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Topic: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18

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Kris60

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #504 on: October 24, 2018, 10:18:33 AM »
It’s not really an argument. They’ve played similarly difficult schedules. Purdue has a slightly better scoring differential, thus, a gap.
What OAM is slightly overlooking is he’s placing modest value on the order of these things, which is usually overstated. The gap between those two teams is 0.44 points. So the Boiliers would be a half-point favorite in a neutral field by this metric. And I don’t know that is that much of a reach.
Now there’s two interesting elements to this. For one, we probably understate the impact of schedule on record, granted we treat schedule as one flowing number, which is often not super helpful. It also opens the door for a Mid-Major to hammer its schedule with such ferocity it gets nice and high here. Which I don’t mind, but does irk some.
In the end, I’m not really for treating rankings as power rankings. I’m not for using poll logic either.
I think that minimizes the most important and most inarguable aspect of any game. Who won and who lost.  We can argue over should have and could have won. We can argue over why the margin of victory was big or small but who won and lost is in stone and it’s the entire reason these games are played.

Cincydawg

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #505 on: October 24, 2018, 10:22:02 AM »
But if Purdue beats Ohio State, no one is going to say it means Purdue is better than Ohio State.

The most important thing for predictive value is how well a team plays, not whether it won or lost.  When Purdue was 0-3, we all saw them as a dangerous team capable of upsetting someone later in the year.  0-3, but "impressive losses" that indicated potential.

FearlessF

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #506 on: October 24, 2018, 10:52:43 AM »
Sometimes the bloody-minded universe has one back go in when the OL is blocking best and one go in when it's blocking worst. You'd think such things would always be 50/50. But last year with Evans and Higdon at Michigan, I noticed that they definitely aren't always like that. And if you can put up 100 yards with clearly inferior blocking, that'd be another way to rank higher than your teammate on PFF, despite that other guy having even more yards.
dodging in the backfield
Ozigbo scored rather easily on runs of 49 and 59 yards in the 1st quarter
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

FearlessF

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #507 on: October 24, 2018, 10:59:21 AM »
But if Purdue beats Ohio State, no one is going to say it means Purdue is better than Ohio State.
I'm not so sure about "no one"
heck, if Purdue finishes strong and tOSU fails to beat UNL and and Michigan down the stretch, many might say that
it's similar to the polls this time of the year, we're just guessing
and as I've said many many times, even at the end of the season after all the games have been played and the playoff has decided a champion - we still down't know with certainty which teams are better than others.
Best of 7 just isn't feasible  
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Cincydawg

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #508 on: October 24, 2018, 11:03:13 AM »
The single point of evidence that Purdue beat Ohio State does not mean NOW that Purdue is the better team.

Would anyone think otherwise NOW?

Cincydawg

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #509 on: October 24, 2018, 11:03:30 AM »
Syllogism, a great word, very applicable.

Kris60

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #510 on: October 24, 2018, 11:13:31 AM »
But if Purdue beats Ohio State, no one is going to say it means Purdue is better than Ohio State.

The most important thing for predictive value is how well a team plays, not whether it won or lost.  When Purdue was 0-3, we all saw them as a dangerous team capable of upsetting someone later in the year.  0-3, but "impressive losses" that indicated potential.

I don’t think close losses and impressive losses can be lumped together.  I don’t consider losing a close game to Eastern Michigan impressive.  I’m not advocating for teams to be grouped by their losses but record has to come into play.  If I’m going to rank a 4-3 ream over a 6-1 team they better damn well have a good reason. I’m failing to see it with Purdue and Texas right now.  As the season plays out that might change but I couldn’t justify it right now.

FearlessF

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #511 on: October 24, 2018, 11:40:50 AM »
The single point of evidence that Purdue beat Ohio State does not mean NOW that Purdue is the better team.

Would anyone think otherwise NOW?
anyone takes even the irrational or ignorant into account
would anyone from this board think otherwise?  Probably not.
would anyone on Facebook think otherwise?  Probably so.
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

FearlessF

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #512 on: October 24, 2018, 11:50:35 AM »
“win expectancy” & advanced stats might help the voters and the committee

I know the committee studies these things

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/10/23/18014800/nebraska-huskers-football-scott-frost-2018
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rolltidefan

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #513 on: October 24, 2018, 12:09:09 PM »
I don’t think close losses and impressive losses can be lumped together.  I don’t consider losing a close game to Eastern Michigan impressive.  I’m not advocating for teams to be grouped by their losses but record has to come into play.  If I’m going to rank a 4-3 ream over a 6-1 team they better damn well have a good reason. I’m failing to see it with Purdue and Texas right now.  As the season plays out that might change but I couldn’t justify it right now.
agree. aTm might be a better example than purdue.
aTm is 5-2, those losses being a really close game vs clemson, and a closer-than-anyone-else loss to bama. they have a good win vs kentucky and a couple more decent wins vs ok teams.
they could arguably be a top 10 team despite having more losses than anyone else in the top 15. .
i'm not making this argument, but i would be inclined to listen to someone making it.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #514 on: October 24, 2018, 12:13:35 PM »
Looking at Purdue now, I think their loss to EMU is the game that least fits their season. I won't bother evaluating them today without ignoring that one.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #515 on: October 24, 2018, 12:15:32 PM »
It's obviously part of their resume but it's also irrelevant to their current quality/power.

Cincydawg

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #516 on: October 24, 2018, 12:22:00 PM »
So, how do folks think Purdue ends the season?

The could very well thin out because of injuries and lose at MSU, Iowa, say they beat Minn, lost to Wisky, and lose to Indiana.

Then they are a paltry looking 5-7 with that one W that looks like a something.  Do we then treat that W as a complete outlier?

Or they could continue to smoke people and beat everyone say but Wisky and finish a pretty decent 8-4 and be a tough bowl opponent.


Anonymous Coward

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #517 on: October 24, 2018, 12:49:46 PM »
I think we all agree that Purdue isn't actually better than OSU. The question is where they fit into the Big Ten West? Basically: at which level equal to or above "lost to NU" are they?
To answer that, I think the most important detail isn't Purdue but the other teams:
-Is Iowa for real?
-To which extent has UW fallen in 2018? (Perhaps ditto for MSU since they're on the schedule)
As long as Purdue holds at the level they were at 2-3 weeks ago (the good times, excluding OSU), they could win the West if those others teams are paper tigers. If those other teams are real? I'd predict Purdue to fold. 
Even if they lose more games, I am getting close to calling them a bowl lock, though.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2018, 12:51:30 PM by Anonymous Coward »

 

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