header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: B1G Championship: #6 Ohio State (8-1, 12-1) vs. #21 Northwestern (8-1, 8-5)

 (Read 5118 times)

medinabuckeye1

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 10636
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Championship: #6 Ohio State (8-1, 11-1) vs. #21 Northwestern (8-1, 8-4)
« Reply #42 on: November 30, 2018, 09:15:13 AM »
The two teams have six common opponents (NU's three B1G-E opponents and tOSU's three B1G-W opponents).  Using our current Power Rankings to rank the opponents here they are with what each did against them:
  • #2 Michigan:  Both schools hosted the Wolverines.  Ohio State won by 23, Northwestern lost by 3:  Big advantage tOSU
  • #6/7 Purdue:  Both schools visited West Lafayette.  Northwestern won by 4, Ohio State lost by 29:  Big advantage NU
  • #8 MSU:  Both schools visited East Lansing.  Ohio State won by 20, Northwestern won by 10:  Advantage tOSU
  • #9 Nebraska:  Both schools hosted the Cornhuskers.  Ohio State won by 5, Northwestern won in OT.  Advantage tOSU
  • #10 Minnesota:  Ohio State hosted the Gophers, Northwestern visited Minneapolis.  Ohio State won by 16, Northwestern won by 10.  Roughly a wash after considering HFA.  
  • #14 Rutgers:  Ohio State hosted the Scarlet Knights, Northwestern visited Picastaway.  Ohio State won by 49, Northwestern won by 3.  Big advantage tOSU  

IMHO, the big tOSU advantage against Michigan and the big NU advantage against PU roughly cancel each other out and the Minnesota results are roughly a wash.  Then you are left with three and Ohio State has small advantages in two and a humongous advantage in the third.  

I just can't see Northwestern winning this game.  It isn't because I think the Buckeyes are unbeatable, I certainly do not.  Rather, it is because I just don't think Northwestern is very good.  I think their B1G-W championship is a product of three things:
  • The B1G-W was incredibly soft at the top this year.  Wisconsin is WAY below expectations and the Hawkeyes just couldn't beat quality opponents.  
  • Northwestern, to their credit, did just enough to win the games they needed to win:  Four points over Iowa, four points over Purdue.  
  • Northwestern was lucky to escape their bad conference games with W's.  Their three point win over Rutgers was the worst performance against #14 Rutgers by a B1G team all year.  Their eight point win over #13 Illinois is not that pathetic but it isn't good and needing OT to beat Nebraska is arguably almost as bad.  As bad as the Wildcats looked in those three games, they went 3-0 in them.  

All of the above is without even considering Northwestern's awful OOC.  The 10 point loss to Notre Dame is obviously forgivable but they lost by two TD's at home to Dook.  Dook is a bad team.  They finished 3-5 in a weak ACC.  The Wildcats also lost at home to Akron.  Akron is a bad MAC team.  I don't just mean that Akron is bad because they are in the MAC, Akron is bad for a MAC team.  They finished 2-6 in the MAC and their only MAC wins were over 0-8 CMU and 1-7 Kent.  It is bad enough to lose to a MAC title contender but this is something completely different.  Northwestern lost to one of the worst teams in the MAC.  

medinabuckeye1

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 10636
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Championship: #6 Ohio State (8-1, 11-1) vs. #21 Northwestern (8-1, 8-4)
« Reply #43 on: November 30, 2018, 09:22:30 AM »
Great analysis as usual @ELA !

This is difficult to articulate without sounding like I am rationalizing Ohio State's defensive struggles (I don't mean to do that at all) but Ohio State's defense is just strange this year.  They are terrible at giving up big plays but when they aren't giving up big plays they are one of the best (possibly the best) defenses in the league.  The problem, of course, is that big plays are obviously an important part of the game so that is a little bit like saying "Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?"  

The point I am trying to make here is that while Ohio State's defense has been very vulnerable to the big play, nobody has done well against them outside of those big plays so if Northwestern can't hit big plays then they are toast.  If Northwestern only converts 1/3 of their third downs and doesn't get a LOT of yardage in big chunks on big plays they'll have a VERY long evening of thee-and-outs and 15-25 yard drives.  

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 45593
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Championship: #6 Ohio State (8-1, 11-1) vs. #21 Northwestern (8-1, 8-4)
« Reply #44 on: November 30, 2018, 10:05:39 AM »
as much as I'm rooting for the Cats to pull the upset.......

I think the Bucks cover

Cat's offense isn't explosive enough to get the big plays needed
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Roaddawg

  • Red Shirt
  • ***
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 116
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Championship: #6 Ohio State (8-1, 11-1) vs. #21 Northwestern (8-1, 8-4)
« Reply #45 on: November 30, 2018, 01:14:26 PM »
Wasn't it on a play where OSU could have taken a knee?
IF Knox was not injured on that play, I believe Urban was going to score again, not on some trick running/pass play, but a straight up run it down your throat just to prove a point to Jimmy Football.  Don't like the sportsmanship of that attitude, but a part of me would have really enjoyed hearing the crying from Ann Arbor.

Brutus Buckeye

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12092
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Championship: #6 Ohio State (8-1, 11-1) vs. #21 Northwestern (8-1, 8-4)
« Reply #46 on: November 30, 2018, 01:21:49 PM »
IF Knox was not injured on that play, I believe Urban was going to score again, not on some trick running/pass play, but a straight up run it down your throat just to prove a point to Jimmy Football.  Don't like the sportsmanship of that attitude, but a part of me would have really enjoyed hearing the crying from Ann Arbor.
Agreed.
He was gonna punch it in and then go for two, like Woody Hayes.

Roaddawg

  • Red Shirt
  • ***
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 116
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Championship: #6 Ohio State (8-1, 11-1) vs. #21 Northwestern (8-1, 8-4)
« Reply #47 on: November 30, 2018, 01:27:02 PM »
Which tOSU Buckeye Team will me see Saturday Night in Indy?  That is the biggest game planning question on the table.  IF the team from Columbus last week shows up, I don't care how quick Clayton gets the ball out, NW will have a long a day.  Not saying the offense will stalled out, because Michigan still pounded out 400 yards, and not a much of it was in garbage time. 

If the Buckeye defense lets NW hit the under routes, like Michigan was doing and for some reason did not keep attacking, then it could be a Maryland Recap only in Purple.  Outside of Knox, it looks like tOSU is still very healthy and that depth could be an issue for NW.  They do not want to get into a slug fest with Ohio State, instead I expect to see a Purdue type game plan used.  Hopefully the Buckeye staff has revisited Fright Nite in West Lafayette film and are prepared. 

We beat Michigan.  We won the East (even though one Harbaugh wants a participation ribbon, or should I say banner).  Focus on the B10 CCG and bring that hardware back to the Woody Hayes Center.  IF playing in the ROSE BOWL is the final prize, I am ok with the chance to win the roses.  I still do not see this team as ready to step up to the Final Table.  I think they could beat Notre Dame, but not sure Clemson and Alabama would be good games.  Not because they are not talented enough to compete, just do not think the leadership in the locker room and on the field would be there after a few weeks of down time.

ELA

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 22875
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Championship: #6 Ohio State (8-1, 11-1) vs. #21 Northwestern (8-1, 8-4)
« Reply #48 on: November 30, 2018, 01:29:14 PM »
Agreed.
He was gonna punch it in and then go for two, like Woody Hayes.
That was the unanimous take among the Michigan fans I was watching with.

medinabuckeye1

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 10636
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Championship: #6 Ohio State (8-1, 11-1) vs. #21 Northwestern (8-1, 8-4)
« Reply #49 on: November 30, 2018, 01:49:37 PM »
That was the unanimous take among the Michigan fans I was watching with.
In my section of the stands we all wanted the team to score and go for two to make it an even 70, you know why?
BECAUSE WE COULDN'T GO FOR THREE!

Honestbuckeye

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 6920
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Championship: #6 Ohio State (8-1, 11-1) vs. #21 Northwestern (8-1, 8-4)
« Reply #50 on: November 30, 2018, 01:52:36 PM »
Agreed.
He was gonna punch it in and then go for two, like Woody Hayes.
If he wanted to- he would have.  
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

Honestbuckeye

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 6920
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Championship: #6 Ohio State (8-1, 11-1) vs. #21 Northwestern (8-1, 8-4)
« Reply #51 on: November 30, 2018, 01:56:54 PM »
Which tOSU Buckeye Team will me see Saturday Night in Indy?  That is the biggest game planning question on the table.  IF the team from Columbus last week shows up, I don't care how quick Clayton gets the ball out, NW will have a long a day.  Not saying the offense will stalled out, because Michigan still pounded out 400 yards, and not a much of it was in garbage time.  

If the Buckeye defense lets NW hit the under routes, like Michigan was doing and for some reason did not keep attacking, then it could be a Maryland Recap only in Purple.  Outside of Knox, it looks like tOSU is still very healthy and that depth could be an issue for NW.  They do not want to get into a slug fest with Ohio State, instead I expect to see a Purdue type game plan used.  Hopefully the Buckeye staff has revisited Fright Nite in West Lafayette film and are prepared.  

We beat Michigan.  We won the East (even though one Harbaugh wants a participation ribbon, or should I say banner).  Focus on the B10 CCG and bring that hardware back to the Woody Hayes Center.  IF playing in the ROSE BOWL is the final prize, I am ok with the chance to win the roses.  I still do not see this team as ready to step up to the Final Table.  I think they could beat Notre Dame, but not sure Clemson and Alabama would be good games.  Not because they are not talented enough to compete, just do not think the leadership in the locker room and on the field would be there after a few weeks of down time.
Northwestern is the opposite of Purdue. Their defense is excellent- and thrives on discipline in the gaps and keeping everything in front of them make the other guy go the long hard way and make mistakes. 
On offense- keep the ball, slow the pace- run the clock, try to make a few key 1st downs or big plays at critical times.  
They will limit OSUs possessions and their explosive plays. 
I expect a 34-27 type game.  
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

Roaddawg

  • Red Shirt
  • ***
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 116
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Championship: #6 Ohio State (8-1, 11-1) vs. #21 Northwestern (8-1, 8-4)
« Reply #52 on: November 30, 2018, 04:10:03 PM »
If he wanted to- he would have.  
I think the injury took the desire away.  it would have looked even more bush league after that, and he decided to just end the game.

Roaddawg

  • Red Shirt
  • ***
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 116
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Championship: #6 Ohio State (8-1, 11-1) vs. #21 Northwestern (8-1, 8-4)
« Reply #53 on: November 30, 2018, 04:17:01 PM »
Northwestern is the opposite of Purdue. Their defense is excellent- and thrives on discipline in the gaps and keeping everything in front of them make the other guy go the long hard way and make mistakes.
On offense- keep the ball, slow the pace- run the clock, try to make a few key 1st downs or big plays at critical times.  
They will limit OSUs possessions and their explosive plays.
I expect a 34-27 type game.  
Not sure they will try to go that route, they have had several weeks of film time and I would not be surprised if they try and move the ball fast and use the same type of style Purdue and Maryland had success with against the Buckeyes.  They do not have the match ups to go toe to toe and try to play a clock game.  I don't expect to see the same NW team that hung with Michigan.  Defensive side, all depends upon the Buckeye play calling.  Do they close it up and go stupid like the middle part of the season or do they stay on the attack and sling the ball around while putting some worthwhile power run plays, that will be a key factor.  I would like to see Dobbins run the ball a lot more than Weber, but Urban seems to be faithful to Weber.  34-27 would not surprise me, but neither would a 62-27 game. 

MarqHusker

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 6038
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Championship: #6 Ohio State (8-1, 11-1) vs. #21 Northwestern (8-1, 8-4)
« Reply #54 on: November 30, 2018, 06:00:19 PM »
I expect a crowd larger than N v UW, but smaller than the very first year.   There are tons of 600level seats available for dirt cheap.  I'm not convinced all of the other 400 level seats are actually sold either.   Venues love to control inventory in this stubhub, vivid seat world.   

Brutus Buckeye

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12092
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Championship: #6 Ohio State (8-1, 11-1) vs. #21 Northwestern (8-1, 8-4)
« Reply #55 on: November 30, 2018, 06:50:24 PM »

Hopefully Randy Walker will let Marcel watch it with him. 


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OAIIMOkEkcs

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.