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• 10-1 Ohio State and Michigan have clinched eligibility.  
• 8-3 Penn State has clinched eligibility.  
• 7-4 Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Iowa have clinched eligibility.  
• 6-5 Michigan State has clinched eligibility. 
• 5-6 Minnesota needs to beat Wisconsin.   
• 5-6 Purdue needs to beat Indiana.  
• 5-6 Indiana needs to beat Purdue.  
• 5-6 Maryland needs to beat Penn State.  
• 4-7 Illinois needs to beat Northwestern to be eligible for one of those 5-7 waivers.  
• 4-7 Nebraska needs to beat Iowa to be eligible for one of those 5-7 waivers.  
• 1-10 Rutgers maybe next year . . . or next decade or something.  

By team:

• 10-1 Michigan:  Win out and they are about 95% to the CFP.  Otherwise the Rose.  If they lose to Ohio State they drop to the Rose only if by some miracle the Buckeyes sneak into the CFP otherwise another NY6 bowl?  I do not think that a 10-2 Michigan that lost to Ohio State would get the Rose Bowl ahead of an 11-2 Ohio State that beat them and lost to Northwestern.  
• 10-1 Ohio State:  Win out and they get no worse than the Rose with a chance at the CFP.  
• 8-3 Penn State:  If they can beat Maryland to finish 9-3 they have a solid chance for a NY6 bowl.  
• 7-4 Northwestern:  The Illinois game is basically irrelevant.  If they win the B1GCG they get the Rose.  Otherwise, they fall WAY down the list.  
• 7-4 Wisconsin:  With a win they are probably the B1G's fourth bowl team behind M/tOSU/PSU.  It would be fifth, however, if NU upsets the tOSU/M winner.  With a loss, they fall a bunch.  
• 7-4 Iowa:  Same as Wisconsin only probably fifth/sixth behind UW with a win.  
• 5-6 Purdue/Indiana/Maryland:  With a win they are in, lose and hope for a 5-7 waiver.  
• 4-7 Illinois/Nebraska:  Win and hope for a waiver, lose and wait until next year.  

The whole five teams in six years sort of makes order irrelevant.  Only thing is if OSU or PSU miss the NY6, they'd have a leg up for the Citrus.  Otherwise, crap shoot based on who hasn't been where.  I feel pretty good MSU won't go Holiday back to back, but beyond that, who know.

I'm asking for your opinion not being argumentative, do you really think it would be possible for tOSU to miss NY6?  
On the one had the Buckeyes are about the most shaky looking 10-1 imaginable but at this point their potential finishes are:

• 10-2 with losses to Purdue and Michigan, or
• 11-2 with losses to Purdue and Northwestern and a win over 10-2 Michigan, or
• 12-1 and B1G Champions.  

Scenario #3 is easy it is either CFP or Rose.  

In Scenario #2 the Buckeyes would probably be ahead of Michigan in the Bowl pecking order, no?  Northwestern would go to the Rose at either 9-4 or 8-5 while Ohio State would be 11-2 with a H2H win over 10-2 Michigan.  

In Scenario #1 it is largely dependent on the M/NU B1GCG result.  If Michigan wins they probably go to the CFP and Ohio State to the Rose.  If Michigan loses then NU goes to the Rose and M gets a NY6 bowl (obviously ahead of Ohio State) but even here Ohio State would be the next best B1G team well ahead of PSU, no?  

This is one projection I saw:


https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/11/12/18087978/college-football-playoff-new-years-bowl-projections

The Florida-UCF thing would be amazing, but I think UCF would boat race them

There are 78 bowl spots total.

There are 74 teams that are sure to have at least 6 wins, including the Purdue/Indy winner.

There are 10 other 5 win teams that are favored.  Plus other 5 win teams that might pull upsets like Minnesota.  Estimates are there will be 81 bowl eligible teams once everybody is done.

It is almost certain that no 5-7 teams will be going to a bowl this year.