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Topic: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18

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FearlessF

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #476 on: October 23, 2018, 11:12:22 AM »
looking at the Peach Bowl (UCF/Auburn) and the CFP (Georgia/Bama final)

the AP poll may have been more accurate.
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #477 on: October 23, 2018, 11:39:51 AM »
and how much different is the committee's poll than the AP????
Various polls however contrived are not going to differ that much unless they are done by an algorithm, are early in the year, or are weird to get noticed and clicks.
We've done polls here fairly often and they end up looking about like the AP/UPI/BCS whatever.  I still think the committee invests quite a bit more than 5 minutes on that fourth team, as the first three are usually clear cut.
Today, I think nearly every has Bama, Clemson, ND 1 2 3.  Michigan might make 4 at the moment, but OU has a stake in there. LSU has three impressive wins and a tough road loss.  So, right no, #4 is debatable.


FearlessF

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #478 on: October 23, 2018, 01:01:50 PM »
so in reality, it doesn't matter if the coach has a grad assistant spend 4 minutes or 4 hours on the poll, the AP writer spends 4 minutes or 4 hours on the poll, or if the committee spends an enormous amount of time and resources on the poll?

heck, the computer polls are much different at the end of the season
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

rolltidefan

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #479 on: October 23, 2018, 01:15:24 PM »
looking at the Peach Bowl (UCF/Auburn) and the CFP (Georgia/Bama final)

the AP poll may have been more accurate.
the cfp poll is pre-bowls, the ap is post. for the pre-bowl ap, the top 8 were identical to the cfp poll.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NCAA_Division_I_FBS_football_rankings

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #480 on: October 23, 2018, 01:54:47 PM »
Oh I agree OAM may confuse you with the misguided masses on whose Bell Curve he's always been way ahead of.Don't believe me ask him :67:
I'm on the bell curve, as are we all.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #481 on: October 23, 2018, 01:56:52 PM »
the cfp poll is pre-bowls, the ap is post. for the pre-bowl ap, the top 8 were identical to the cfp poll.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NCAA_Division_I_FBS_football_rankings
Thank you for that clarification.  I assume it was an accidental error in the first place.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #482 on: October 23, 2018, 02:24:32 PM »
I don't recall specifying the AP poll was WRONG, just lazily updated each week.  To move up the top 9 teams one spot for not losing is lazy.

The biggest differences between the human polls and the computer rankings:
1 - context...humans only take it into account rarely and in the most radical instances
2 - wins and losses aren't the be-all, end-all for computers 
3 - humans (more so 5+ years ago) almost rewarded early-season losses, as a late-season loss was damning - when you lost counted for more than who it was to



“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #483 on: October 23, 2018, 02:25:05 PM »
I prefer to be Gaussian myself, in a magnetic personality kind of way.

We don't get a "final CFP poll", interestingly, so you can't claim your team finished say 6th in any CFP poll.

Cincydawg

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #484 on: October 23, 2018, 02:29:00 PM »
I recall when there were many many polls from competing web sites trying to attract interest, and controversy.  Our old site was like that, they'd post some very weird rankings to elicit controversy and clicks.

We still have things like the "ESPN Power Poll" and one on CBS, etc.  And a lot of folks get upset over how their team is ranked.

Basically, the only one that matters - AT ALL - if the final CFP "poll", and then only if your team is ranked 3-7th, and a bit down from there to set the NY6 teams.  The rest is just for jawing.

My "favorite" poll is based on some theoretical of how Vegas would set the odds on opponents.  Hint, Alabama is favored by 10+ over the field.


OrangeAfroMan

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #485 on: October 23, 2018, 02:45:45 PM »
All I know is that a long list of undefeateds followed by a long list of 1-loss teams isn't going to be accurate.  Some 3-loss teams would beat some 1-loss teams.

A true, genuine (impossible-to-know) ranking of teams would seem like a mish-mash of teams with varying records.



But that doesn't "seem" correct, so the voters act in a safe, sheepish manner.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2018, 02:48:53 PM by OrangeAfroMan »
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #486 on: October 23, 2018, 03:22:35 PM »
the cfp poll is pre-bowls, the ap is post. for the pre-bowl ap, the top 8 were identical to the cfp poll.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NCAA_Division_I_FBS_football_rankings
thanks
more proof that Coaches, AP writers, and paid doctors/gurus of college football with countless hours and a boat load of information all come to the same conclusion
Hayden Fry was right, "Never schedule a loss"
SOS be damned!
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

MrNubbz

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #487 on: October 23, 2018, 03:42:58 PM »
Hayden Fry was right, "Never schedule a loss"
That bit of info would have come in handy when I was dating
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

Cincydawg

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #488 on: October 23, 2018, 04:48:42 PM »
Most of the time, an 11-1 team will beat a 9-3 team.  Of course, SOME of the time there would be an upset for various reasons.

And SOME of the team the 9-3 team really is better than the 11-1 team.

But it is easier and faster just to line up the P5s by number of losses and jiggle a few up and down.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #489 on: October 23, 2018, 05:31:00 PM »
Most of the time, an 11-1 team will beat a 9-3 team.  Of course, SOME of the time there would be an upset for various reasons.

And SOME of the team the 9-3 team really is better than the 11-1 team.

But it is easier and faster just to line up the P5s by number of losses and jiggle a few up and down.
Well and there's also the question of whether you're ranking the outcomes/resumes, or ranking them as a power poll. 
There are a lot of times a team finishes 9-3 because of a bad beat or two, and an 11-1 team caught a lucky break, and the 9-3 team *should* be above the 11-1 on a power poll. But if the polls rank a 9-3 over an 11-1, people will lose their ish...
2015 Iowa was clearly a paper tiger. They barely beat Pitt, Wisconsin, Indiana and Minnesota. Wins against Illinois and Nebraska weren't exactly blowouts. They only ranked team they faced was Wisconsin at 19. They didn't exactly have a world-beating resume, but they were undefeated. So they were 3rd in the coaches poll, and 4th in the AP and the CFP polls, heading into the B1G CCG. And then they got absolutely dismantled 45-16 in the Rose by Stanford--and if I remember correctly, it was 35-0 at some point and those 16 points were basically garbage time scores. 
And the 11-1 MSU they faced in the CCG got absolutely smoked by Bama in the CFP semifinal. That team barely beat Oregon, beat Michigan on one of the more fluke endings in CFB history, squeaked by terrible Rutgers and Purdue teams that year, and lost to a Nebraska team that finished the regular season 5-7 and had to get an exemption to go to a bowl. Their resume was better than Iowa's but not by much, and it showed when they were shut out 38-0 by Alabama.
Did anyone really think that Iowa was roughly on par with the rest of the CFP top 10? No. They simply did not have the top-to-bottom talent on their roster. Ferentz is a good coach, but he's neither great nor innovative. We all know what Iowa is. A good team that caught some lucky breaks and a mediocre strength of schedule to get to 12-0. 
This is the problem with the polls. Everyone knew Iowa wasn't that good. But they were undefeated [in a P5 conference], so of course they're overranked.

 

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