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Topic: B1G New Additions Offseason Thread

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CatsbyAZ

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B1G New Additions Offseason Thread
« on: January 16, 2024, 10:46:03 AM »
Official dumping ground for B1G’s incoming newbies as they ready for their first season in a new conference – UCLA, USC, Oregon, and Washington.

Washington has the most headlines going on as of late, but let’s start with UCLA:

UCLA finished 2023 with a strong showing in the LA Bowl thanks by and large because QB Ethan Garbers came off the sideline after halftime and rescued the Bruins from Boise State. UCLA finishes 8-5; Chip Kelly improves to 25-13 accounting for the past 3 seasons. (Overall W/L record since taking over UCLA in 2018: 35–34.)

With Garbers playing, UCLA was a ranked team this past year, starting 6-2. Without Garbers late in the season, UCLA went dead against Arizona (D knocked him out of game), Arizona State (L), and Cal (ugly L). With Garbers healthy all year UCLA would be at least 9-4 and nobody besides a few LA beat writers and irate fan sites are waving pitchforks at Chip Kelly.

I get the impression that UCLA is in the same place with Chip Kelly as (fill in the blank!) fans were with (fill in the blank!) and his perpetual 9-4 teams (hint, hint!). Bruins fans are tired of him even if he posts a winning season.

Good news next season for UCLA:


https://twitter.com/BruinReport/status/1736245286002180410

On another note, it’s well known Chip Kelly prefers working the portal over prep recruiting—

From CBS Sports: National Signing Day 2023: Winners and Losers of early signing period:

Losers: UCLA: "It's Year 7 for coach Chip Kelly recruiting at UCLA, but it's the first as his program enters the Big Ten next year. UCLA did not make a great impression on Wednesday, finishing at No. 17 in the conference and No. 60 overall. Kelly has rarely prioritized prep recruiting, instead choosing to use the portal, but the belief was he may ramp up efforts in preparation for the Big Ten move -- which clearly was not the case. The only class trailing UCLA in the Big Ten is Northwestern."

847badgerfan

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Re: B1G New Additions Offseason Thread
« Reply #1 on: January 16, 2024, 10:51:59 AM »
Good stuff. Thanks.
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LittlePig

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Re: B1G New Additions Offseason Thread
« Reply #2 on: January 16, 2024, 06:19:03 PM »
I have this theory that Washington is going to see a drop-off in 2024 similar to the one TCU saw in 2023 after TCU made the NCG in the 2022 season.

2022 TCU and 2023 Washington both had magical seasons where the offense was good and they won some close games and ultimately made it to the NCG. Of course it's not exactly the same, so we will see.

I also have a this theory that one reason so many Big Ten offenses struggled in 2023 is because Big Ten defenses were under-rated.  I have a hunch the 4 newcomers will struggle offensively after getting to play some real defenses in 2024.  Of course I have been wrong before., so we will see.

utee94

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Re: B1G New Additions Offseason Thread
« Reply #3 on: January 16, 2024, 06:22:31 PM »
I have this theory that Washington is going to see a drop-off in 2024 similar to the one TCU saw in 2023 after TCU made the NCG in the 2022 season.

2022 TCU and 2023 Washington both had magical seasons where the offense was good and they won some close games and ultimately made it to the NCG. Of course it's not exactly the same, so we will see.

I also have a this theory that one reason so many Big Ten offenses struggled in 2023 is because Big Ten defenses were under-rated.  I have a hunch the 4 newcomers will struggle offensively after getting to play some real defenses in 2024.  Of course I have been wrong before., so we will see.
I've read that both had a lot of graduating 5th year and 6th year COVID seniors in the 2-deep, and both lost a lot of that headed into the following year.  Can't confirm or deny, just what the internet told me.  

FearlessF

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Re: B1G New Additions Offseason Thread
« Reply #4 on: January 16, 2024, 07:54:58 PM »
just one of the reasons the Warshington coach should jump when he has the chance

sustaining the same level of success entering the B1G is nearly impossible w/o Penix and some of the other pieces 

I doubt Warshington makes the final 4 in the future.  With or without the coach
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CatsbyAZ

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Re: B1G New Additions Offseason Thread
« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2024, 10:50:11 AM »
I have this theory that Washington is going to see a drop-off in 2024 similar to the one TCU saw in 2023 after TCU made the NCG in the 2022 season.

Agree.

Usually I don’t look into 2-deep turnover until after the spring games, but right off the bat, Washington will be losing A LOT of production and Seniors going into the B1G next season.

QB Penix; NFL ready WRs Odunze, McMillan, and Jackson; 1k yard rusher Dillon Johnson; TE Westover, along with a few starters on the OL.

Defensively there’s six Seniors departing along with one or two transfers out.

The incoming coaches (Jedd Fisch and staff from Arizona) have a history of success finding key needs in the transfer portal.

The schedule does not feature a death row of opponents; it looks pretty standard for what USC, UCLA, and Oregon are also drawing. Tough road games @ Oregon and @ Penn State maybe Michigan will be there most difficult home game (on paper). I’m more interested in whether all the cross country travel will have an impact. Back and forth from Seattle to Piscataway, to Iowa City, to Bloomington. 

Over/Under 6.5 wins?



TyphonInc

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Re: B1G New Additions Offseason Thread
« Reply #6 on: January 17, 2024, 11:58:43 AM »
I'd put Washington at 7-5 (worse case,) to 9-3 next year.
L's - @Oregon @PSU, TTUN
Toss Up's - @Iowa, USC
W's - Weber, Eastern, WSU, NW, @Rutger, @Ind, UCLA

I would bet that 6.5 over, all day.

Abba

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Re: B1G New Additions Offseason Thread
« Reply #7 on: January 17, 2024, 12:35:49 PM »
Rutgers is going to be pretty solid next year.  I would not count them as an automatic win.

847badgerfan

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Re: B1G New Additions Offseason Thread
« Reply #8 on: January 17, 2024, 12:47:38 PM »
Yep, and it's almost a 3000 mile trip.
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FearlessF

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Re: B1G New Additions Offseason Thread
« Reply #9 on: January 17, 2024, 01:42:45 PM »
really wish Warshington and Oregon were not invited and caused the two LA schools to travel 4 times a season
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847badgerfan

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Re: B1G New Additions Offseason Thread
« Reply #10 on: January 17, 2024, 01:52:42 PM »
Seattle to Lincoln or Madison or IC or Minnie isn't all that much different than Seattle to LA.

Minus the shitty LA traffic, anyway.
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FearlessF

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Re: B1G New Additions Offseason Thread
« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2024, 02:17:10 PM »
well, they should all get regular trips to State College

PSU needs more permanent rivals
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847badgerfan

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Re: B1G New Additions Offseason Thread
« Reply #12 on: January 17, 2024, 02:18:15 PM »
well, they should all get regular trips to State College

PSU needs more permanent rivals
And regular trips to Miami and FSU, when they join.
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Entropy

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Re: B1G New Additions Offseason Thread
« Reply #13 on: January 17, 2024, 06:42:24 PM »
Agree.

Usually I don’t look into 2-deep turnover until after the spring games, but right off the bat, Washington will be losing A LOT of production and Seniors going into the B1G next season.

QB Penix; NFL ready WRs Odunze, McMillan, and Jackson; 1k yard rusher Dillon Johnson; TE Westover, along with a few starters on the OL.

Defensively there’s six Seniors departing along with one or two transfers out.

The incoming coaches (Jedd Fisch and staff from Arizona) have a history of success finding key needs in the transfer portal.

The schedule does not feature a death row of opponents; it looks pretty standard for what USC, UCLA, and Oregon are also drawing. Tough road games @ Oregon and @ Penn State maybe Michigan will be there most difficult home game (on paper). I’m more interested in whether all the cross country travel will have an impact. Back and forth from Seattle to Piscataway, to Iowa City, to Bloomington. 

Over/Under 6.5 wins?



If I recall correctly, TCU also had a very senior-led team when they made the NC.  Doesn't mean Wash is dead as a program, but they had the right scenario to win close games. 

 

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