Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

This is a very tricky game to pick.

I imagine there will be a whole lot of Michigan fans in the stands for this one.

Vegas has the boys from Ann Arbor giving 10 points, which if I was handicapping it I'd probably make UM a 3 point favorite.

I've been pleasantly surprised with those boilers, I was on the fence after the Louisville game, and beating Ohio is nice, but it's Ohio. But the beatdown last weekend against Mizzou definitely makes me believe this is an improved squad.

Michigan's D has been pretty solid, but their passing attack has been pretty abysmal for Michigan standards.  They just cant keep the chains moving. I'm guessing it will be a 50/50 crowd at least.

I agree, I think the Boilers pull the shocker, if Iowa could do the same somehow the BIG will be out of the playoffs possibly, but the conference race will be up for grabs big time.

Purdue 27-23

Vegas has the boys from Ann Arbor giving 10 points, which if I was handicapping it I'd probably make UM a 3 point favorite.

Really? If I was handicapping, I'd say Michigan -14.5 or so. For Vegas to make it -9.5 (last I saw) IMHO suggests they don't have a huge amount of faith in Michigan. 
I think Purdue hit it out of the park with this coaching hire, but Harbaugh is IMHO an excellent coach and has proven it at multiple jobs. If football success comes down to talent+coaching, and both teams have coaching, you have to give the edge to the team that stocked with 4- and 5-star studs over the team with a bunch of 3-stars.

Rumors abound that Michigan freshman starting WR Tarik Black sustained a serious lower body injury and may be out of the game.

Sounds like it might be a season ending foot injury

Perhaps it is confirmation bias, but I have noticed for the first time in a couple seasons,  TV spots for Purdue football, actually trying to sell tickets on Indy network affiliates.

That's not particularly surprising.  Last weeks performance created a decent amount of national exposure.  Yes, Missouri is pretty crappy, but I saw a lot of "Week 3 winners and losers" articles that mentioned Purdue.  I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I believe that I saw that Purdue has beaten the spread on its first three games by 18, 26, and 38 points.  There is a buzz for the first time in a reallllllly long time.  Marketing guys are not idiots.  They will grab whatever money they can get and ride that wave until the rug gets pulled out from under us like all good Purdue football fans know is coming.  

Bill Connolly did a breakdown of Michigan's offense that the major problem is lack of production on 1st down.

The overall numbers don't look bad, but that's because 5 1st down plays have generated a total of 211 yards (42.2 ypp).  Their other 83 1st down plays have generated a total 253 yards (3.0 ypp).  They are only staying ahead of the sticks on 1st down 33% of the time.  49% of the time they've gained less than a yard.

The red zone TD numbers I brought up last week, were brought up again in the Air Force telecast, namely because they got even worse.  But he pulled some deeper numbers and on 1st down in the red zone, UM has had no gain or a loss 67% of the time.

They've actually converted from behind the sticks more often than you'd expect, which is keeping the overall offensive numbers respectable.  So you can take it two ways.  Either, (1) figure out 1st down and the offense will actually be pretty good; or (2) they are converting 1st downs after a lack of production on 1st down at an unsustainable rate, and their offensive numbers will actually come down further once that regresses to the mean.  Or, I suppose, most likely, 1st down production will improve, but 3rd and long production will regress to the mean, and it'll all even out.

Michigan has issues pass blocking.  It's just a little bit harder to make accurate throws when you're running for your life.  The situation is kind of the opposite of what they had last year.

In three games, Purdue has three sacks total. 
IMHO from what I've seen against Louisville and Mizzou (didn't watch the Ohio game), it seems that Purdue's gotten into the backfield and gotten pressure, but they weren't able to corral Lamar Jackson and didn't actually get a lot of hits on Lock. 

So statistics-wise, I would say that Purdue is not a team that will exploit this weakness particularly well.