Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

It will boil down to:

Have they fixed their defense? Can they stop a well designed run game from multiple formations. Last year the answer was a definite hell no. Both Oregon and University of Michigan exposed them.

I'd add Utah which scored 45 points on our Buckeyes to the list of teams that "exposed" our defense but in that case it didn't matter because you can afford to give up 463 yards and 45 points when you gain 683 and score 48.  

Their scheme was eighth grade level and easy to figure out.

Ryan Day brought in Hafley/ and voila, a top 5 defense. But when he left- they gave it to someone who is a great coach- but as far from a schematic defense wiz as you could get.

I agree with this 100%.  

If Knowles can upgrade them in that area just 30% in his year 1, the Buckeyes will be a tough out for anyone.  They certainly have the talent, speed and depth on defense.

If not- we’ll it could be a long season.  You can outscore some teams in a track meet. But not Um, Wisconsin, Iowa, PSU, etc. 

I think this is overly pessimistic but it depends on how good the offense is.  I expect the offense which was already tops in the nation last year to be as good or likely better next year.  I thought last year that the notable weakness of the offense was that they didn't have a back you could count on to pick up a third-and-short.  I *THINK* that will be better and that would have helped immensely.  In the Oregon game:

• Our second-to-last drive of the first half ended on downs when we failed to pick up a 4th and 2.  
• Our second drive of the second half ended on downs when we failed to pick up a 4th and 2 inside the Oregon 10.  

We only lost by a TD.  Pick up one of those two and score on the drive and it goes to OT.  Pick up both and score on both drives and we win in regulation.  

Even in The Game where we ended up losing by 15 the two possession deficit only existed for about 13 minutes total.  First from 5:49 in the 3rd to 14:05 in the 4th when Michigan was up 28-13 then from 9:14 to 4:45 to go in the 4th when Michigan was up 35-20 and then for the last 2:17.  There again, we had problems with our inability to pick up short yardage:

• Our first points came on a FG after having 1st and Goal on the 5 and 2nd and Goal on the 3.  

Given the way the rest of the game played out it wouldn't have mattered but there is no guarantee that the rest of the game would have been the same if that first FG had been a TD.  Instead of trailing 14-13 at the half maybe we'd have been up 17-14.  Even if Michigan had still had their 14-0 third quarter we'd have only been down 11 instead of 15.  It might not have mattered but the extra pressure on Michigan combined with their long run of losses may have worn on their confidence and who knows.  

Your last line that you can't outscore UM, Wisconsin, Iowa, PSU, etc . . .  Well, I'd rather not have to.  Like you I certainly hope that our defense is better but that said we actually DID outscore PSU last year with a crappy defense (gave up 394 yards and 24 points but gained 466 and scored 33).  We didn't play Iowa or Wisconsin but Utah was probably better than them while Minnesota and Purdue were their equals and we managed to outscore all of them with a crappy defense.  Also one of the few games in which our defense did look good was Michigan State whom we held to 224 yards and a single TD.  Not that it mattered because our offense gained 655 and scored 56.  We'd have outscored them even on a bad day for our defense because the 56 is actually misleading.  Our team scored 49 in the first half so if MSU had been scoring as well we could have gotten more than 56 if we had needed to.  

Frankly I expect Michigan to take a step back (remember that they had a LOT more experience on the field last year than we did) so even with no improvement I think we'd have a better than even chance against the Wolverines.  The defense doesn't really need to be elite, just a couple of stops would be enough.  

Two final points:
First, I'm not saying that I want to have a crappy defense and beat everybody in track-meets.  Also, if we do have a crappy defense we are bound to lose a game or two based on having a bad day.  However, I am saying that within the league I think we'd have a better than even chance of winning it even without significant defensive improvement just because I think we actually can outscore enough teams to win it.  

Second, there is a big difference between winning the league title and winning the national title.  I conditionally disagreed with your take that you can't outscore teams like Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, PSU, etc.  However, if you replaced those teams with Bama, Georgia, Clemson I would agree wholeheartedly.  We aren't going to win a NC with a crappy defense.  Provided that our offense is on the level of last year's, we might be able to win an NC with a pretty good (rather than elite) defense but we will need a better defense than we had last year.  

OSU are the overwhelming favorites.

That offense will be absolutely ridiculous with CJ Stroud at QB, JSN at WR, and Henderson at RB. Those 3 guys will all be 1st rd picks when their names are called on draft day.

I think the only guy you could argue being better at QB than Stroud is Bryce Young. Personally, I think Stroud has more natural talent and physical ability- Young might be further ahead/more polished. But that's literally it. At WR? Can't. JSN is tops in the nation. Henderson in the convo for top 3 RB, easy. They are freaking loaded. As usual.

This is what I'm thinking, the offense should be phenomenal and that leaves this question:

Defense?  That is the question

But my thinking is that if @Mdot21 and I are right about the offense then the defense doesn't need to be elite or even great, they just need to be basically competent.  

I hope you're right.  I have no questions about his route running or hands.  Just waiting to see on his ability to turn on the jets and also tracking the ball, which is something Olave was incredible at.

What I've done here is to list all of the ranked B1G-E teams from Athlon's preseason top-25
Athlon's preseason top-25 and their ranked opponents:

• #2 Ohio State:  vs #6 M, @ #14 MSU, vs #19 UW vs @ #25 PSU, "next tier" IA
• #6 Michigan:  @ #2 tOSU, vs #14 MSU, vs #25 PSU, @ "next tier" IA
• #14 Michigan State:  vs #2 tOSU, @ #6 M, vs #19 UW, @ #25 PSU, vs "next tier" MN
• #25 Penn State:  vs #2 tOSU, @ #6 M, vs #14 MSU, @ #next tier" PU, vs "next tier" MN

Michigan State and Ohio State both have rough schedules.  They both play each of the other four ranked teams in the league plus one of the three "next tier" teams.  

As I mentioned in the other divisional race thread, I think that PSU's visit to West Lafayette on September 1 could be crucial to both division races but I'll focus on the B1G-E here.  

If Penn State wins then they should definitely go 3-0 against the B1G-W because their other two cross-overs are home games against the Gophers and Wildcats.  They also get both the Buckeyes and Spartans at home.  A win in West Lafayette, an upset of the Buckeyes, and a split with the Michigan schools would almost certainly get the Nittany Lions back to Indianapolis.  

If the Nittany Lions lose then they would likely need to win all eight of their other B1G games to get to Indy and that is a tall order.  

basically this. they just need the defense to be competent, because that offense is going to be lethal.

Last year during THE GAME, the Buckeyes had three possessions during which they were down by 15 points.  The final one was basically hopeless as they got the ball down 42-27 with just over two minutes remaining but look at the other two:

Trailing 28-13 the Buckeyes got the ball with just about 21 minutes to go.  They went 82 yards in 17 plays for a TD to get it back to a one-score game.  This drive included converting a 2nd and 15 which became a 3rd and 19.  

Trailing 35-20 the Buckeyes got the ball with just over 9 minutes to go.  They went 75 yards in 13 plays for a TD to get it back to a one-score game.  This drive included converting a 3rd and 14 and a 2nd and 20 that became a 3rd and 20.  

When they got the holding penalty on second down (after an incomplete pass on 1st down) that created the 2nd and 20 I looked at my brother and said "Ya know, they'll actually probably get this but it just doesn't matter because our defense can't stop them".  That turned out to be exactly correct.  They had an incomplete pass on 2nd and 20 then a 15 yard completion on 3rd and 20 and scored their final TD on 4th and 5.  After getting it back to a one-score game (35-27) they couldn't stop your team* and fell back into a 15 point hole without enough time left to do anything meaningful about it.  

So a couple observations about this:
First, in all my years of watching Ohio State, the 2021 team was BY FAR the one I was most confident in when facing difficult situations such as the aforementioned 2nd and 15, 3rd and 19, 3rd and 14, 2nd and 20, and 3rd and 20.  For most of my life under Cooper and Tressel situations like those were a good time to run to the bathroom or go refill your beverage because there was almost no chance of picking it up and we'd just run a play or two then punt.  Michigan's defense was a pretty stout unit last year and yet the Buckeyes converted all of those into TD's.  

Second, this may seem odd, but in spite of my having confidence in the 2021 tOSU offense to pick up an extremely difficult 2nd or 3rd and LONG situation, I had less confidence in them than most tOSU offenses in my lifetime to pick up a routine 3rd or 4th and short.  They just didn't have a good power game for those situations where you have to have a yard or two.  

I *THINK* that the power game should be improved and I *THINK* that the long game will suffer little-or-no dropoff because the Buckeyes are so ridiculously loaded at WR.  If I'm right about those two then the Buckeyes could probably go 9-0 in the B1G with last year's crappy defense because I think they could just outscore everybody in trackmeets.  


*This particular defensive performance by the Buckeyes was truly pathetic.  Michigan got the ball up by eight points with just under 5 minutes to play so everybody in the stadium knew that Michigan was going to run, run, and run some more.  It really was the smart play.  Even IF Ohio State had managed to stop them, by keeping the ball on the ground they'd have chewed up maximum clock and Ohio State still had to score a TD AND get a two point conversion then win in OT.  All Michigan had to do was play keep away and wait.  It didn't matter.  

Ohio State's first failing was that the kick coverage allowed a significant return that gave Michigan the ball at their own 37.  Then they handed the ball to Hassan Haskins five times:

• 15 yards on 1st and 10 from the 37
• 6 yards on 1st and 10 from the tOSU 48
• 11 yards on 2nd and 4 from the 42
• 27 yards on 1st and 10 from the 31
• 4 yards on 1st and Goal from the 4 for a game-sealing TD.