CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 05, 2018, 03:56:46 PM
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B1G-E:
- 6-0 Michigan: Controls their own destiny.
- 5-1 Ohio State: Controls their own destiny.
- 4-2 Michigan State: Needs M to lose out or: Needs to win out and M to lose to either IU or RU and tOSU to beat M. That would create a three-way tie between M, MSU, and tOSU at 7-2 with each being 1-1 against the other two. Michigan would be eliminated on tiebreaker #2 Divisional Record because their other loss was in the Division. Then it would go to H2H between the Spartans and Buckeyes and in this scenario the Spartans would have a H2H win there.
- 3-3 Maryland: Has a theoretical mathematical chance to at least get to the third tiebreaker but it involves Michigan losing to Rutgers so yeah not happening.
- 3-3 Penn State: Mathematically eliminated because the best they could do is a tie with M at 6-3 and the Nittany Lions lost to every team that could possibly be included in that tie (M, tOSU, MSU).
- 1-5 Indiana: Mathematically eliminated.
- 0-6 Rutgers: Mathematically eliminated.
As a practical matter the B1G-E is between tOSU and M but Michigan could clinch early if Ohio State drops either the MSU or UMD games.
B1G-W:
- 5-1 Northwestern: Controls their own destiny and can afford to lose any of their remaining games (just not two without help).
- 4-2 Wisconsin: Needs two NU losses.
- 4-2 Purdue: Needs two NU losses.
- 3-3 Iowa: Needs one NU loss, one UW loss, and one PU loss. They could NOT win a three-way tie with NU and either PU or UW because that would come down to record against the next best team in the division and Iowa would lose that. They would also lose a four-way tie with NU, UW, and PU because they would be 1-2 H2H2H2H.
- 2-4 Illinois: Has a minute mathematical chance* but no practical chance.
- 1-5 Nebraska: Mathematically eliminated.
- 1-5 Minnesota: Mathematically eliminated.
As a practical matter this is between NU and the UW/PU winner but the UW/PU winner needs NU to drop two of their last three (@IA, @MN, vIL) so there is very little chance.
*Illinois' mathematical chance is this:
- Win out to finish 5-4.
- NU loses out to finish 5-4.
- The PU/UW winner loses out to finish 5-4.
- The PU/UW loser loses out to finish 4-5.
- Other than their loss to ILL, Iowa wins out to finish 5-4.
This creates a four-way tie between Illinois, Northwestern, Iowa, and the PU/UW winner. Illinois and Northwestern would be 2-1 in the H2H2H2H while Iowa and the PU/UW winner would be 1-2. That would then be decided by the H2H among the two 2-1 teams (Illinois and Northwestern) and the Illini would win that.
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At least the SEC made it easier for your there, already decided, a done deal, earliest in history.
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At least the SEC made it easier for your there, already decided, a done deal, earliest in history.
It is odd that the SECCG is set over a month in advance.
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Not when you factor in that a lot of SEC teams take a week off before their FCS tune up that precedes rivalry week; many of which are OOC rivalries.
Their Conference slate is mostly complete.
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This is the earliest the SEC has ever been decided since divisional play began. The teams in the West have two conference games remaining, in the main, but the top four teams in the East have but one.
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It sounds like Iowa needs, in addition to NW losing at least 1 other game, also Wisc and Purdue need to both lose twice.
Sounds like Iowa can't win any tiebreakers other than a 2-way tie with NW.
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It sounds like Iowa needs, in addition to NW losing at least 1 other game, also Wisc and Purdue need to both lose twice.
Sounds like Iowa can't win any tiebreakers other than a 2-way tie with NW.
That is pretty much it.
They can give NU a second loss this weekend but that just puts NU, UW, and PU one game ahead of Iowa in the loss column. Next weekend either PU or UW will lose. That helps but it is far from enough because the tiebreakers are not kind to the Hawkeyes. I do not see any mathematically possible tie that Iowa would win other than the one you mentioned, two-way with NU only.
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Interesting how many divisions are very complicated even now, and two are sewn up, and most of the others are down to two teams or close to it.
The ACC Coastal and Pac South vie for worst division champ I think.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DrUuBAAXcAIE0mT.jpg)
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In the race between East and West divisions, the East is up by 2 games with 4 inter-division games yet to play
Wisc at PSU -week 11
MSU at Neb - week 12
Pur at Indy - Week 13
CCG - week 14
So the East can not clinch until week 12 at the earliest. If Wisc can somehow upset PSU, it could come down to the CCG again.
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Go BUCKY!
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In the race between East and West divisions, the East is up by 2 games with 4 inter-division games yet to play
Wisc at PSU -week 11
MSU at Neb - week 12
Pur at Indy - Week 13
CCG - week 14
So the East can not clinch until week 12 at the earliest. If Wisc can somehow upset PSU, it could come down to the CCG again.
The B1G-W is doing very well when one considers that they play most of these on the road this year.
Interdivision games in B1G-E stadiums: East leads 8-4 with two to play.
- Nebraska lost at Michigan
- Wisconsin lost at Michigan
- Minnesota lost at Ohio State
- Nebraska lost at Ohio State
- Northwestern won at Michigan State
- Purdue lost at Michigan State
- Iowa lost at Penn State
- Minnesota lost at Maryland
- Illinois lost at Maryland
- Iowa won at Indiana
- Illinois won at Rutgers
- Northwestern won at Rutgers
- Wisconsin is at Penn State on 11/10
- Purdue is at Indiana on 11/24
Interdivision games in B1G-W stadiums: West leads 4-2 with one to play.
- Michigan won at Northwestern
- Ohio State lost at Purdue
- Penn State won at Illinois
- Maryland lost at Iowa
- Indiana lost at Minnesota
- Rutgers lost at Wisconsin
- Michigan State is at Nebraska on 11/17
So far the home teams are winning twice as many as they are losing with two more in B1G-E stadiums, one more in a B1G-W stadium, and the neutral-site B1GCG left to play. The B1G-E is up 10-8 with four to play.
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so, the East had a good home field advantage this season. Hopefully, this is reversed in 2019
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It flip flops back and forth like a greased catfish.
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Although Iowa has little chance to win the West, the Iowa-NW game this Saturday could be a big game for Bowl placement.
If Iowa can win out against NW, ILL an Neb, they could still end in the Holiday Bowl.
NW and Purdue bowl games are harder to predict because of non-conference losses. It would be interesting if NW wins out, then loses the CCG, what bowl they would get.
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Although Iowa has little chance to win the West, the Iowa-NW game this Saturday could be a big game for Bowl placement.
If Iowa can win out against NW, ILL an Neb, they could still end in the Holiday Bowl.
NW and Purdue bowl games are harder to predict because of non-conference losses. It would be interesting if NW wins out, then loses the CCG, what bowl they would get.
It is unlikely but Northwestern could clinch this weekend. If they win, that moves them to 6-1 and eliminates both Iowa and Illinois. At that point it would be down to just Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Purdue. The problem for the Badgers and Boilermakers is that they both already lost to Northwestern so the PU/UW winner would need to win out while Northwestern lost their last two games (@MN, vsIL) which is obviously very unlikely.
Iowa's bowl position is complicated by the fact that the Hawkeyes look a LOT better by "eye test" than they do by record. By record they are a three-loss unranked team. The eye test tells a story much more favorable to the Hawkeyes. The Wisconsin loss came before the Badgers were decimated by injuries and the Hawkeyes led until the last minute of the game. It ended up an 11 point win for the Badgers but it was a very close game. Iowa's other two losses were both on the road to quality opponents while their early win over Iowa State looks a lot better now that ISU has won four straight and five-of-six to move to 5-3 and become a factor in the B12 race.
I agree with you about Northwestern. Assuming they make it to the B1GCG (highly likely even if they lose this weekend) they will face one of the largest ever differences between bowl position based on winning or losing the CG. They'll be no better than 8-4 heading to Indianapolis and they could be 7-5 or even 6-6 and still make it. I'm pretty sure that P5 Champions are guaranteed a NY6 bowl so if they win they will get a major bowl but if they lose and finish 8-5, 7-6, or 6-7 they'll obviously head to a very minor bowl. The issue for Northwestern is exacerbated by the fact that they are not exactly known for travelling well so it isn't like bowls are going to be clamoring for them anyway.
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They remind me a bit of the 1979 UGA team that lost FOUR OOC games and was down to the last week to win the SEC and play in the Sugar Bowl at 8-4. It's not often you lose 4 OOC games period, much less while almost winning your conference.
Next year's team did better.
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Obviously it's very unlikely at this point that Purdue has any chance at the CCG.
It requires Purdue to win out--which is possible, but UW has been a thorn in our side since 2004 and I don't trust Purdue can beat them until we do.
But even if Purdue wins out, it requires 2 losses by NU, and with MN and IL remaining after this weekend, I find that unlikely too.
But on a personal level, bowl placement is looking a lot more interesting than I thought it would coming into 2018. I figured that Purdue had zero chance for either the Rose or the Holiday bowl, the two that are local, and that I likely wouldn't make another trip to the Foster Farms even if Purdue was selected.
So my wife and I made plans with another couple [husband is a Boilermaker, but not a big sports fan] to go to Paso Robles for NYE. I've already stated unequivocally that trip is cancelled if Purdue makes the Rose Bowl. But if Purdue makes the Holiday Bowl, it's a much tougher choice. A non-NY6 bowl is great, and it's driving distance, but is it enough to override 4 days of plans?
Don't know what to do here... I'm almost hoping that Purdue somehow misses the Holiday Bowl so I don't have to decide.
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I am guessing the bowls may work out like this. Lots of assumptions here
CFP cotton bowl - Mich
Rose -OSU
Citrus - PSU
Outback - MSU
Holiday - Iowa
Gator - Purdue
Pinstripe - Wisc
Redbox - NW
Detroit - MD
Now if Wisc beats PSU, Wisc could go to Citrus instead
If MSU beats OSU, MSU could go to Rose instead
If Purdue beats Wisc, Purdue could go to Holiday instead
If NW beats Iowa, NW could go to the Citrus instead
If NW wins the CCG, NW would go to the Rose instead
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So my wife and I made plans with another couple [husband is a Boilermaker, but not a big sports fan] to go to Paso Robles for NYE. I've already stated unequivocally that trip is cancelled if Purdue makes the Rose Bowl. But if Purdue makes the Holiday Bowl, it's a much tougher choice. A non-NY6 bowl is great, and it's driving distance, but is it enough to override 4 days of plans?
Don't know what to do here... I'm almost hoping that Purdue somehow misses the Holiday Bowl so I don't have to decide.
Depends on the match up to a small degree, but you're going to get a good PAC 12 school.
You can get to Paso Robles any old time. The Boilers don't often go to the Holiday Bowl.
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Also depends on how hard you are hunting for an excuse to cancel those four days of plans.
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Depends on the match up to a small degree, but you're going to get a good PAC 12 school.
You can get to Paso Robles any old time. The Boilers don't often go to the Holiday Bowl.
It is true, and we'll be going to Paso in March anyway [although not with that couple, unless we convince them to swap too].
Also depends on how hard you are hunting for an excuse to cancel those four days of plans.
I'm not... We asked the husband of that couple to specifically get ordained in order to preside over our wedding, so we enjoy plans with them ;-)
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well, if you can convince them into some swapping...... that's an exciting 4 days!
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well, if you can convince them into some swapping...... that's an exciting 4 days!
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/068/362/702.jpg)
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I'm not sure why my mind seems to gravitate to such levels, but it seems to do so w/o my intention
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So much for that Rose Bowl talk...
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Looks like Northwestern has clinched.
Even if they drop the last two, they own the H-H tiebreaker over anyone that can catch them.
I bet they lose at least one.
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Nice to see some fresh fish in Indy for the CCG. Who knows, could be two newbies. I'm planning to go with some friends that are NW alum.
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Congrats for NW. I like how the coach announced they had won the West to the team post game.
Purdue is a real puzzle surrounded by an enigma circling a problem, or some such silliness.
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Boilers/Gophers actually shocked me
I took the Boilers and gave the 12.5 points
shocked I say