Last week I had Michigan #1, Ohio State #2, and Northwestern #3. The only things that I think need to be reconsidered after the CG are M/tOSU for #1 and NU/PSU for #3 so here goes:
For all spots, I view H2H as most important followed by the rest of the games in order of how close the opponent is to the teams in question. Thus, for the #1 spot, the H2H and common opponents, in order of importance, are:
- H2H, big advantage to tOSU
- vs #3 PSU, big advantage to M
- vs #4 NU, big advantage to tOSU
- vs #8 MSU, advantage tOSU
- vs #9 UNL, big advantage M
- vs #11 UMD, big advantage M
- vs #12 IU, advantage tOSU
- vs #14 RU, advantage tOSU
Then of course there are the non-common conference games:
- tOSU lost big to PU, M blew out UW, big advantage M
- tOSU beat MN by 16
Finally the OOC:
- I see this as roughly a wash.
I still think it is close, but I will move tOSU up to #1 partially based on recency bias.
Now for #3:
- No H2H
- vs #2 M, big advantage NU
- vs #4 IA, almost even, maybe a slight NU advantage
- vs #1 tOSU, big advantage PSU
- vs #6/7 UW, almost even slight NU advantage
- vs #8 MSU, big advantage NU
- vs #13 ILL, big advantage PSU
- vs #14 RU, big advantage PSU
When you add in the non-common opponents, NU's terrible OOC, and "eye test" I now think there is enough to move PSU up to the #3 spot.
Thus, my new rankings are:
- Ohio State
- Michigan
- Penn State
- Northwestern
- Purdue
- Wisconsin
- Iowa
- Nebraska
- Minnesota
- Michigan State
- Maryland
- Indiana
- Illinois
- Rutgers
