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Topic: B1G Bowl position heading into the CG

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medinabuckeye1

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B1G Bowl position heading into the CG
« on: November 27, 2018, 11:45:23 AM »
It was pointed out to me last week that there probably will not be any 5-7 waivers this year so it appears that the season is over for Maryland and Indiana (both 5-7) along with UNL and Illinois (both 4-8) and RU (1-11).  

As I see it, there are three possibilities:
  • Ohio State wins B1GCG, goes to CFP.  
  • Ohio State wins B1GCG, goes to RoseBowl.  
  • Northwestern wins B1GCG, goes to RoseBowl.  

Scenario #1:
  • 12-1 Ohio State:  CFP (Orange?)
  • 10-2 Michigan:  Rose
  • 9-3 Penn State:  Citrus?  
  • 8-4 Iowa:  ?
  • 8-5 Northwestern:  ?
  • 7-5 Wisconsin:  ?
  • 7-5 Michigan State:  ?
  • 6-6 Purdue:  ?
  • 6-6 Minnesota:  ?

Scenario #2:
  • 12-1 Ohio State:  Rose
  • 10-2 Michigan:  Other NY6
  • 9-3 Penn State:  Citrus
  • 8-4 Iowa:  ?
  • 8-5 Northwestern:  ?
  • 7-5 Wisconsin:  ?
  • 7-5 Michigan State:  ?
  • 6-6 Purdue:  ?
  • 6-6 Minnesota:  ?
Scenario #3:
  • 11-2 Ohio State:  Other NY6
  • 10-2 Michigan:  Other NY6?  (is this possible?, can the B1G get three NY6 bowls?)
  • 9-3 Penn State:  Citrus
  • 9-4 Northwestern:  Rose
  • 8-4 Iowa:  ?
  • 7-5 Wisconsin:  ?
  • 7-5 Michigan State:  ?
  • 6-6 Purdue:  ?
  • 6-6 Minnesota:  ?
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LittlePig

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Re: B1G Bowl position heading into the CG
« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2018, 12:51:24 PM »
The other wildcard is could PSU make it to a commitee bowl like the Fiesta or Peach.  

But I am guessing PSU won't make the cut and will slide into the Citrus instead.
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ELA

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Re: B1G Bowl position heading into the CG
« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2018, 01:06:57 PM »
I believe the rule is 5 teams in 6 years, and no back to back, so here are the teams who have already gone, among the 6 teams in consideration with a 2017 participant in red.  I'm removing the five 5-7 or worse teams; also Michigan and Ohio State, who are locks for NY6; and Penn State who will either be NY6, or a lock for the Citrus if not, no way they take anyone else if they have the option. 

TIER 1
CITRUS: Minnesota
OUTBACK: Iowa, Northwestern, Wisconsin
HOLIDAY: Michigan State, Minnesota, Wisconsin

TIER 2
GATOR (most likely not Music City): Iowa

TIER 3
PINSTRIPE: Iowa, Northwestern
REDBOX: Purdue

The Quick Lane Bowl becomes possible if Penn State falls to the Citrus.  The problem is that beyond Penn State being a clear top choice for the Citrus Bowl, there is no obvious pecking order.  Iowa is 8-4, Northwestern is 8-5 (for purposes of this, everything changes if Northwestern wins and gets the Rose Bowl), MSU and Wisconsin are 7-5, Purdue and Minnesota are 6-6.

There used to be a rule that 6-6 teams had to go last, meaning those two teams would fill out Tier 3, and it would be Purdue to the Pinstripe and Minnesota to the Redbox to avoid repeats.  Not sure if that's still the rule.  That leaves MSU, Iowa, UW and NW for the top 4.  That would all but guarantee MSU the Outback to avoid repeats, since it's possible.  So Iowa would avoid the Gator and Wisconsin would avoid the Holiday.  My guess is Northwestern's small fan base gets trumped here, and Wisconsin goes to the Citrus, Iowa to the Holiday and Northwestern to the Gator.

This all gets thrown off if Northwestern wins, or Penn State doesn't get a NY6 bid.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Bowl position heading into the CG
« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2018, 01:16:33 PM »
Quote from: LittlePig on November 27, 2018, 12:51:24 PM
The other wildcard is could PSU make it to a commitee bowl like the Fiesta or Peach.  

But I am guessing PSU won't make the cut and will slide into the Citrus instead.
We'll see what the CFP rankings look like tonight but this looks like a slim possibility.  
Do I have this right?
  • There are six "NY6" or "committee" bowls.  
  • Thus there are six high end bowls with 12 slots available to fill them.  
Next, the five P5 Champions and the highest ranked G5 Champion are all guaranteed slots so that takes six leaving six "at-large" slots.  

The 12 slots (using AP rankings because the CFP isn't out yet):
  • Bama (regardless of SECCG outcome)
  • Clemson (regardless of ACCCG outcome)
  • Notre Dame
  • Georgia (regardless of SECCG outcome)
  • Oklahoma (regardless of B12CG outcome)
  • Ohio State (regardless of B1GCG outcome)
  • UCF (or other G5 Champion)
  • Michigan 
  • Washington (or Utah depending on B12CG outcome)
  • Florida
  • LSU
  • WSU

Penn State might end up ranked ahead of WSU which would theoretically put them in but there is another possibility that would keep them out.  If a lower ranked team wins a P5CG that would steal a slot, ie:
  • If Pitt beats Clemson then both Pitt and Clemson would go ahead of PSU.  
  • If Northwestern beats Ohio State then both NU and tOSU would go ahead of PSU.  
  • If Texas beats Oklahoma then both TX and OU would go ahead of PSU.  
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847badgerfan

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Re: B1G Bowl position heading into the CG
« Reply #4 on: November 27, 2018, 01:18:10 PM »
The B1G got 3 NYD6 bowls last year, and it got 4 (including the playoff for OSU) the prior year. I don't see why it couldn't get 3 this year. Need PSU to get to #11, I believe.
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LittlePig

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Re: B1G Bowl position heading into the CG
« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2018, 01:32:51 PM »
Hmmm...
The fact that NW and Iowa have been to the outback already  may mean that NW or Iowa could get bumped up to the Citrus and PSU will slide to the Outback instead.  And whoever does not go to the Citrus,  NW or Iowa,  will go to the Holiday.

Since NW won the West and beat Iowa H2H, you would think NW would go to the Citrus over Iowa. 
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ELA

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Re: B1G Bowl position heading into the CG
« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2018, 01:35:29 PM »
Quote from: LittlePig on November 27, 2018, 01:32:51 PM
Hmmm...
The fact that NW and Iowa have been to the outback already  may mean that NW or Iowa could get bumped up to the Citrus and PSU will slide to the Outback instead.  And whoever does not go to the Citrus,  NW or Iowa,  will go to the Holiday.

Since NW won the West and beat Iowa H2H, you would think NW would go to the Citrus over Iowa.
I thought about that, but I still don't see it.  The Citrus seems to be a step up from the others, and Penn State will be likely a top 12-15 team, while the other would be unranked.  The only way I'd see that is if they viewed the drop from PSU to Iowa/NW as smaller than the drop from Iowa/NW to MSU (who would be almost assured of the Outback in that scenario).  I doubt they do, particularly factoring in the PSU helmet.
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LittlePig

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Re: B1G Bowl position heading into the CG
« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2018, 01:40:29 PM »
Yup.  There will be no 5-7 teams that will go bowling this year.

There are 78 bowl spots total and 81 teams are already eligible, with potentially 2 more teams that could become eligible this this week.  This probably means the MAC and Sunbelt will have some 6-6 or even 7-5 teams sitting at home during bowl season.
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LittlePig

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Re: B1G Bowl position heading into the CG
« Reply #8 on: November 28, 2018, 10:52:29 PM »
If oklahoma makes the playoffs over OSU, that could bump PSU out of a NY6 bowl.

If Oklahoma makes the playoffs, then Big 12 gets to send another team to the Sugar Bowl, probably Texas.  That would be enough to bump PSU down.
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Cincydawg

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Re: B1G Bowl position heading into the CG
« Reply #9 on: November 29, 2018, 10:11:04 AM »
Going to a major bowl used to be a thing.  Now going to an NY6 bowl is a consolation prize that means "Well, here ya go, but you didn't make the real games.".  At least there are more of them in effect.  The Citrus has for a long time been a kind of tweener.  I guess it still is.
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847badgerfan

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Re: B1G Bowl position heading into the CG
« Reply #10 on: November 29, 2018, 10:17:02 AM »
Quote from: LittlePig on November 28, 2018, 10:52:29 PM
If oklahoma makes the playoffs over OSU, that could bump PSU out of a NY6 bowl.

If Oklahoma makes the playoffs, then Big 12 gets to send another team to the Sugar Bowl, probably Texas.  That would be enough to bump PSU down.
I dunno, I could see the NYD6 wanting 3 B1G teams, like last year when OSU, PSU and UW made it. Only this year you take out UW and add a helmet in UM. If NU beats OSU, then NU gets the Rose and OSU and UM are almost certain to make the NYD6.
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Entropy

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Re: B1G Bowl position heading into the CG
« Reply #11 on: November 29, 2018, 10:29:07 AM »
Texas travels well and they haven't been in one of the big bowl games in years.   They'll be attractive. 
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847badgerfan

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Re: B1G Bowl position heading into the CG
« Reply #12 on: November 29, 2018, 10:32:36 AM »
Quote from: Entropy on November 29, 2018, 10:29:07 AM
Texas travels well and they haven't been in one of the big bowl games in years.   They'll be attractive.
If they are in the top 12, yes they would be.
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Entropy

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Re: B1G Bowl position heading into the CG
« Reply #13 on: November 29, 2018, 10:35:59 AM »
correct...   More of a comparative statement regarding teams like PSU.   They're on pare when it comes to fans, travel, or helmet status.
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