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Topic: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
« Reply #14 on: November 17, 2019, 10:04:30 AM »
I really don't know anymore.  #2-6 all seem too close to call at this point....with the home teams tending to get the edge in head to head matchups.  That's why I have Wisconsin at #2.  They have a pretty dominant win over Michigan.
This is also how I view 2-6, very close.

In games between them, the home team has won by one score with, I think, only two exceptions:
- Wisconsin blew out Michigan in Madison
- Penn State won a close game in Iowa City

Wisconsin has an offsetting bad loss to Illinois so I consider that to be roughly a wash, one good win and one bad loss.

For now I'm thinking:
Penn State first of this group due to the win in Iowa City and no offsetting bad losses.

Wisconsin second because that Michigan win was very impressive.

Minnesota third because they have matched the expectations for this group every week.

Michigan fourth because that loss to Wisconsin was bad.

Iowa last because they lost at home.

iahawk15

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
« Reply #15 on: November 17, 2019, 11:24:52 AM »
1) Ohio State (1)
2) Wisconsin (2)
3) Michigan (4)
4) Penn State (3)
5) Minnesota (5)
6) Iowa (6)
7) Indiana (7)
8) Illinois (8)
9) Purdue (10)
10) Michigan State (9)
11) Nebraska (11)
12) Maryland (12)
13) Northwestern (13)
14) Rutgers (14)



MichiFan87

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
« Reply #16 on: November 17, 2019, 11:37:47 AM »
As others have mentioned, I can rank 2-6 almost any way within reason.

1. Ohio State - Not sure they'll even be challenged next week
2. Penn State - Only this high be default
3. Michigan - Dominant win, but the trip to Bloomington concerns me
4. Wisconsin - Not as dominant of late
5. Minnesota - Winning in Kinnick isn't easy
6. Iowa - They beat the Gophers but just barely and that's their best win
7. Indiana - They're the best of the rest
8. Illinois - Interested to see how they do against Iowa
9. Michigan State - It looks like they've almost given up at this point
10. Purdue - Still beat the teams below them
11. Nebraska - More competitive but another loss
12. Northwestern - Still terrible
13. Maryland - Still even worse
14. Rutgers - As always
“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing”
― Bo Schembechler

847badgerfan

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
« Reply #17 on: November 17, 2019, 11:42:26 AM »


8. Illinois - Interested to see how they do against Iowa

I am too. Iowa just played two meat grinder games and Illinois sat and watched this weekend.

The thing that makes it tough for Illinois is that the game is away, and we all know what Kinnick is. If it were in Champaign, I'd probably pick Illinois to win. At Iowa, probably not.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
« Reply #18 on: November 17, 2019, 05:51:32 PM »
1 Buckeyes
2 Nittany Lions
3 Badgers
4 Gophers
5 Wolverines
6 Hawkeyes
7 Fighting Illini
8 Hoosiers
9 Spartans
10 Boilermakers
11 Cornhuskers
12 Terrapins
13 Wildcats
14 Scarlet Knights
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

FearlessF

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
« Reply #19 on: November 17, 2019, 07:53:04 PM »
1. OSU
2. PSU
--
3. Minnesota
4. Wisconsin
5. Michigan
6. Iowa
7. Indiana
9. Illinois
10. MSU
10. Purdue
11. Nebraska
12. Maryland
----
13. Northwestern
14. Rutgers
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

NorthernOhioBuckeye

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
« Reply #20 on: November 18, 2019, 07:47:19 AM »
1. Ohio State - About the only thing surprising is that they did not cover the spread.
---

2. Penn State - Here by default

3. Wisconsin - When they get the running game going like that, they are tough to beat.
4. Minnesota - Still have everything in front of them. Just win out and they are in the B1G Championship Game
5. Michigan - Still not convinced they have the offense figure'd out. Benefited from playing a MSU team that appears to have quit. 
6. Iowa - Probably as good as in team in this group, but the breaks have gone against them.
---

7. Indiana - I thought about including them in the tier above, but on second thought I don't think they could compete in that group.
8. Illinois - Bye Week
9. Michigan State - It looks like they are just mailing it in now.
10. Nebraska - Put up a good fight but just got beat down.
11. Purdue - Bye Week
12. Northwestern - Covered the spread on the money. Favored by 39 and hit that number on the head.
13. Maryland - Bye Wee
14. Rutgers - Showed some fight late in the game.

I will echo the sentiments of the others here that 2-6 are all very close and it's hard to sort them. I'm going by who I think would win on a neutral field if played head to head with the others in the group.



SFBadger96

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
« Reply #21 on: November 18, 2019, 11:59:34 AM »
Easy:
1) Ohio State: until someone proves differently.

Hard:
2) Penn State: not without flaws.
3) Wisconsin: Michigan blowout vs. Illinois and uninspiring defense of late. Wait until game 12 to sort it out? Probably. Allowed too much against Nebraska.
4) Minnesota: Better than I expected against Iowa. Ceiling? Could still be #2. Will find out in two weeks.
5) Michigan: solid performances, good short term arrows, still blown out in Madison. Not a trivial game in Bloomington, then the big show in Ann Arbor. Good luck.
6) Iowa: this team is a nice, solid Kirk Ferentz team. The kind you don't want to play in Iowa City with your season on the line. Sorry, Ski-u-mah.

Interesting:
7) Indiana: held up a lot better than I thought against a good Penn State team.
8) Illinois: also has flattering short term arrows.
9) Michigan State: expected loss to a better team; doesn't move either way.
10) Purdue: Big chance to make some noise this weekend, and needs the win to make a bowl game. Good luck in Mad-town.

Bad:
11) Nebraska: congratulations on churning out some yards on the ground?
12) Northwestern: bad.
13) Maryland: worse.
14) Rutgers: Rutgers.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2019, 12:05:58 PM by SFBadger96 »

SFBadger96

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
« Reply #22 on: November 18, 2019, 12:28:54 PM »
So many different ways to look at 2-6.

Wisconsin is 2-0 against the group, with a blowout win, but with the worst loss of the group, and a loss to Ohio State (but is the only one that has played OSU to date). I don't hold the OSU game against the Badgers, particularly in Columbus, but I do hold the Illinois game against them.

Penn State is 2-1 against the others, with a one-score win at home against Michigan, and a one-score win on the road against Iowa, the latter likely the more impressive. (?) And a one-score loss on the road at Minnesota. Hard to know if they are that good, or just got the bounces.

Minnesota is 1-1 against the others, with a one-score win at home against Penn State, and a one-score loss on the road at Iowa. So Penn State did better against Iowa, in Iowa City, but lost head-to-head. I think that puts Penn State on the high side there, but just barely.

Michigan: this is the real conundrum for me. 1-2 against the group. Bad loss in Madison. No sugar coating it. And lost to Penn State on the road by one score. Happy Valley is a tough place to play. One-score win against Iowa at home. Good blowout win over Notre Dame, which isn't in this conversation, but it was still a good win.

Iowa: only team to play them all, and 1-3, which kind of has to put it at the bottom. Nothing wrong with the one-score losses in Madison and Ann Arbor, but losing at home to Penn State was tough. Good win at home against Minnesota, but I'm sure the Hawkeyes were happy they didn't have to play another five minutes.

The two best wins in this group are Penn State at Iowa, and Wisconsin in a romp over Michigan. Wisconsin has the worst loss, the rest are all basically washes (one score on the road).

Ohio State (maybe) is the big winner here: it's only had one decent game this season, and that was at home against Wisconsin, where it smacked the Badgers around--not unlike what the Badgers did at home against Michigan.

The last two weeks are put up/shut up time for the Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota (and Ohio State). The first two get their shots at Ohio State, and Michigan gets it at home. Michigan doesn't control its destiny, but with Harbaugh's wins against Michigan State and Notre Dame, can he make it a trifecta and slay the Buckeye beast to go 3-0 in rivalry games? That would leave a sweet taste in Ann Arbor for the off season.

Penn State has a free shot at the conference title and the CFP--all it needs to do is beat Ohio State in Columbus, before it plays a scrimmage against the State University of Doesn't Play Football. So buck up, boys. It's time to play.

What if the Big Ten West really is the better division, outside of Columbus? Iowa is finished playing good teams, but can still screw things up against Illinois and Nebraska.
Minnesota still has a shot at the CFP--just beat Wisconsin at home, and Ohio State (or PSU--with a neutral field...would be an interesting rematch). The Badgers will come hungry for the Axe, but let's be honest, they haven't been inspiring since owning the state of Michigan.

And Wisconsin...will lose a rematch with Ohio State, but I expect whomever plays in Indianapolis to lose to Ohio State. Winning in Minneapolis is going to require a lot of pressure on the gopher quarterback. The Wisconsin D is capable of it, but will have to return to its early season form.

Although I don't think the conference championship will be all that interesting, the last two weeks of the conference season are better than usual.
 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
« Reply #23 on: November 18, 2019, 12:58:10 PM »
Late at the season I start looking at comparative results more closely.  At this point each B1G team has played seven games so you can make a 1-7 ranking by looking at results against each team. Ie, against Ohio State:

  • MSU lost to the Buckeyes by 24
  • UW lost to the Buckeyes by 31
  • RU lost to the Buckeyes by 35
  • IU&UNL lost to the Buckeyes by 41
  • IU&UNL lost to the Buckeyes by 41
  • NU lost to the Buckeyes by 49
  • UMD lost to the Buckeyes by 59

I've compiled that list for each B1G team then taken an average for each.  To keep this totally objective I did not make any adjustments for games that were closer than the final score or anything like that.  The only thing I did was to break ties based on HFA (ie, beating a team by 7 on the road is better than beating a team by 7 at home).  Here are the averages for each team:
  • 1.79 Ohio State:  The Buckeyes were best against UW, IU, UNL, and NU.  They were second best against UMD, third best against MSU, and tied for 3/4 against RU.  
  • 2.14 Penn State:  The Lions were best against PU and UMD; second best against MN, M, and IA; third against IU, and fourth against MSU.  
  • 2.50 Minnesota:  The Gophers were best against PSU and IL, second best against UNL, third best against PU and UMD; tied for 3/4 against RU; and fourth best against Iowa.  
  • 2.71 Wisconsin:  The Badgers were best against the two Michigan schools; second best against tOSU; third best against Iowa and UNL; fourth best against IL; and fifth best against NU.  
  • 2.79 Michigan:  The Wolverines were best against Iowa and RU; second best against IL and MSU; tied for 3/4 against PSU; fourth best against UMD; and sixth best against UW.  
  • 3.29 Iowa
  • 4.14 Michigan State
  • 4.43 Indiana
  • 4.43 Illinois
  • 4.93 Nebraska
  • 5.29 Purdue
  • 5.57 Maryland
  • 5.71 Northwestern
  • 6.29 Rutgers:  The Scarlet Knights were worst against M, IA, IU, IL, and UMD; second worst against MN; and third best against tOSU.  


medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
« Reply #24 on: November 18, 2019, 01:28:36 PM »
  • Ohio State - 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1 - And now, the big games.   
  • Penn State - 2,2,2,2,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,4 - I said last week that I thought 2-6 were very close, that hasn't changed but PSU has a road win over Iowa. 
  • Wisconsin - 3,3,3,3,2,2,2,2,2,2,4,3 - I put UW second in the 2-6 group because their win over Michigan was impressive. 
  • Michigan - 4,4,4,4,4,4,5,5,4,4,2,2 - That beatdown in Madison feels like an outlier. 
  • Minnesota - 5,6,6,6,6,9,10,10,10,8,13,10 - No shame in a road loss within the group. 
  • Iowa - 6,5,5,5,5,5,4,4,5,6,5,6 - The win over Minnesota is nice but they still have a home loss to PSU. 
  • Illinois - 7,9,9,13,13,13,13,13,13,12,11,13 - Does anyone think they would lose to Nebraska if the two played again?   
  • Indiana - 9,8,8,10,10,11,11,11,11,13,12,12 - It is close between IU and ILL.
  • Michigan State - 8,7,7,7,7,6,6,6,7,7,7,9 - I moved the Spartans down this week because they got blown out at Michigan and IU did better against PSU than they did.   
  • Purdue - 10,10,11,9,9,12,12,12,12,11,10,5 - Bowl plans still on life support. 
  • Nebraska - 11,11,10,11,11,8,9,8,6,9,6,8 - Bowl plans on life support. 
  • Northwestern - 12,12,12,8,8,7,7,9,9,10,9,7 - OOC wins over UMASS are not impressive, even Rutgers has one. 
  • Maryland - 13,13,13,12,12,10,8,7,8,5,8,11 - What happened to this season? Haven't I asked that about this team in previous seasons as well?   
  • Rutgers - 14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14 - It tells you everything you need to know about Rutgers to consider that their game against Ohio State felt almost like a win because they "only" lost by 35. 


MaximumSam

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
« Reply #25 on: November 18, 2019, 01:43:16 PM »
SP+

1. OSU (1)
2. PSU (7)
3. Michigan (10)
4. Wisconsin (13)
5. Minnesota (16)
6. Indiana (20)
7. Iowa (23)
8. MSU (40)
9. Illinois (51)
10. Nebraska (55)
11. Purdue (61)
12. Maryland (80)
13. Northwestern (84)
14. Rutgers (110)

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
« Reply #26 on: November 18, 2019, 04:37:40 PM »
7. Indiana
9. Illinois
10. MSU
10. Purdue
I read this as:
  • 7 IU
  • 8 IL
  • 9 MSU
  • 10 PU


FearlessF

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
« Reply #27 on: November 18, 2019, 05:08:49 PM »
correct
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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