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Topic: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #490 on: October 23, 2018, 07:10:40 PM »
Over-ranking teams with great records is the consensus, but it means on the sliding scale of resume vs "better', the polls are way too far towards the resume end.



All I would request voters to do is give a 50/50 split to resume and who would win if they played right now at a neutral site.  But when you rank teams that way, it opens you up for criticism from the less valid consensus.  Ugh.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #491 on: October 23, 2018, 09:24:04 PM »
Looking at the teams ranked by SRS on CFR.com:
1. Alabama
2. Michigan
3. LSU
4. Oklahoma
5. Clemson
6. Georgia
7. Notre Dame
8. Iowa
9. Kentucky
10. Florida
Is this a crazy ranking?  No.  Teams with 1 loss mixed in with the undefeateds.  
More interestingly - Purdue is 12th.  4-3 Purdue.  Ahead of 6-1 Texas, 5-1 WV.  

That should be the norm, not a quirk in some random ranking system.  At least it's not a quirky rating system - it takes into account 2 things - point differential and SOS.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #492 on: October 24, 2018, 07:29:55 AM »
One way to address the schedule/win total bias would be to eliminate all the wins over teams who are not P5 (equivalent).  Then, some team that is 6-1 now might be only 3-1.  Georgia would be 4-1, and you might strike the Vandy win and just count "decent wins".

Or you could break out "quality wins over good opponents" to show LSU is 3-1 and many other teams are now 0-1 (Georgia).


Cincydawg

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #493 on: October 24, 2018, 07:54:05 AM »
Anyway, I worry very little about polls these days.  Midseason polls are vague indicators of something, perhaps letting you know that some team out west is having an apparently good year.  I would not have realized Cincinnati was undefeated if I had not taken a quick glance at a poll.

I really can think of no reason to worry about the polls, at any stage of the season.  The AP says blah blah and a weekend comes and often the rank ordering shifts because of upsets.  There are reasons to criticize the polls of course, and the main reason not to bother is that they do not matter.

At all.

bayareabadger

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #494 on: October 24, 2018, 08:25:05 AM »

Anyway, I worry very little about polls these days.  Midseason polls are vague indicators of something, perhaps letting you know that some team out west is having an apparently good year.  I would not have realized Cincinnati was undefeated if I had not taken a quick glance at a poll.

I really can think of no reason to worry about the polls, at any stage of the season.  The AP says blah blah and a weekend comes and often the rank ordering shifts because of upsets.  There are reasons to criticize the polls of course, and the main reason not to bother is that they do not matter.

At all.
There’s no reason to worry about them. I doubt the people who make them would tell you to worry about them. 
But damn do people worry about them. 

Kris60

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #495 on: October 24, 2018, 08:39:18 AM »
Looking at the teams ranked by SRS on CFR.com:
1. Alabama
2. Michigan
3. LSU
4. Oklahoma
5. Clemson
6. Georgia
7. Notre Dame
8. Iowa
9. Kentucky
10. Florida
Is this a crazy ranking?  No.  Teams with 1 loss mixed in with the undefeateds.  
More interestingly - Purdue is 12th.  4-3 Purdue.  Ahead of 6-1 Texas, 5-1 WV.  

That should be the norm, not a quirk in some random ranking system.  At least it's not a quirky rating system - it takes into account 2 things - point differential and SOS.  
And I think Purdue ahead of Texas is a shining example of how dumb that methodology is.  I’m much more interested in facts than opinions.  If we took a poll right now on who we think would win on a neutral field between Purdue and Texas the opinions would be all over the place with no way to prove who was right.
What is the argument for Purdue over Texas at this point?

bayareabadger

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #496 on: October 24, 2018, 08:54:13 AM »
And I think Purdue ahead of Texas is a shining example of how dumb that methodology is.  I’m much more interested in facts than opinions.  If we took a poll right now on who we think would win on a neutral field between Purdue and Texas the opinions would be all over the place with no way to prove who was right.
What is the argument for Purdue over Texas at this point?
It’s not really an argument. They’ve played similarly difficult schedules. Purdue has a slightly better scoring differential, thus, a gap. 
What OAM is slightly overlooking is he’s placing modest value on the order of these things, which is usually overstated. The gap between those two teams is 0.44 points. So the Boiliers would be a half-point favorite in a neutral field by this metric. And I don’t know that is that much of a reach. 
Now there’s two interesting elements to this. For one, we probably understate the impact of schedule on record, granted we treat schedule as one flowing number, which is often not super helpful. It also opens the door for a Mid-Major to hammer its schedule with such ferocity it gets nice and high here. Which I don’t mind, but does irk some. 
In the end, I’m not really for treating rankings as power rankings. I’m not for using poll logic either. 

FearlessF

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #497 on: October 24, 2018, 09:28:50 AM »
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

FearlessF

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #498 on: October 24, 2018, 09:30:18 AM »
How in the wide wide world of sports do you get the entire O-line and not get at least one RB?
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Cincydawg

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #499 on: October 24, 2018, 09:32:23 AM »
A problem as I see it is this.  Imagine "we" somehow KNEW which teams were better and in what order, absolutely.

And we have a game where #5 plays #8.  We KNOW this.

#8 still has a very good chance, call it 40%, of winning the game.

FearlessF

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #500 on: October 24, 2018, 09:36:37 AM »
Ed Zachery, the better team doesn't always win
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

bayareabadger

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #501 on: October 24, 2018, 09:42:59 AM »
How in the wide wide world of sports do you get the entire O-line and not get at least one RB?
Not many really big runs, maybe? Taylor had 159 yards, but no carry longer than 19. Deal had a 39 yarder, but only 12 carries, most in garbage time. 
Granted, I don't know much about how Washington got his. Maybe a lot of dodging in the backfield.

FearlessF

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #502 on: October 24, 2018, 09:52:19 AM »
I'm not sure how Washington grades better than Ozigbo

The stats don't add up and I was at the game and my eyeball says Ozigbo played better

Devine Ozigbo 12-152; 2 TDs  receiving 3-25; 

M. Washington 14-109; 1 TD  receiving 2-1

Washington must have picked up some blitzes very well or some downfield blocks
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #503 on: October 24, 2018, 10:13:51 AM »
I'm not sure how Washington grades better than Ozigbo

The stats don't add up and I was at the game and my eyeball says Ozigbo played better

Devine Ozigbo 12-152; 2 TDs  receiving 3-25;

M. Washington 14-109; 1 TD  receiving 2-1

Washington must have picked up some blitzes very well or some downfield blocks
Sometimes the bloody-minded universe has one back go in when the OL is blocking best and one go in when it's blocking worst. You'd think such things would always be 50/50. But last year with Evans and Higdon at Michigan, I noticed that they definitely aren't always like that. And if you can put up 100 yards with clearly inferior blocking, that'd be another way to rank higher than your teammate on PFF, despite that other guy having even more yards.

 

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