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Topic: B1G Divisional races headed into week 11

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LittlePig

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 11
« Reply #14 on: November 08, 2018, 06:55:02 AM »
Although Iowa has little chance to win the West, the Iowa-NW game this Saturday could be a big game for Bowl placement. 

 If Iowa can win out against NW, ILL an Neb, they could still end in the Holiday Bowl.  

NW and Purdue bowl games are harder to predict because of non-conference losses.  It would be interesting if NW wins out, then loses the CCG, what bowl they would get.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 11
« Reply #15 on: November 08, 2018, 10:31:06 AM »
Although Iowa has little chance to win the West, the Iowa-NW game this Saturday could be a big game for Bowl placement.

 If Iowa can win out against NW, ILL an Neb, they could still end in the Holiday Bowl.  

NW and Purdue bowl games are harder to predict because of non-conference losses.  It would be interesting if NW wins out, then loses the CCG, what bowl they would get.
It is unlikely but Northwestern could clinch this weekend.  If they win, that moves them to 6-1 and eliminates both Iowa and Illinois.  At that point it would be down to just Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Purdue.  The problem for the Badgers and Boilermakers is that they both already lost to Northwestern so the PU/UW winner would need to win out while Northwestern lost their last two games (@MN, vsIL) which is obviously very unlikely.  
Iowa's bowl position is complicated by the fact that the Hawkeyes look a LOT better by "eye test" than they do by record.  By record they are a three-loss unranked team.  The eye test tells a story much more favorable to the Hawkeyes.  The Wisconsin loss came before the Badgers were decimated by injuries and the Hawkeyes led until the last minute of the game.  It ended up an 11 point win for the Badgers but it was a very close game.  Iowa's other two losses were both on the road to quality opponents while their early win over Iowa State looks a lot better now that ISU has won four straight and five-of-six to move to 5-3 and become a factor in the B12 race.  
I agree with you about Northwestern.  Assuming they make it to the B1GCG (highly likely even if they lose this weekend) they will face one of the largest ever differences between bowl position based on winning or losing the CG.  They'll be no better than 8-4 heading to Indianapolis and they could be 7-5 or even 6-6 and still make it.  I'm pretty sure that P5 Champions are guaranteed a NY6 bowl so if they win they will get a major bowl but if they lose and finish 8-5, 7-6, or 6-7 they'll obviously head to a very minor bowl.  The issue for Northwestern is exacerbated by the fact that they are not exactly known for travelling well so it isn't like bowls are going to be clamoring for them anyway.  

Cincydawg

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 11
« Reply #16 on: November 08, 2018, 12:05:13 PM »
They remind me a bit of the 1979 UGA team that lost FOUR OOC games and was down to the last week to win the SEC and play in the Sugar Bowl at 8-4.  It's not often you lose 4 OOC games period, much less while almost winning your conference.

Next year's team did better.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 11
« Reply #17 on: November 08, 2018, 01:27:31 PM »
Obviously it's very unlikely at this point that Purdue has any chance at the CCG. 

It requires Purdue to win out--which is possible, but UW has been a thorn in our side since 2004 and I don't trust Purdue can beat them until we do. 

But even if Purdue wins out, it requires 2 losses by NU, and with MN and IL remaining after this weekend, I find that unlikely too.

But on a personal level, bowl placement is looking a lot more interesting than I thought it would coming into 2018. I figured that Purdue had zero chance for either the Rose or the Holiday bowl, the two that are local, and that I likely wouldn't make another trip to the Foster Farms even if Purdue was selected. 

So my wife and I made plans with another couple [husband is a Boilermaker, but not a big sports fan] to go to Paso Robles for NYE. I've already stated unequivocally that trip is cancelled if Purdue makes the Rose Bowl. But if Purdue makes the Holiday Bowl, it's a much tougher choice. A non-NY6 bowl is great, and it's driving distance, but is it enough to override 4 days of plans?

Don't know what to do here... I'm almost hoping that Purdue somehow misses the Holiday Bowl so I don't have to decide. 

LittlePig

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 11
« Reply #18 on: November 08, 2018, 01:45:54 PM »
I am guessing the bowls may work out like this.  Lots of assumptions here

CFP cotton bowl - Mich
Rose -OSU
Citrus - PSU
Outback - MSU
Holiday - Iowa
Gator - Purdue
Pinstripe - Wisc
Redbox - NW
Detroit - MD

Now if Wisc beats PSU, Wisc could go to Citrus instead
If MSU beats OSU, MSU could go to Rose instead
If Purdue beats Wisc,  Purdue could go to Holiday instead
If NW beats Iowa, NW could go to the Citrus instead
If NW wins the CCG, NW would go to the Rose instead

FearlessF

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 11
« Reply #19 on: November 08, 2018, 03:44:27 PM »
So my wife and I made plans with another couple [husband is a Boilermaker, but not a big sports fan] to go to Paso Robles for NYE. I've already stated unequivocally that trip is cancelled if Purdue makes the Rose Bowl. But if Purdue makes the Holiday Bowl, it's a much tougher choice. A non-NY6 bowl is great, and it's driving distance, but is it enough to override 4 days of plans?

Don't know what to do here... I'm almost hoping that Purdue somehow misses the Holiday Bowl so I don't have to decide.
Depends on the match up to a small degree, but you're going to get a good PAC 12 school.
You can get to Paso Robles any old time.  The Boilers don't often go to the Holiday Bowl.
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 11
« Reply #20 on: November 08, 2018, 03:50:15 PM »
Also depends on how hard you are hunting for an excuse to cancel those four days of plans. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 11
« Reply #21 on: November 08, 2018, 04:16:34 PM »
Depends on the match up to a small degree, but you're going to get a good PAC 12 school.
You can get to Paso Robles any old time.  The Boilers don't often go to the Holiday Bowl.

It is true, and we'll be going to Paso in March anyway [although not with that couple, unless we convince them to swap too].

Also depends on how hard you are hunting for an excuse to cancel those four days of plans.

I'm not... We asked the husband of that couple to specifically get ordained in order to preside over our wedding, so we enjoy plans with them ;-)

FearlessF

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 11
« Reply #22 on: November 08, 2018, 04:26:20 PM »
well, if you can convince them into some swapping...... that's an exciting 4 days!
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 11
« Reply #23 on: November 08, 2018, 05:07:26 PM »
well, if you can convince them into some swapping...... that's an exciting 4 days!

FearlessF

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 11
« Reply #24 on: November 08, 2018, 05:10:06 PM »
I'm not sure why my mind seems to gravitate to such levels, but it seems to do so w/o my intention
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 11
« Reply #25 on: November 11, 2018, 05:23:58 PM »
So much for that Rose Bowl talk... 

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 11
« Reply #26 on: November 11, 2018, 09:44:18 PM »
Looks like Northwestern has clinched. 

Even if they drop the last two, they own the H-H tiebreaker over anyone that can catch them. 

I bet they lose at least one. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

MarqHusker

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 11
« Reply #27 on: November 11, 2018, 10:37:23 PM »
Nice to see some fresh fish in Indy for the CCG.   Who knows, could be two newbies.   I'm planning to go with some friends that are NW alum.

 

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