Short version:
Six of the ten P5 CG spots are locked in. Iowa, FSU, L'ville, UGA, Bama, and Washington will play in P5 CG's this year.
One spot will be decided on the field between tOSU and M this weekend.
One more is pretty simple: In the Pac, Washington's opponent will be Oregon unless the Ducks lose (vs OrSU) and Arizona wins (at ASU). If the Ducks lose and the Wildcats win then Washington's opponent will be Arizona.
Then there is the B12 and that one is a confusing mess and they have already issued a mid-season tiebreaker rule clarification/change due to the complex potential scenarios.
B1G:
Iowa has clinched the B1G-W and will play the winner of The Game in the B1GCG.
ACC:
Florida State and Louisville have completed their ACC slates and will play each other in the ACCCG.
SEC:
Georgia and Alabama have clinched their divisions and will meet in the SECCG with (presumably) Connor Stallions in attendance.
P12:
Washington has clinched one spot. The other spot is between Oregon and Arizona. Oregon gets it if either they win (vs OrSU) or if Arizona loses (at ASU) but if Oregon loses AND Arizona wins that creates a tie between the two. Oregon and Arizona did not play each other this season so the first (H2H) tiebreaker is moot. The second tiebreaker is record against the best team in the league that is a common opponent, then the next, etc. In this case, they both lost to Washington. The next best team would be OrSU which would have beaten Oregon and lost to Arizona so the Wildcats would win the tie.
Those are the easy ones. Now for the mess:
B12:
Here are the standings for the relevant teams along with who they are playing this weekend:
- 7-1 Texas, vs TxTech
- 6-2 OkSU, vs BYU
- 6-2 Oklahoma, vs TCU
- 6-2 KSU, vs ISU
- 5-3 WVU, at Baylor
- 5-3 ISU, at KSU
- 5-3 TxTech, at Texas
Last week several publications reported that Texas could clinch with one more win. Well they got one more win (vs ISU) but they haven't clinched because those publications were apparently wrong.
If Texas wins their home game against TxTech this weekend, they are in with no need to consider tiebreakers.
If Texas loses they could still get in but it isn't so simple. They could end up tied with any or all of OkSU, OU, and KSU. The Longhorns didn't play OkSU, lost to OU, and beat KSU.
I believe that OkSU controls their own destiny because they beat both OU and KSU and didn't play Texas but I'm not 100% sure of that.
In theory OkSU, OU, and KSU could all lose while WVU, ISU, and TxTech all win thus creating final standings of:
- 7-2 Texas - in
- 6-3 OkSU
- 6-3 OU
- 6-3 KSU
- 6-3 WVU
- 6-3 ISU
- 6-3 TxTech
I have no idea how that six-way tie for the second B12CG spot would be broken.
The B12 has some really odd resumes. Texas has that huge road win over Bama but they lost to OU, needed OT to beat KSU, and didn't play OkSU. Against the next tier of B12 teams they do not play WVU, beat ISU last weekend and play TxTech this weekend. Outside of that win over Bama this resume is thin.
Oklahoma State's resume might be the weirdest in CFB. They have wins over Oklahoma and Kansas but got blown out by UCF and (checks notes) the University of South Alabama.
