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From what I've read, PSU is "stoutly built" in the trenches and on defense which usually mitigates having a majorly down day on the field.

From what I've read, PSU is "stoutly built" in the trenches and on defense which usually mitigates having a majorly down day on the field.

IL Defense

Penn State lost their 2nd best O-Lineman due to medical retirement just before the season started, and they don't quite look as strong as they did last year.  The strength of this Illinois team is on their defensive front.  That, could, in theory, be a problem.

IL returns 7 starters on their defense, a defense that led the country in scoring in 2022.  In theory, they should be one of the stronger defensive teams in the country. 

IL's notable returning defensive starters:

DL Newton (All Big 10 in 2022)
DL Randolph (All Big 10 3rd team)
LB Gabe Jacas (Freshman All-American, B1G HM)
LB Coleman (All-B1G HM)

In spite of this, the 2023 IL defense has looked terrible.  They have given up almost 500 yards per game in their first two contests.  With that said, I can't help but think it is just a matter of time before IL gets it together.

Still, Penn State will have to rely on their rookie QB in a hostile environment, as I expect IL to stack the box.  So far Allar he has done well, but IL has the talent to make him uncomfortable.

IL Offense

PSU will face an IL team that looks pretty suspect on offense.  IL's QB (Altmyer) has looked pretty good to me, but he just doesn't have much to work with.  IL ranks 93rd in passing offense, averaging just over 200 yards per game.  I doubt that Altmyer will have much success against the PSU secondary, and PSU will try to force IL into throwing the ball.  If this happens, it will likely result in another PSU blowout.

IL averages about 150 yards of rushing offense per game, which sounds pretty good.  However, Luke Altmyer is IL's leading rusher, and has almost 50% of Illinois's total rushing yards for the year.  I have not been impressed with the IL running backs.  PSU has shown two weaknesses on defense.  A running game between the tackles, and a weakness against scrambling QBs.  IL does not seem to have the running back or OLine talent to exploit the former.  However, Altmyer is mobile enough that he could cause Penn State some problems.

I'm thinking that IL will be better on defense than they have shown so far this year, and will give the PSU offense some problems.  PSU has a clear advantage on defense.

Penn State should win this game without too much drama.  However, IL has just enough talent to make me nervous. 

PSU 35
IL 10

Illinois defense was good.  In the parallel universe where Illinois’ QB takes care of the ball they get the win.

Illinois played 5 defensive lineman in this game, which was unexpected.  It caused problems.

Also, Penn State really missed Landon Tengwell, as IL future first round pick DT Newton could not be stopped.

PSU was missing one of their top wide receivers due to injury, and it showed.  3 drops, and twice wide receivers ran the wrong route.  It didn't help matters to have Newton in the backfield on every play, either.

PSU had 7 penalties for 70 yards, including a drive killer on 3rd on 2.  Without the penalty, PSU probably scores a touchdown and the game is out of reach.  Instead, Lambert-Smith commits a dead ball personal foul, and sets up 3rd and 17.  This leads to a blocked field goal (by Newton), a short field, and a subsequent IL touchdown.  Lots of dumb penalties in critical situations, and it kept IL in the game longer than they should have been.

I know IL surprised Penn State by playing 5 defensive lineman, but the running game was still pretty slow to get going.  The running backs only manged 93 yards. 

Still, PSU led 30-7 until a garbage time touchdown by IL.  As bad a day as the offense had, the defense caused 5 turnovers, and had 3 sacks.

Illinois might be the worst offensive team in the B1G. Oh wait, forgot about Iowa, who Penn State plays this week. 

Man the B1G West is bad bad.