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Topic: B1G Power Rankings, week 11

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medinabuckeye1

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B1G Power Rankings, week 11
« on: November 13, 2021, 07:49:54 PM »
Link to last week's rankings
Link to last week's rankings. 

Votes through @FearlessF , 14 voters:

Drop the high and low:

Schedule/performance table:


GOTY progression:


  • Preseason:  #1 tOSU vs #2 UW not scheduled, maybe B1GCG
  • Week 1:  #1 tOSU vs #2 PSU 10/30 in Columbus
  • Week 2:  #1 Iowa vs #2 PSU 10/9 in Iowa City
  • Week 3:  #1 PSU vs #2 Iowa 10/9 in Iowa City
  • Week 4:  #1 PSU at #2 tOSU 10/30 in Columbus
  • Week 5:  #1 Iowa vs #2 tOSU not scheduled, maybe B1GCG
  • Week 6:  #1 Iowa vs #2 tOSU not scheduled, maybe B1GCG
  • Week 7:  #1 tOSU at #2 M 11/27 in Ann Arbor
  • Week 8:  #1 tOSU at #2 M 11/27 in Ann Arbor
  • Week 9:  #1 tOSU vs #2 MSU 11/20 in Columbus
  • Week 10:  #1 tOSU at #2 M 11/27 in Ann Arbor
  • Week 11:  #1 tOSU at #2 M 11/27 in Ann Arbor

COTY Progression:
  • Tucker with Locksley and Schiano chasing
  • Tucker with Schiano and Ferentz chasing
  • Tucker with Schciano and Ferentz chasing
  • Tucker all alone with Schiano and Locksley well behind
  • Tucker all alone with Schiano and Locksley well behind
  • Tucker all alone with Frost and Ferentz well behind
  • Tucker with an ENORMOUS lead, Brohm and Harbaugh well behind
  • Tucker with an ENORMOUS lead, Harbaugh and Bert well behind
  • Tucker with an ENORMOUS lead, Brohm and Harbaugh well behind
  • Tucker with a slightly less enormous lead than he has had, Brohm, Bert, and Harbaugh well behind.  
  • Tucker with a huge lead, Brohm, Bert, and Harbaugh well behind.  
« Last Edit: November 17, 2021, 10:57:52 AM by medinabuckeye1 »
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Hawkinole

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 11
« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2021, 09:08:26 PM »


Ohio State has improved from week-to-week-week. At this point Ohio State should be 2nd in the CFB Playoff Rankings.
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Temp430

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 11
« Reply #2 on: November 14, 2021, 06:53:33 AM »
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan State
3. Michigan 
4. Wisconsin 
5. Penn State
6. Iowa
7. Purdue
8. Nebraska
9. Minnesota 
10. Rutgers
11. Illinois
12. Maryland 
13. Indiana 
14. Northwestern 
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MaximumSam

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 11
« Reply #3 on: November 14, 2021, 07:26:23 AM »
1. Ohio State: Nothing to complain about when it comes to the offense. Which is good, because the defense was definitely below par. It is understandable that they would play pretty vanilla football when they went up by 28 early in the game, but they also never really showed the ability to get after the quarterback or cover anyone. But for a couple bonehead Purdue mistakes, we might be having a very different conversation.
2. Michigan: A very solid and fun road victory over a game PSU squad. No mystery at all about who Michigan is at this point.
3. Wisconsin: Yet another efficient performance from Mertz. They finish with Nebraska and Minny, two decent teams, and it will interesting to see if Wiscy can keep this level of play up on offense. If so, they are a real threat to win the B1G.
4. Michigan State: Defense still shaky, but the offense is still good. How good? Could be a real track meet against OSU.
5. Purdue: Defense got washed, which was a bit surprising given how solid they have been. The offense was good - O'Connell is the man, they have a bunch of weapons. No need to rotate quarterbacks.
6. Penn State: Man, imagine if instead of running the worst fake of all time, they lined up and scored a touchdown early in that Michigan game. 
7. Iowa: Yet another win where they don't get to 300 yards of offense. Impressive, really.
8. Illinois: I mean, I guess. Have to put them somewhere.
9. Minnesota: Such a weird team. Also difficult to place. But they lost to Iowa and Illinois, so here they go.
10. Nebraska: Can they actually win another game?
11. Rutgers: Hey, they whooped someone. That's worth something.
12. Maryland: The defense is terrible. The offense has some good things that have gotten lost in the sea.
13. Northwestern: Road kill this week.
14. Indiana: Geez, this team is a shambling zombie compared to last year's squad. 
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MrNubbz

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 11
« Reply #4 on: November 14, 2021, 08:36:35 AM »
I'm not going to start ranking them now,specially with MSU on deck
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LittlePig

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 11
« Reply #5 on: November 14, 2021, 08:42:25 AM »
I am torn.  I really want to rank Wisc #2 but how can I justify that when earlier Mich dominated Wisc h2h, and Mich also won @PSU while Wisc lost to PSU in Madison. Plus part of me just knows once I move Wisc to #2, they will end up in a 3-pt game with Neb.  But if I use h2h results as my deciding factor, how can I justify putting Mich over MSU?  And what in the world do I do with ILL?  Ugh. 

In the end I don't believe there is a big difference between #2 to #10 this year.  Luck and timing has played a big role this year,  but ultimately it matters who actually wins the game,  which is why I should put MSU above Neb,  even though the 2 teams needed OT to decide who is better.  But wait a minute,  maybe an OT win should be treated differently than a regulation win.  What if I treat an OT win or loss as a tie instead?  Now MSU is 5-1-1,  PSU is 3-3-1,  ILL is 2-4-1, Neb is 1-5-1.    This makes it easier in my mind to justify my rankings below.

1.  OSU
2.  Mich
3.  Wisc
4.  Purdue
5.  MSU
6.  Iowa
7.  PSU
8.  ILL
9.  Minn
10.  Neb
11.  MD
12.  Rut
13.  NW
14.  Ind 
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 11
« Reply #6 on: November 14, 2021, 02:21:33 PM »

  • Buckeyes 
  • Spartans 
  • Wolverines 
  • Badgers 
  • Nittany Lions 
  • Hawkeyes 
  • Boilermakers 
  • Fighting Illini 
  • Golden Gophers 
  • Cornhuskers 
  • Terrapins 
  • Scarlet Knights 
  • Wildcats 
  • Hoosiers 
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Benthere2

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 11
« Reply #7 on: November 14, 2021, 03:43:40 PM »
1.  OSU
2.  MSU
3.  Wisconsin
4.  Michigan
5.   Iowa
6.   Purdue
7.   PSU
8.   Minnesota
9.   Illinois
10.  Nebraska
11.  Rutgers
12.  Maryland
13.  Northwestern
14.  Indiana
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 11
« Reply #8 on: November 15, 2021, 11:22:48 AM »
Quote from: Hawkinole on November 13, 2021, 09:08:26 PM
Ohio State has improved from week-to-week-week. At this point Ohio State should be 2nd in the CFB Playoff Rankings.
I'm thinking this might be the week that the committee jumps tOSU over Oregon.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 11
« Reply #9 on: November 15, 2021, 11:58:20 AM »
This isn't my ranking, just for consideration.  

Ranking based on comparative scores against each B1G opponent:

  • 1.14 Ohio State
  • 2.43 Wisconsin
  • 2.86 Purdue
  • 2.93 Nebraska
  • 3.36 Penn State
  • 3.42 Minnesota
  • 3.57 Michigan
  • 4.29 Michigan State
  • 4.36 Illinois
  • 4.56 Iowa
  • 4.79 Rutgers
  • 5.79 Northwestern
  • 6.07 Indiana
  • 6.29 Maryland


Method:
Each B1G team has played seven league games.  Each result is compared to the other six results against that same opponent and ranked 1->7.  Then those rankings are averaged.  Example:
Ohio State:
  • The Buckeyes are #1 against Purdue as their 28 point win is bigger than #2 Wisconsin's 17 point win against PU.  
  • The Buckeyes are #1 against Penn State as their 9 point win is bigger than #2 Michigan's 4 point win.  
  • The Buckeyes are #1 against Minnesota as their 14 point win is bigger than #2 Illinois' 8 point win.  
  • The Buckeyes are #1 against Nebraska as their 9 point win is bigger than #2 Illinois' 8 point win.  
  • The Buckeyes are #1 against Maryland as their 49 point win is bigger than #2 Iowa's 37 point win.  
  • The Buckeyes are #2 against Rutgers as their 39 point win is smaller than #1 Wisconsin's 49 point win but bigger than #3 Michigan State's 18 point win.  
  • The Buckeyes are #1 against Indiana as their 47 point win is bigger than #2 Rutgers' 35 point win.  
  • The average of six #1's and one #2 is 1.14.  

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ELA

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 11
« Reply #10 on: November 15, 2021, 03:08:27 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 15, 2021, 11:22:48 AM
I'm thinking this might be the week that the committee jumps tOSU over Oregon. 
Eh, I don't think they will.  They don't have to, and it just opens a can of worms for them, even if they should.
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ELA

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 11
« Reply #11 on: November 15, 2021, 03:19:45 PM »
Last week in parenthesis
  • OHIO STATE (1) - didn't even feel like Purdue was playing that poorly, and then you look up and OSU is up 4 scores
  • MICHIGAN (2) - biggest win of Jim's tenure?
  • MICHIGAN STATE (3) - back to winning games by winning red zones
  • WISCONSIN (4) - the flip in Wisconsin's turnover margin has been pretty remarkable
  • PENN STATE (5) - looked like they had the W
  • PURDUE (6) - OSU plays like Purdue, just with a lot more talent, and that's usually not a good recipe
  • IOWA (7) - wasn't pretty, but it keeps their division title hopes alive
  • MINNESOTA (8) - outgained Iowa by 130 yards, and won the turnover battle...and still lost
  • NEBRASKA (9) - bye week
  • RUTGERS (12) - season finale against Maryland for a bowl bid, just like Big Jim planned it!
  • MARYLAND (10) - getting torched by Payton Thorne, with 3 offensive starters out, not so ideal
  • ILLINOIS (11) - bye week
  • NORTHWESTERN (14) - how do you lose by 28 and move up?
  • INDIANA (13) - when the team right behind you loses by 35 at home to Rutgers, and is -6 in turnovers

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 11
« Reply #12 on: November 16, 2021, 11:22:57 AM »
Quote from: LittlePig on November 14, 2021, 08:42:25 AM
I am torn.  I really want to rank Wisc #2 but how can I justify that when earlier Mich dominated Wisc h2h, and Mich also won @PSU while Wisc lost to PSU in Madison. Plus part of me just knows once I move Wisc to #2, they will end up in a 3-pt game with Neb.  
I'm conflicted over this as well because Wisconsin "feels like" the second best team in the league the last few weeks but that three-TD home loss to Michigan just makes that a hard sell.  I looked at the common opponents of the three realistic contenders for the #2 spot:
  • H2H:  MSU beat M by 4, M beat UW by 21
  • vs PU:  UW won by 17, MSU lost by 11
  • vs PSU:  M won by 4, UW lost by 6
  • vs UNL:  M won by 3, MSU won in OT
  • vs NU:  UW won by 28, M won by 26, MSU won by 17
  • vs RU:  UW won by 49, MSU won by 18, M won by 7
  • vs IU:  M won by 22, MSU won by 5

It is concerning to me that the best arguments in favor of moving UW up are games against horrible teams in NU and RU.  Maybe Wisconsin has actually gotten better of maybe they are just better at lighting up bad teams.  Last week my order was M>UW>MSU (with PSU between UW and MSU) and I think this week I'll keep that order.  

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 11
« Reply #13 on: November 16, 2021, 02:50:34 PM »

  • Ohio State - 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1 I do not think it is close. 
  • Michigan - 2,3,2,2,3,3,3,3,5,5,5  I have them ahead of UW mostly because they beat UW by three TD's but that said I wouldn't be very confident that they would beat UW on a neutral field now.
  • Wisconsin - 3,4,4,5,5,5,7,4,3,3,2  I've been saying for weeks that Wisconsin was better than their record.  They sure looked like it this week!  If they keep looking this good I'll move them up to at least #2 even if nobody ahead of them loses. 
  • Penn State - 4,5,6,3,4,4,2,2,2,2,3 Odd team.  They don't "feel like" a sub .500 team to me but they are now 3-4 in the league.  Their nine point loss to Ohio State ties Nebraska for the closest any B1G team has gotten to the Buckeyes and the Nittany Lions did it in the Horseshoe.  Their other three losses were by four points, by a FG, and in the NINTH OT.  Penn State is three plays from 9-1/6-1 but . . . They aren't 9-1/6-1, they are 6-4/3-4.  
  • Michigan State - 5,2,5,6,6,6,8,7,9,9,11 So now what?  On a neutral field I don't think they'd beat Penn State so I'm keeping them here.
  • Iowa - 6,6,3,4,2,2,4,5,4,4,4  Another odd team.  Iowa got outgained 409-277, lost the turnover battle 1-0, and gave up 23 first downs to 12 earned.  If you read that sentence about a random game then were asked to guess the final score you would probably guess that the team in question lost by about 45-10 but no, Iowa somehow overcame all of that to win 27-22.  Who knows?  
  • Purdue - 7,8,9,8,12,12,11,11,11,11,10  The Boilermakers should be favored the rest of the way (home games against 1-6/3-7 NU and 0-7/2-8 IU) so they have a good chance to finish a very respectable 6-3/8-4.  Purdue hasn't won eight games in a season since 2007 and they haven't won nine since 2003.  
  • Minnesota - 8,7,7,7,10,10,9,6,8,6,7  I missed their game against Iowa so this is a serious question:  How does a team put up 409 yards of offense with zero turnovers and only score 22 points?  
  • Maryland - 9,9,10,9,8,8,5,8,6,7,12  It seems like eons ago now but once upon a time Maryland was 4-0 and on the cusp of being ranked with a good looking win over WVU on their resume.  They were a popular upset pick for a Friday night home game against #5 Iowa.  In fact they held a 7-3 lead over #5 Iowa at the end of the first quarter.  Since then not much has gone right for the Terps.  Iowa exploded for 31 unanswered points in the second quarter and an overall run of 41 unanswered points before Maryland scored a meaningless TD late in the third quarter while down 44-7.  They had a week off to get things figured out then somehow looked even worse against Ohio State and their only win since September was a three point home win over an Indiana team that Rutgers just demolished in Bloomington.  
  • Nebraska - 10,10,11,10,7,7,12,12,14,14,9 I'm not sure what the Cornhuskers wanted to do on their week off but based on their season they probably almost accomplished it then came up just short.  
  • Illinois - 11,13,8,12,13,13,13,13,13,13,14  The Illini had the week off as well and got mathematically eliminated from B1GCG contention while they were off.  
  • Rutgers - 13,12,14,9,9,9,6,9,7,8,13  The dominant win over Indiana was a huge shot in the arm for Rutgers' bowl hopes.  They'll go bowling if they can either upset Penn State in Happy Valley or beat Maryland at home.  
  • Northwestern - 14,14,13,14,14,14,14,14,12,12,8 Just not their year.
  • Indiana - 12,11,12,11,11,11,10,10,10,10,6  For anyone keeping track, the Hoosiers lost to Cincinnati by two TD's.  In the B1G they have bigger losses to tOSU (47), RU (35), PSU (24), and M (22).

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