Over my lunchbreak I watched the
College Football Nerds preview. They both picked PSU but both by pretty close scores and both were hesitant due to some interesting oddities in their model.
If you aren't familiar with their model, they compare yards per play gained and allowed on both passing and rushing plays to the average allowed/gained by the opponent. Ie, if you rush for 6 YPC against a D that typically allows 4 YPC, that is great, 50% over the average. Conversely, if you rush for 6 YPC against a D that typically allows 8 YPC, that is terrible, 25% below the average. The same theory applies to passing yards per attempt and to both rushing and passing yards per play allowed defensively.
What I found interesting is that they predicted that tOSU would gain considerably more yards per play and have more yards in the game but that PSU would win anyway because PSU's offense has been a LOT more efficient than tOSU's.
More specifically they predicted that both rushing offenses would be ineffective. Ohio State's was slightly worse at 2.7 YPC but PSU's 2.9 is only marginally better and both of those figures are BAD. Also the 0.2 YPC difference is basically irrelevant. To put it in perspective, on 30 carries each, that would suggest 81 yards for tOSU and 87 yards for PSU. Both of those are obviously terrible.
Where Ohio State had a significant advantage is in passing YPA. PSU was around 5 YPA predicted while tOSU was around 6.5 YPA predicted. Both of those figures are bad but not quite as bad as the rushing figures and the difference is much more pronounced. Assuming 30 passing attempts each, that suggests about 150 yards for PSU and around 195 yards for Ohio State.
The problem for Ohio State is that they throw away WAY too many yards. Both nerds thought or at least considered it not unlikely that tOSU would have more scoring opportunities but that PSU would get more points out of the scoring opportunities that they do get.
I think that is not an unlikely outcome.
The most likely thing to change that, IMHO, would be for either McCord or Allar to have either a really bad or a really good game. I think this game is close enough that any of those four things would decide the game unless it is matched by the other QB.
A second thing that I think could matter a LOT is whether or not Henderson is available and full strength for the Buckeyes. IMHO, Henderson is MUCH more likely than any of Ohio State's other RB's to break a long run. The stats from the ND game illustrate this perfectly. For that game tOSU had 27 carries for 126 yards for a respectable 4.7 YPC. However, that was really all about Henderson hitting a Home Run from the tOSU 39 yard line. With that ONE rush excluded from tOSU's total, they had 26 carries for 65 yards which is a pathetic 2.5 YPC. I see this game being close enough that a run like that could be the difference. If Ohio State has 19 carries for 51 yards (2.7 YPC, see above) but Henderson breaks one for 60+ that would total 20 carries for 111+ yards (5.5+ YPC).
The final thing that I see as crucial is explosive plays and this could go either way:
- PSU has been great at generating explosive plays defensively but terrible at generating explosive plays offensively.
- tOSU has been great at generating explosive plays offensively but terrible at generating explosive plays defensively.
Based on the above, you are most likely to see explosive plays when Ohio State's offense is on the field. How many go each way and just how explosive they are will likely decide the game. PSU is going to get some pressure and some sacks but sacks aren't necessarily fatal if there aren't too many of them. Similarly, tOSU is going to hit some longer passes but giving up a few long passes isn't necessarily fatal either. Either team can overcome that if they are a limited number of sacks that just result in punts or long passes that just result in another set of downs or a FG.
Where it likely becomes decisive is if tOSU gives up 2+ strip sacks or if PSU gives up 2+ long TD passes.
Another thing the nerds said in tOSU's favor is that tOSU has probably played their best ball in the last six quarters.
