From what I've read, PSU is "stoutly built" in the trenches and on defense which usually mitigates having a majorly down day on the field.
IL Defense
Penn State lost their 2nd best O-Lineman due to medical retirement just before the season started, and they don't quite look as strong as they did last year. The strength of this Illinois team is on their defensive front. That, could, in theory, be a problem.
IL returns 7 starters on their defense, a defense that led the country in scoring in 2022. In theory, they should be one of the stronger defensive teams in the country.
IL's notable returning defensive starters:
DL Newton (All Big 10 in 2022)
DL Randolph (All Big 10 3rd team)
LB Gabe Jacas (Freshman All-American, B1G HM)
LB Coleman (All-B1G HM)
In spite of this, the 2023 IL defense has looked terrible. They have given up almost 500 yards per game in their first two contests. With that said, I can't help but think it is just a matter of time before IL gets it together.
Still, Penn State will have to rely on their rookie QB in a hostile environment, as I expect IL to stack the box. So far Allar he has done well, but IL has the talent to make him uncomfortable.
IL OffensePSU will face an IL team that looks pretty suspect on offense. IL's QB (Altmyer) has looked pretty good to me, but he just doesn't have much to work with. IL ranks 93rd in passing offense, averaging just over 200 yards per game. I doubt that Altmyer will have much success against the PSU secondary, and PSU will try to force IL into throwing the ball. If this happens, it will likely result in another PSU blowout.
IL averages about 150 yards of rushing offense per game, which sounds pretty good. However, Luke Altmyer is IL's leading rusher, and has almost 50% of Illinois's total rushing yards for the year. I have not been impressed with the IL running backs. PSU has shown two weaknesses on defense. A running game between the tackles, and a weakness against scrambling QBs. IL does not seem to have the running back or OLine talent to exploit the former. However, Altmyer is mobile enough that he could cause Penn State some problems.
I'm thinking that IL will be better on defense than they have shown so far this year, and will give the PSU offense some problems. PSU has a clear advantage on defense.
Penn State should win this game without too much drama. However, IL has just enough talent to make me nervous.
PSU 35
IL 10