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Topic: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center

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847badgerfan

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #252 on: March 06, 2025, 12:29:32 PM »
Great if that happens. Does the Senate need 60 in that case? 2/3 House?
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #253 on: March 06, 2025, 03:50:50 PM »
Great if that happens. Does the Senate need 60 in that case? 2/3 House?
No, simple majority.  Federal Law isn't dictated by State Constitutions so the Illinois Constitution is a non-factor in the determination of a Federal Law.  Moreover, we wouldn't technically be overriding the Illinois Constitution anyway.  What this *WOULD* do is to put Illinois' public officials in a real pickle.  

Review of my general proposal:
  • Drop the exemption for Public Sector Pension Plans from ERISA.  
  • Establish a multi-year (probably multi-decade) phase-in period.  
  • Enact such penalties and enforcement provisions as necessary.  

This would present most states with a challenging situation.  Ie, Ohio's Pensions are somewhere around 70% funded depending who you ask.  So if ERISA was applied to them, the State of Ohio would have to figure out how to close that 30% gap.  They would almost certainly accomplish this through a combination of contribution increases and benefit reductions.  Ie, they'd hire actuaries to tell them how much impact various changes would have then select a combination of changes that worked.  

In Illinois the officials presented with this challenge would have half of their options (benefit reductions) taken away from them by the State Constitution so they would have to close the gap entirely through contribution increases.  This is why I stated earlier that the Illinois contributions would probably become a multiple of rather than a fraction of payroll.  

As a practical matter, this would be catastrophic for Illinois and it's political subdivisions.  They would see their pension contributions increase by a staggering amount.  For nearly all governments, payroll is easily the largest expenditure and it is frequently more than half of total expenditures.  If payroll costs suddenly increased by a large amount, there would be a massive number of layoffs and budget cuts across the state.  That would be terrible but it would ultimately just be adjusting to force Illinois and it's political subdivisions to live within their means rather than promising pension benefits that they have no ability to pay and counting on unicorns and ferries to make up the difference.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #254 on: March 06, 2025, 06:23:08 PM »
life isn't fair
the Chicago cop could have went to work in Indiana
it isn't the Chicago cop's fault, but it's certainly not the Detroit cops problem to fix

hold the administrator's to the fire of accountability
I don't disagree and my proposal of subjecting the Public Sector Pensions to ERISA would do exactly what you are asking for here.  
It's too late.

Report: Illinois, Chicago public pension crises worst in U.S.
This was an interesting read but I don't think it is quite as bad "too late" as you do, at least for most pensions.  

Looking at some of what they present, there are only four states with funding of <60%.  The worst states are:
  • 51% Illinois
  • 53% Kentucky
  • 56% New Jersey
  • 57% Connecticut
  • 62% South Carolina
  • 62% North Dakota
  • 63% Alabama
  • 63% Mississippi
  • 64% Hawaii
  • 64% Pennsylvania

As I see it, this isn't really even a partisan issue.  Sure, some Republicans might point at Deep Blue Illinois and say this is because Democrats are in charge there but the next worst state is Deep Red Kentucky so that argument doesn't get far.  Of the 10 worst I've got:
  • 5 Deep Red (KY, SC, ND, AL, MS)
  • 4 Deep Blue (IL, NJ, CT, HI)
  • 1 Purple (PA)

At the other end of the spectrum, Deep Red Tennessee, South Dakota, and Utah are 100%+ funded but so is Deep Blue Washington with Deep Blue New York not far behind at 93%.  

My point is that it isn't an issue where one party is solely responsible.  There are Deep Red states with well funded Pensions and with catastrophically underfunded Pensions, same for Deep Blue states.  


After looking at this article, I have now fleshed out my phase-in idea so here it is:
  • Minimum of 50% funding one year from adoption.  
  • Increases by 2% per year for 25 years until reaching 100% funding requirement 26 years after adoption.  
  • Plans below the required funding level would have to have a Court/DOJ monitored actuarially realistic plan in place to reach 100% funding within 36 years of adoption or 10 years of current date whichever is later.  
  • Failure to comply would result in the plan being sent to bankruptcy court to be liquidated.  
If you look at the 10 worst statewide plans, I think this would be difficult but achievable for all but a few, per the article linked by @847badgerfan , worst statewide plans:
  • 1.9% California Judges (but this one is pay-as-you-go)
  • 21.7% Kentucky State Employees
  • 30.1% New Jersey State Employees
  • 32% Arizona Elected Officials
  • 32.9% New Jersey State Police, Fire
  • 36.4% Indiana Teachers pre-1996
  • 39.3% New Jersey Teachers
  • 40.7% Illinois State Employees
  • 42.4% Illinois Judges
  • 42.8% Illinois Teachers
The Illinois plans and the New Jersey Teachers are at least close to 50%, it wouldn't be prohibitively expensive to fix those over 36 years.  The rest get trickier but there aren't THAT many Judges in California nor Elected Officials in Arizona so those wouldn't be all that expensive to just fund.  The ones that look seriously problematic are the Kentucky and New Jersey State Employees and New Jersey Police and Fire.  Those, I assume, are large plans with LOTS of beneficiaries so the States in question couldn't just fund them overnight.  Severe changes would have to be made.  

Looking at the large local plans (again from @847badgerfan 's link) only Chicago laborers, police, municipal, and firefighters are below 40% funding.  Those are seriously problematic and possibly looking at insolvency.  The rest are all at at least 40% so they could be fixed over time (36 years as I laid it out above).  

This isn't impossible to solve but it gets worse every year that nothing is done.  What say you on the legal side @MarqHusker and from a different political perspective @SFBadger96 ?

SFBadger96

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #255 on: March 06, 2025, 06:41:03 PM »
In the abstract, yes, I think public pension funds need to be guaranteed by more than the public entity saying so. I know there has been a decent amount of work on that in California, much of which involves cutting benefits for people who come into the system later, and increasing their individual contributions. Also, politicians responsible for this sort of thing are always a little rosy in their projections. A federal law governing that seems like a good idea (which Article I clause would it fit under--the Commerce Clause, I suppose? Bit of a stretch there, but I haven't paid a lot of attention to the (admittedly broad) reach of the Commerce Clause under current jurisprudence). I haven't given much thought to how the system would work (and while I'm aware of ERISA, I don't know its details, either), but, again, good idea. 

What I'm not worried about? The funding level of the judges' pensions in California. In the grand scheme of the State of California, the pensions for however many judges we have isn't going to bankrupt the state. Now, all public employees combined? Yeah, that's a problem. As I said, one that is being addressed, but it wouldn't be a bad idea to put some federal teeth behind it.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #256 on: March 07, 2025, 11:13:17 AM »
What I'm not worried about? The funding level of the judges' pensions in California.
Since they are judges I assume that they would simply order the California Legislature to fund their pension and that would be that.
Also, politicians responsible for this sort of thing are always a little rosy in their projections.
This is a major problem. A while back there was an LA Mayor who adjusted to more optimistic projected investment returns then campaigned for reelection on having reduced LA's pension liability, LoL.

This problem is bad enough that Moody's doesn't use the local figures. Instead they make their own calculations:
  • MANPL (Moody's Adjusted Net Pension Liability) for pension, and
  • MANOPEBL (Moody's Adjusted Net Other Post-Employment Benefit Liability) for retiree Healthcare.
Here in Ohio, my local city's liabilities according to Moody's are around three times the amount calculated by the State and reported on the Financial Statements. 

ERISA would fix this because under ERISA private sector pensions do not get to choose their own assumptions, those are dictated.

SFBadger96

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #257 on: March 07, 2025, 12:45:57 PM »
According to Google AI, there are about 1500 judges in California, out of approximately 2.3 million public sector employees. While the judges are relatively highly paid public employees, I don't think their pension plans will break the state. 
:)

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #258 on: March 07, 2025, 12:54:48 PM »
According to Google AI, there are about 1500 judges in California, out of approximately 2.3 million public sector employees. While the judges are relatively highly paid public employees, I don't think their pension plans will break the state.
:)
Agreed. Even given that the Judges are fairly highly paid and I assume that their pensions are pretty rich, 1,500 people is a rounding error next to 2.3 Million beneficiaries. 

FearlessF

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #259 on: March 07, 2025, 01:06:46 PM »
the judges will be OK
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #260 on: March 07, 2025, 01:08:25 PM »
I'm starting to feel real sympathy for California judges after watching a bunch of Lincoln Lawyer episodes.


SFBadger96

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #261 on: March 07, 2025, 01:24:15 PM »
You should have [some] sympathy for California judges, at least in the big cities. I couldn't afford to be a judge. I would have to sell my not especially amazing house. It's a nice house, sure, but it's nothing all that special. On of my law partners is married to a judge. My partner is the one who is the family bread winner. Don't get me wrong, judges here make solid six-figure salaries, but they don't make close to what private practice lawyers make. My colleagues who have become judges have done so after making really good money somewhere else for long enough that they can afford the pay cut. Superior Court judges in my area make almost exactly the area's median income for a household of 4.

FearlessF

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #262 on: March 07, 2025, 01:44:44 PM »
less if the judge is married to a law partner
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #263 on: March 07, 2025, 02:09:27 PM »
You should have [some] sympathy for California judges, at least in the big cities. I couldn't afford to be a judge. I would have to sell my not especially amazing house. It's a nice house, sure, but it's nothing all that special. On of my law partners is married to a judge. My partner is the one who is the family bread winner. Don't get me wrong, judges here make solid six-figure salaries, but they don't make close to what private practice lawyers make. My colleagues who have become judges have done so after making really good money somewhere else for long enough that they can afford the pay cut. Superior Court judges in my area make almost exactly the area's median income for a household of 4.
Related topic I'm just curious about:

Do Federal judicial salaries vary based on local cost of living?

I'm wondering because if the are uniform then I imagine that a Federal Judge in say NYC or San Francisco is poor while one in say KC is rich.

SFBadger96

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #264 on: March 07, 2025, 02:30:13 PM »
Nope. Same throughout the country.

Upside: the best job security you can imagine, and I imagine they end their careers with federal pensions. So in NYC that won't make you rich, but it will make your retirment comfortable. In the Northern District of Mississippi it's probably a pretty good gig.

Also, the most typical route to becoming a judge is by first being a public attorney, whether a prosecutor or public defender (more often prosecutors), and probably next is a public civil attorney (for the state attorney general or the feds). On the appeals courts there are a decent number of academics--they were making a university salary, so also probably not that high. Everyone fits their lifestyle to their salary, so if you're going from being an assistant district attorney to being a judge, that's not going to be a financial hit.

For people going from private practice, they will have time to prepare for the pay.

So don't feel too bad for the judges. :-)

FearlessF

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #265 on: March 07, 2025, 02:33:53 PM »
and in Sioux City, IA
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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