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Topic: B1G-E race and B1G-W, week 11

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medinabuckeye1

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B1G-E race and B1G-W, week 11
« on: November 13, 2017, 12:16:44 PM »
B1G-W:
Wisconsin's win over Iowa clinched a berth in the B1GCG for the Badgers.  Northwestern can still win a share of the B1G-W but only if they win out (vMN, @ILL) and Wisconsin loses out (vM, @MN) and the Badgers would win that tie and go to Indianapolis anyway.  

B1G-E:
Rutgers (3-4), Maryland (2-5), and Indiana (1-6) are mathematically eliminated from because the Buckeyes can do no worse than 6-3.  Here is the situation for the rest of the teams:

6-1 Ohio State:
The Buckeyes are in better shape even than their record suggests.  A win over Illinois would eliminate the Spartans and Nittany Lions.  A win over Illinois and a Michigan loss at Wisconsin would clinch a B1GCG berth for the Buckeyes.  A win over Michigan would get the Buckeyes to Indianapolis even if the Buckeyes lost to Illinois.  

5-2 Michigan State:
The problem for the Spartans is that they would not win a 7-2 tie including the Buckeyes.  Thus, they can only get to Indianapolis if the Buckeyes lose out.  

5-2 Penn State:
Much like Michigan State, the problem for the Nittany Lions is that they would lose a 7-2 tie including the Buckeyes.  Thus, they can only get to Indianapolis if the Buckeyes lose out.  It is even worse for the Nittany Lions because they would also lose a 7-2 tie involving Michigan State so in addition to the Buckeyes losing out they also need MSU to lose again.  

5-2 Michigan:
The problem for the Wolverines is that even if they beat Wisconsin and Ohio State to finish 7-2 the only tie that they would win is a two-way tie with Ohio State ONLY.  Thus, they can only get to Indianapolis if they win out AND MSU and PSU lose at least once each.  

Explanation of why an Ohio State win over Illinois eliminates PSU and MSU:
  • If Ohio State beats Illinois they will move to 7-1.  Thus, they could do no worse than 7-2.  The Spartans and Nittany Lions each already have two losses so they could do no better than to tie the Buckeyes.  They also both lost to Ohio State so they would each lose a two-way tie with Ohio State and they would both lose a three-way tie with Ohio State.  
  • If Michigan wins out then the Wolverines would finish tied with Ohio State and either PSU or MSU or both or neither.  
  • Assuming that Michigan (@UW), MSU (vUMD), and PSU (vUNL) all win this weekend, the relevant games next weekend would be tOSU/M, MSU/RU, and PSU/UMD.  Here are all of the possibilities:
   
#OSUatMMSUatRUPSUatUMDtOSUMMSUPSUB1G-E ChampsB1GCGTiebreaker
1tOSUMSUPSU8-16-37-27-2tOSUtOSUn/a
2tOSUMSUUMD8-16-37-26-3tOSUtOSUn/a
3tOSURUPSU8-16-36-37-2tOSUtOSUn/a
4tOSURUUMD8-16-36-36-3tOSUtOSUn/a
5MMSUPSU7-27-27-27-2tOSU, M, MSU, PSUtOSUH2H2H2H then H2H
6MMSUUMD7-27-27-26-3tOSU, M, MSUtOSUDivisional then H2H
7MRUPSU7-27-26-37-2tOSU, M, PSUtOSUDivisional
8MRUUMD7-27-26-36-3tOSU, MMH2H

  • In scenarios #1-#4 the Buckeyes are outright Champions at 8-1.  
  • Scenario #5, 4-way tie between tOSU, M, MSU, PSU:  The first tiebreaker is H2H2H2H.  Ohio State and Michigan State are both 2-1 while Penn State and Michigan are both 1-2.  That eliminates the Nittany Lions and Wolverines.  After that the Buckeyes and Spartans revert to the two-team H2H and the Buckeyes win that.  
  • Scenario #6, 3-way tie between tOSU, M, and MSU:  In this case the H2H2H is tied up at 1-1 so we move to divisional record.  Divisional record eliminates the Wolverines because their "other" loss was to PSU while tOSU's and MSU's "other" losses were to non-divisional opponents (IA and NU).  After that the Buckeyes and Spartans revert to the two-team H2H and the Buckeyes win that.  
  • Scenario #7, 3-way tie between tOSU, M, and PSU:  In this case the H2H2H is tied up at 1-1 so we move to divisional record.  Ohio State wins on Divisional record because the other two teams' "other" loss was MSU while Ohio State's "other" loss was to non-divisional Iowa.  
  • Scenario #8, 2-way tie between Ohio State and Michigan:  The Wolverines win based on H2H.  
« Last Edit: November 13, 2017, 12:25:10 PM by medinabuckeye1 »

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G-E race and B1G-W, week 11
« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2017, 12:24:20 PM »
Anything can happen so what if Ohio State loses to Illinois?

Well, if the Buckeyes turn around and beat Michigan it doesn't matter.  The 7-2/9-3 Buckeyes would go to Indianapolis because they would finish ahead of Michigan and no worse than tied with MSU and PSU and the Buckeyes win any potential tie there.  

If the Buckeyes lose out:
  • Michigan State goes to Indianapolis if they win out.  
If the Buckeyes lose out and Michigan State loses at least one more game:
  • Penn State goes to Indianapolis if they win out.  
If the Buckeyes lose out and Michigan State loses at least one more game and Penn State loses at least one more game:
  • Michigan goes to Indianapolis if they win out.  
If the Buckeyes lose out and Michigan State loses at least one more game and Penn State loses at least one more game and Michigan loses to Wisconsin:
  • Ohio State wins any tie except a two-way tie with Michigan ONLY.  Thus, Ohio State goes to Indianapolis unless both MSU and PSU lose out.  
  • Michigan goes to Indianapolis if both MSU and PSU lose out.  

TresselownsUM

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Re: B1G-E race and B1G-W, week 11
« Reply #2 on: November 13, 2017, 12:50:55 PM »
so we're going to INDY!

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G-E race and B1G-W, week 11
« Reply #3 on: November 13, 2017, 01:08:15 PM »


It all hinges on the Illibuck. 


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TyphonInc

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Re: B1G-E race and B1G-W, week 11
« Reply #4 on: November 13, 2017, 09:52:23 PM »
so we're going to INDY!
Don't Jinx it.
Beat the Illini, and let the chips fall where they may.

LittlePig

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Re: B1G-E race and B1G-W, week 11
« Reply #5 on: November 14, 2017, 05:36:47 AM »
A thought crossed my mind that the Big Ten's worst nightmare as far as the playoffs are concerned, that Michigan suddenly gets hot and upsets Wisc and OSU, then a 3-loss OSU beats Wisc in the Big Ten CCG.  Then you are left with a 3-loss conference champion taking the acces bowl slot,  and a bunch of 2-loss teams left out of the access bowls altogether.

Oh well, lots of football to be played and no signs yet that Mich can pull off such a run.

847badgerfan

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Re: B1G-E race and B1G-W, week 11
« Reply #6 on: November 14, 2017, 09:16:25 AM »
A thought crossed my mind that the Big Ten's worst nightmare as far as the playoffs are concerned, that Michigan suddenly gets hot and upsets Wisc and OSU, then a 3-loss OSU beats Wisc in the Big Ten CCG.  Then you are left with a 3-loss conference champion taking the acces bowl slot,  and a bunch of 2-loss teams left out of the access bowls altogether.

Oh well, lots of football to be played and no signs yet that Mich can pull off such a run.
That scenario would certainly help the conference's bowl record. At least I would hope so.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

 

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