| Michgigan State fans were pleasantly surprised to see their team ranked #3 in the initial CFP rankings. They were perhaps even more pleased to not be ranked #2. The random success of Purdue playing top 2 teams was well documented a couple weeks ago, after they upset then #2 Iowa. This series specifically has been marked by long runs of dominance, going back 50 years. From 1970-77, Michigan State won 7 of 8; then Purdue went 6-0-1 in the next seven. Michigan State answered by going 10-1-1 from 1985 til 1996. Joe Tiller flipped the series back, winning six of his first seven games in the series. Oddly the one loss was in November of 2000, when a mediocre Michigan State team routed #9 Purdue 30-10, to cost Purdue an outright Big Ten Championship. That may have been in response to Purdue upsetting Michigan State the prior year, costing the last Nick Saban team a Big Ten title. Mark Dantonio arrived in East Lansing in 2007, and since then, Michigan State has gone 8-0. That doesn't tell nearly the entire story though. In 2009, the Spartans had to come back from 11 down in the 4th against a bad Purdue team to get bowl eligible. The next year, #11 Michigan State erased a 15 point 4th quarter deficit against a 4-8 Purdue team, with a 22-3 4th quarter win. En route to a Big Ten title in 2013, Michigan State scored their first offensive touchdown with 8 minutes left, to win 14-0. In 2014, Purdue had the ball with the chance to tie # 8 Michigan State on their final possession, when Austin Appleby threw a pick six on the final possession. Again in 2015, #2 Michigan State led 21-0 at half, but Purdue had the ball down 24-21 in the final minute, in Spartan territory, just ouf field goal range, when Michigan State forced a turnover on downs. The last time these guys played, the Rocky Lombardi game in 2018, was actually the most "convincing" win of Michigan State's current eight game winning streak, 23-13. So, even though Purdue hasn't won since 2006, consider me very worried. As for the actual game, Michigan State absolutely needs to stay ahead of the sticks. Purdue's line is susceptible to the run, but they are a special kind of nasty against the pass. Michigan's edge rush gave the Spartan tackles all kinds of issues last week, and George Karlaftis is probably the only such player in the conversation with Aidan Hutchinson in the conference. It was part the Spartan pass protection, and part Peyton Thorne's belief in his own ability to dodge tacklers. Much like Hutchinson, Thorne is not going to evade Karlaftis. Jalen Nailor, who left the Michigan game, and had his hand in a cast, is likely still out. Receiver is probably the one position where Michigan State has depth, but the dropoff from #2 to #3 is huge. There are just a million guys in the running to be #3. Purdue should be able to focus on Reed, and if Michigan State isn't winning first down, they will lose. I think Kenneth Walker does enough that they don't. |
