • Wisconsin
  • Michigan
  • Maryland (were tied for 7/8)
  • Indiana (were tied for 7/8)
  • Rutgers (were sixth)
  • Michigan State
  • Minnesota
  • Purdue
  • Northwestern
  • Nebraska
  • Illinois

Note that Maryland (7.86), Indiana (7.93), Rutgers (8.14), and Michigan State (8.29) are all extremely close for 6th through 9th.  


medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 2
« Reply #29 on: September 15, 2021, 03:44:39 PM »
It is fair to level  criticism against Iowa's offense; it is paltry; the O-Line hasn't looked good, and the QB is immobile. But, Iowa this season played two ranked teams with legit defenses, and defeated both; the last two games Ohio St played against ranked teams, it lost. 
I'm DEFINITELY not saying that Ohio State doesn't have issues, they do.  That said, this statement treats "ranked teams"  as fungible equivalents and they aren't.  The two "ranked teams" that Iowa played were Indiana and Iowa State.  Indiana is now unranked and ISU is now #14.  The last two ranked teams that Ohio State played are #1 Bama and #4 Oregon.  Granted, some of that difference is because tOSU lost and Iowa won but not all of it.  For one thing I'm not sure that any team is comparable to Bama.  

LittlePig

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 2
« Reply #30 on: September 15, 2021, 04:37:56 PM »
Its tempting to push back at Medina's  lack of confidence in Indiana,  but that's what's so fun about weekly power rankings.  All we have to do is wait a couple of weeks to see how Indiana does against Cincinnati and PSU and we will find out soon enough if Indiana was overrated or not to start the season.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 2
« Reply #31 on: September 15, 2021, 05:09:02 PM »
Its tempting to push back at Medina's  lack of confidence in Indiana,  but that's what's so fun about weekly power rankings.  All we have to do is wait a couple of weeks to see how Indiana does against Cincinnati and PSU and we will find out soon enough if Indiana was overrated or not to start the season.
That is so true.  

It is entirely possible that Iowa's wins over IU and ISU were phenomenal accomplishments against teams that will win the B12 and B1G-E and that tOSU's competitive win over MN and loss to ORE were indictments because they came against B1G-W and PAC bottom-feeders.  OTOH, the opposite is also possible.  

Schedules coming up:
Indiana:
  • vs Cincy on 9/18
  • @ WKU on 9/25
  • @ PSU on 10/2
  • vs MSU on 10/16
  • vs tOSU on 10/23
Iowa State:
  • @ UNLV on 9/18
  • @ Baylor on 9/25
  • vs KU on 10/2
  • @ KSU on 10/16
  • vs OkSU on 10/23
  • @ WVU on 10/30
Minnesota:
  • @ Colorado on 9/18
  • vs BGSU on 9/25
  • @ PU on 10/2
  • vs UNL on 10/16
  • vs UMD on 10/23
  • @ NU on 10/30
Oregon:
  • vs Stony Brook on 9/18
  • vs Zona on 9/25
  • @ Stan on 10/2
  • vs Cal on 10/15
  • @ UCLA on 10/23
  • vs Colorado on 10/30

Of course, in addition to that we'll have a lot more relevant results for Iowa, PSU, tOSU, etc as well.  


LittlePig

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 2
« Reply #32 on: September 15, 2021, 05:36:26 PM »
Yes, Iowa and PSU have some tough games coming up in October with some potential trap games in-between

Iowa schedule
@MD Friday Oct 1
VS PSU Oct 9
VS Pur Oct 16
@Wisc Oct 30

Although Iowa probably has better odds to beat MD and Purdue than it does to beat PSU and Wiscy,  Iowa has a history of losing to or struggling agsinst both MD and Purdue much more than you would expect.  Plus Kirk Ferentz always seems to lose to 1 team he shouldn't, then beat 1 team he shouldn't.  So I would not be surprised if Iowa goes 2-2 against those 4 but the 2 losses may not be against the teams you think ahead of time.

PSU schedule
VS Indiana Oct 2
@Iowa Oct 9
VS. ILL Oct 23
@OSU Oct 30

Thats a tough October but I see they get a bye in the middle, so that makes it easier.  Of course if it turns out that Indiana and Iowa are overrated, then actually their October will be much easier.  Still, PSU can not get caught looking ahead to OSU when playing ILL the week before.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2021, 06:01:32 PM by LittlePig »

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 2
« Reply #33 on: September 15, 2021, 06:06:59 PM »
Indiana was clearly overrated to start the season. 

They had a B1G record of 6-1 last year, but frankly that was caused by having an extremely positive number in various high-correlation stats, most notably TO margin and INTs. But I showed in some thread that IU's INT numbers were more than double their performance than they were in any other year of the Tom Allen era, suggesting that it was luck rather than scheme. 

I think Tom Allen is a good coach. I think IU is a middling B1G team that unfortunately will suffer in their record playing in the B1G-E, but would be >.500 in the B1G-W. 

But they don't have the talent to be anything better than middling in the conference, in a power ranking. 

Hawkinole

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 2
« Reply #34 on: September 16, 2021, 12:42:21 AM »
Indiana was clearly overrated to start the season.

They had a B1G record of 6-1 last year, but frankly that was caused by having an extremely positive number in various high-correlation stats, most notably TO margin and INTs. But I showed in some thread that IU's INT numbers were more than double their performance than they were in any other year of the Tom Allen era, suggesting that it was luck rather than scheme.

I think Tom Allen is a good coach. I think IU is a middling B1G team that unfortunately will suffer in their record playing in the B1G-E, but would be >.500 in the B1G-W.

But they don't have the talent to be anything better than middling in the conference, in a power ranking.
Iowa traditionally has been a middling Big Ten team, and it has served Iowa fairly well the past 41-years, because from time-to-time, Iowa is a little north of middling. Indiana traditionally is the losingest Big Ten team. It appears they are building a program.
Perhaps I am speaking out of school, but early indications are that the Eastern Division top to bottom is exceptional. If this were like the Premiere League, and Alabama was promoted to the Big Ten, and tried running the Eastern Division gauntlet, I am thinking there would be at least one loss. Ohio State, with a highly visible weakness, will have difficulty making it to the playoff.  I don't think Oregon will be Ohio State's only loss. It is difficult but not impossible to be a two-loss playoff team That said, if a team competing for the playoff were going to lose a game, they want that loss to occur in Week 2; not during Michigan week.

Temp430

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 2
« Reply #35 on: September 16, 2021, 12:31:08 PM »
I added in @ELA 's vote.  Maryland and Indiana are now ahead of Rutgers in both the raw vote and after removing the high and low and Maryland is now ahead of Indiana in both rather than tied in the second list. 

Updated rankings:

  • Iowa
  • Penn State
  • Ohio State
  • Wisconsin
  • Michigan
  • Maryland (were tied for 7/8)
  • Indiana (were tied for 7/8)
  • Rutgers (were sixth)
  • Michigan State
  • Minnesota
  • Purdue
  • Northwestern
  • Nebraska
  • Illinois

Note that Maryland (7.86), Indiana (7.93), Rutgers (8.14), and Michigan State (8.29) are all extremely close for 6th through 9th. 



Take off your beer googles.  In the Big Ten it's still Ohio State and everyone else.
A decade of Victory over Penn State.

All in since 1969

LittlePig

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 2
« Reply #36 on: September 16, 2021, 12:31:23 PM »
Indiana was clearly overrated to start the season.

They had a B1G record of 6-1 last year, but frankly that was caused by having an extremely positive number in various high-correlation stats, most notably TO margin and INTs. But I showed in some thread that IU's INT numbers were more than double their performance than they were in any other year of the Tom Allen era, suggesting that it was luck rather than scheme.

I think Tom Allen is a good coach. I think IU is a middling B1G team that unfortunately will suffer in their record playing in the B1G-E, but would be >.500 in the B1G-W.

But they don't have the talent to be anything better than middling in the conference, in a power ranking.

I will concede that you did a much more detailed analysis than I ever will on this subject,  but if you look at  Indiana's scores from 2020 it just doesn't jive with your conclusion.

Vs PSU 36-35 (OT)
@ Rut 37-21
Vs Mich 38-21
@MSU 24-0
@OSU 35-42
MD 27-11
@Wisc 14-6

That's 4 victories by at least 16 points and a solid 8 point victory @Wisc.  The only victory you might call a fluke is the PSU victory in OT. 

I think by every important measure Indiana was a good team last year in 2020, and with the number of returning starters in 2021, it makes perfect sense to me why Indiana was ranked at the start of this season.

With that said, indiana did lose its bowl game and it did lose its first game in 2021 34-6,  so I get why the doubters have come out.  But we will see soon for sure, they play Cincinatti in 2 days.  If they get blown out by Cincy the same way they lost to Iowa, I will concede that they were overrated THIS year.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 2
« Reply #37 on: September 16, 2021, 06:12:37 PM »
Perhaps I am speaking out of school, but early indications are that the Eastern Division top to bottom is exceptional. If this were like the Premiere League, and Alabama was promoted to the Big Ten, and tried running the Eastern Division gauntlet, I am thinking there would be at least one loss. 
We could be wrong of course, but right now the B1G-E teams in these power rankings are ranked:
  • #2 PSU
  • #3 tOSU
  • #5 M
  • #6 UMD
  • #7 IU
  • #8 RU
  • #9 MSU
In the current rankings the bottom five teams are all in the B1G-W.  

If that is anywhere close to correct the major difficulty for any B1G-E team, no matter how good, is that there simply aren't any easy gimmie games.  My thoughts:
  • PSU looks very solid.  
  • tOSU has elite talent so in any given week they could show up and play like a CFP team.  
  • M looks very solid.  
  • UMD looks solid.  
  • IU was pretty good last year and returned a bunch of guys so maybe?  
  • RU has looked reasonably solid so far.  
  • MSU has looked solid so far.  
No freebies, you have to show up ready for a fight every week.  

Ohio State, with a highly visible weakness, will have difficulty making it to the playoff.  I don't think Oregon will be Ohio State's only loss. It is difficult but not impossible to be a two-loss playoff team That said, if a team competing for the playoff were going to lose a game, they want that loss to occur in Week 2; not during Michigan week.
If Ohio State is going to be a 2-loss team, what would be the best second loss for their CFP chances?  

Ordinarily I would say a non-divisional conference game but there is a problem.  Ohio State's B1G-W opponents are:
  • #10 in our rankings MN whom the Buckeyes already beat
  • #11 in our rankings PU
  • #13 in our rankings UNL
The problem is that at least as it appears now any of those would be an embarrassing loss for a CFP contender.  

I think that the only way a 2-loss team is going to make it is if they make and win their CG.  That makes losing to any B1G-E contender problematic because such a loss would be severely detrimental to tOSU's CG chances due to tiebreakers.  

I actually think the answer to this riddle might be Michigan but that is predicated on a number of factors:
  • Of the likely B1G-E contenders it appears that Michigan has the toughest schedule with road trips to #2 PSU and #4 UW.  
  • Assuming Michigan loses those two and tOSU loses only once more, to Michigan, the Buckeyes would finish 8-1 in conference while Michigan finished 7-2.  Everybody else in the B1G-E would have at least one loss (to tOSU) and tOSU would own the tiebreakers over all of them so that would get the Buckeyes to the B1GCG.  
  • It appears likely that the B1G-W will produce a highly ranked B1GCG team because after Iowa and Wisconsin there appears to be a substantial drop-off.  Thus it is likely that the UW/IA winner will be 10-2 or better and probably ranked in the top-10 or so.  
If the Buckeyes finished 11-2 they'd have respectable losses to quality teams (Oregon and Michigan) and multiple quality wins:
  • B1G-W Champion (either Iowa or Wisconsin).  
  • Penn State.  
  • At least one other B1G-E team would likely finish 9-3 or better and ranked.  


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 2
« Reply #38 on: September 16, 2021, 06:47:43 PM »
I will concede that you did a much more detailed analysis than I ever will on this subject,  but if you look at  Indiana's scores from 2020 it just doesn't jive with your conclusion.

Vs PSU 36-35 (OT)
@ Rut 37-21
Vs Mich 38-21
@MSU 24-0
@OSU 35-42
MD 27-11
@Wisc 14-6

That's 4 victories by at least 16 points and a solid 8 point victory @Wisc.  The only victory you might call a fluke is the PSU victory in OT. 

I think by every important measure Indiana was a good team last year in 2020, and with the number of returning starters in 2021, it makes perfect sense to me why Indiana was ranked at the start of this season.

With that said, indiana did lose its bowl game and it did lose its first game in 2021 34-6,  so I get why the doubters have come out.  But we will see soon for sure, they play Cincinatti in 2 days.  If they get blown out by Cincy the same way they lost to Iowa, I will concede that they were overrated THIS year.

The reason I did the analysis I did was specifically because of that statement that you make that I've bolded.

If you're looking at wins and losses, and score differentials, they look like a pretty good team. 

And if that's what you consider to be the "important measure", and there's a VERY strong argument that it should be given that no measurement carries more weight than a W at the end of the game, and a lot more Ws than Ls at the end of the season, I could agree.

But that's why I posted this:

Indiana in 2020...


  • Yards per play: 5.05 / Opponent yards per play: 5.52
  • First downs: 162 / Opponent first downs: 161
  • Penalties: 34 (358 yards) / Opponent penalties: 60 (566 yards)
  • Indiana turnover margin: 8 (one per game in the shortened season)
  • Fourth down conversion: 53.33% (8 of 15) / Opponent: 30.77% (4 of 13)
  • Red Zone conversion: 82.86% (29 of 35) / Opponent: 64% (16 of 25)
  • FG%: 90.9% (10 of 11) / Opponent: 41.7% (5 of 12)

Statistically, Indiana wasn't a particularly amazing team.

They did a few things well. They got a lot of interceptions (17) while not throwing many (5), which gave them an excellent turnover margin (despite being -4 in fumbles lost relative to opponent). They got a very high 4th down conversion rate. They held their opponents to surprisingly low red zone percentage,

and a surprisingly low FG percentage. And of course there's a significant difference in penalties.

I'd argue, however, that many of those stats--which were probably the difference between a 6-2 and 4-4 or 3-5 record--are not sustainable year over year.

Fool's gold, IMHO.

Now, those are not all the relevant statistics, only the ones I saw that really stood out. However I picked them because they somewhat stand out, and because a lot of those are highly correlated to W/L but may or may not be sustainable season to season. 

  • Yards per play and opponent yards per play show a team that should be even to slightly behind their opponents, and do not correlate with the final scores of those games and a 6-1 record in conference. 
  • The penalty differential could indicate a well-coached, highly-disciplined football team. Or it could be luck. 
  • The turnover margin could be caused by defensive scheme, but as I pointed out, particularly with INTs it doesn't correlate with any past season for IU with Tom Allen as coach, so I don't see a reason that it is sustainable. I also pointed out in a follow-up comment that their TO margin was positive in all 6 wins, and negative in their 2 losses (OSU + bowl). TO margin is one of the LARGEST correlations to winning.
  • 4th down conversion and red zone conversion differences could indicate a really good defensive scheme, but we have already seen that IU gave up higher YPP that it earned, and only gave up 1 fewer first down than they made themselves, a wash. Maybe it's a "bend but don't break" defense? I dunno--they broke a lot in past seasons...
  • Opponent FG percentage is just random chance. You can't expect opponents to kick at 41.7% in future seasons.


I maintain that in football, Success = Coaching + Talent + Luck

I think 2020 IU had good coaching, and a lot of luck, but I don't think they're anywhere near the talent level they need to be ranked. They still have good coaching, but it would be reasonable to think that 2021 won't have the same luck as 2020. 

In the 247 talent composite rankings, IU is currently 8th in the conference (6th in the B1G-E). The gap from 8th to 13th in the conference is 35 points. The gap from 8th to 6th in the conference is 40 points, to 4th/5th is about 80 points, to 2nd/3rd is about 160 points, and to OSU in 1st is 320 points. 

IU was ranked preseason because those doing the rankings are lazy. 

Hawkinole

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 2
« Reply #39 on: September 16, 2021, 11:29:22 PM »
Ordinarily I would say a non-divisional conference game but there is a problem.  Ohio State's B1G-W opponents are:
  • #10 in our rankings MN whom the Buckeyes already beat
  • #11 in our rankings PU
  • #13 in our rankings UNL
You have thought this through more than me. I had not considered the advantage of losing out-of-division, which seems virtually impossible for Ohio St, although Purdue does have some experience with Ohio St in this area.
The problem is if you lose "in-division" your divisional rival has to lose two games "in-division" in order for your team to overcome their team; which seems unlikely for a divisional champion. Iowa has a lot of experience in this realm getting beat down by Wisconsin.

ELA

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 2
« Reply #40 on: September 17, 2021, 03:08:49 PM »
Massey composite rankings (last week in parentheses)

  • Alabama (1)
  • Georgia (3)
  • IOWA (6)
  • Oklahoma (4)
  • Texas A&M (5)
  • PENN STATE (14)
  • Clemson (7)
  • Oregon (16)
  • OHIO STATE (2)
  • Cincinnati (9)
  • Florida (11)
  • Notre Dame (10)
  • UCLA (17)
  • Ole Miss (21)
  • WISCONSIN (19)
  • MICHIGAN (23)
  • Auburn (15)
  • Iowa State (13)
  • BYU (24)
  • Texas (8)
  • TCU (20)
  • North Carolina (-)
  • Virginia Tech (-)
  • Arkansas (-)
  • Central Florida (-)


  • 26. Indiana (29)
  • 39. Michigan State (39)
  • 41. Maryland (58)
  • 43. Purdue (61)
  • 47. Nebraska (69)
  • 48. Rutgers (67)
  • 51. Minnesota (37)
  • 63. Northwestern (60)
  • 93. Illinois (88)


Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 2
« Reply #41 on: September 17, 2021, 03:25:43 PM »
Can the Bearcats nose ahead of the Buckeyes this week? They are one spot behind, and they get to play a marquee game against Indiana while OSU toils away with Tulsa. 


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