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Topic: 24/7 Best Recruits Ever (since 2000)...

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OrangeAfroMan

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24/7 Best Recruits Ever (since 2000)...
« on: December 22, 2019, 06:27:18 PM »
I discovered they keep a running list of their all-time top recruits "ever" (since 2000).  I wanted to do a rundown of them, maybe by school, to sort of grade them out.  I was thinking of:
6 - All-Time Legend
5 - All-American season, great player
4 - Very good, all-conference, longtime starter
3 - Good enough to be a longtime starter
2 - Started some, maybe showed flashes, but a disappointment
1 - Played here and there, didn't do much - never held a job down
0 - Didn't really do anything/didn't see the field
.
I'd rate transfers by their careers, regardless of where it happened.  I'll do the "perfect" recruits first, then do a few different teams.  Maybe you guys could rate them better than I could.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 24/7 Best Recruits Ever (since 2000)...
« Reply #1 on: December 22, 2019, 06:35:28 PM »
1.0000 - perfect recruits
Jadeveon Clowney - S.Carolina - DE.......I'd give him a 5.
Robert Nkemdiche - Ole Miss - DE.........4.5
Rashan Gary - Michigan - DT.................4
Vince Young - Texas - QB......................6?  5.5?
Ernie Sims - Florida State - LB...............maxed out at a 4 or so, maybe even 3.5
.
0.9999
Ronald Powell - Florida - DE...................3.5, got hurt, never great
Trevor Lawrence - Clemson - QB.............already a 5, potentially a 6 if he wins another NC
.
0.9998
Dorial Green-Beckham - Missouri - WR.....4?  4.5?  Transfered.
Justin Fields - Georgia - QB.....................4.5 or 5 already for the Buckeyes, we'll see
D.J. Williams - Miami - LB.......................4.5 or 5, always a better prospect than producer
Brock Berlin - Florida - QB.......................3.5 or so, transferred to Miami, nothing special but played plenty
.
Hmmph, not a great lot, altogether.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Mdot21

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Re: 24/7 Best Recruits Ever (since 2000)...
« Reply #2 on: December 22, 2019, 06:52:29 PM »
1.0000 - perfect recruits
Jadeveon Clowney - S.Carolina - DE.......I'd give him a 5.
Robert Nkemdiche - Ole Miss - DE.........4.5
Rashan Gary - Michigan - DT.................4
Vince Young - Texas - QB......................6?  5.5?
Ernie Sims - Florida State - LB...............maxed out at a 4 or so, maybe even 3.5
.
0.9999
Ronald Powell - Florida - DE...................3.5, got hurt, never great
Trevor Lawrence - Clemson - QB.............already a 5, potentially a 6 if he wins another NC
.
0.9998
Dorial Green-Beckham - Missouri - WR.....4?  4.5?  Transfered.
Justin Fields - Georgia - QB.....................4.5 or 5 already for the Buckeyes, we'll see
D.J. Williams - Miami - LB.......................4.5 or 5, always a better prospect than producer
Brock Berlin - Florida - QB.......................3.5 or so, transferred to Miami, nothing special but played plenty
.
Hmmph, not a great lot, altogether. 

Not sure how Nkemdiche is a 4.5 and Gary a 4. I'd probably have them both at 4.5. Rest of your list looks right to me. I'd probably have DGB at 3.5. He was a bit of a flop considering the hype. I'd bump Fields to 5* after that season he just had. 40 TD passes to 1 INT. Are you kidding me?

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 24/7 Best Recruits Ever (since 2000)...
« Reply #3 on: December 22, 2019, 07:18:29 PM »
FSU
I'll do FSU, because I know a bit about them and no one else here cares about 'em.
I'm also chopping off some decimal places, because 0.9982 is stupid.  It'll be 982.
.
1000 Ernie Sims (see above)
994 - Mario Edwards - DT............3 really, always awaited him to be great, it never came
992 - Lorenzo Booker - RB...........3.5?  Was supposed to be a fast stud...maybe a 4?  3.5 imo
984 - Cam Akers - RB..................4 for sure, but has had a crap OL, should be a 5 or so, for real
982 - Derwin James - S................5, solid 5 - high draft pick and all - met expectations
982 - Travis Johnson - DE.............3?  Definitely started plenty and maybe had injuries, not sure
980 - Chris Davis - ATH................3.5 I guess.  Showed flashes, but didn't earn any real accolades
980 - Fred Rouse - WR.................ton of hype, never did much.  I'd say a 2 or 2.5.
977 - Karlos Williams - S..............wound up sharing time at RB, so a 2.5.
977 - Myron Rolle - S..................good player, played a lot, 3.5 or 4 maybe (not sure).
974 - Jacobbi McDaniel - DT.........never heard of him, not even sure he played much.  1.5 I guess.
.
So that's their 10 highest-rated recruits since 2000.  One 5-rated guy, one or two 4s.  Idk if this is good, bad, or average.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 24/7 Best Recruits Ever (since 2000)...
« Reply #4 on: December 22, 2019, 07:31:56 PM »
Now I'll do a B1G team, to get someone riled up with my ignorance!
Ha!
Errr, the pickin's are slim outside of UM and OSU.  Maybe I'll go wtih ND.....
988 - Jimmy Clausen - QB.................4 or 4.5?  I'd go with 4, personally. 
987 - Jaylon Smith - LB....................is this the guy that got hurt?  4.5-5 or so.  He was really good.
977 - Manti Te'o - LB........................5, and you could push it to 5.5 with the fake girlfriend thing if you really wanted, lol
964 - Sam Young - T.........................3, started forever but couldn't stay at left tackle, low draft pick
947 - Aaron Lynch - DE.....................3.5 or 4, played well, transferred to USF, got drafted
jeez, having to dig a lot deeper than with FSU
wow, found Joe Mauer (longtime Twins catcher)
Feels like I've scrolled past 40 more FSU guys, looking for 10 for the Irish....
914 - Michael Floyd - WR..................4.5 maybe?  He was really good, for sure.
Okay, I'm tired of scrolling, ND sucks.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 24/7 Best Recruits Ever (since 2000)...
« Reply #5 on: December 22, 2019, 07:33:43 PM »
Fun find:
the QB rated just head of Tim Tebow?  MSU's Jeff Smoker!  Just behind?  JT Daniels - that USC kid that just got replaced.
Recruiting is fun!
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Mdot21

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Re: 24/7 Best Recruits Ever (since 2000)...
« Reply #6 on: December 22, 2019, 07:52:23 PM »
Fun find:
the QB rated just head of Tim Tebow?  MSU's Jeff Smoker!  Just behind?  JT Daniels - that USC kid that just got replaced.
Recruiting is fun!
Saban was recruiting at an elite level back at MSU. Some of those classes he landed were extremely highly rated. Charles Rogers was the #1 player in HS. TJ Duckett, Julian Peterson, and Plaxico were also all big-time 5* recruits. Saban was able to recruit at a high level even then. I think Smoker and Rogers both committed to MSU before Saban re-signed abruptly to take the LSU job. Sparty naming Bobby Williams head coach helped them keep Smoker and Rogers.

Smoker and Rogers both would've been a lot better than they were as players if not for drug problems.

bayareabadger

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Re: 24/7 Best Recruits Ever (since 2000)...
« Reply #7 on: December 22, 2019, 08:24:59 PM »
My assumption is to a degree any list like this is going to be more disappointing than not because there's a large number of recruits (even .999 ones) and a really small number of 6s and a relatively small number of 5s. 

Like Clowney was a two-time first-team All-American and sixth-place Heisman finisher as a DL and that in some ways feels a tad disappointing (I think he should be a 5.5, but splitting hairs).

So anyway, there aren't so few 5s and 6s and so few guys in those echelons, the crossover isn't gonna be that high. I kind of feel like when you get a dude that good, you still kind of expect a 4.5, maybe a 5 in a few cases. 

I also think there's maybe a higher dummy coefficient when it comes to kids that highly rated. They're by nature super talented, which means the game came easy, which often has downsides. It's a paradox. A certain percent of kids will fight harder if they're low-rated but rest easy if they're high rated, in essence meaning the rating cannot be correct. 

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 24/7 Best Recruits Ever (since 2000)...
« Reply #8 on: December 22, 2019, 08:29:37 PM »
Sure, I don't think anyone is expecting these high recruits to average a 5 or anything.  Yet at the same time, that's what you want from each individual player, lol.  I'm just doing this because I know Florida's 5* kids very often don't pan out.  We just had a OL finish his career last year, and he was one of these best of the best recruits....he played 3 different positions and got some borderline 1st/2nd team all-SEC.  That's not good enough.
.
But yeah, if your 5* kids average that career, you'd probably have to take it.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: 24/7 Best Recruits Ever (since 2000)...
« Reply #9 on: December 23, 2019, 10:15:08 AM »
I think  many expect some kid who dominated in HS to do the same in CFB, which obviously is not realistic in many cases.  A five state kid should contribute more often than a 4 or a 3.  A five star recruit almost has nowhere to go but down, or staying even.  So, the odds are he will somewhat disappoint.  A four star can excel and go up, and a 3 can do it even more, while the vast majority of 3s end up not making a name for themselves.

We recall the 3s who excelled because they excelled and forget the vast majority who perhaps played some here and there.

CWSooner

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Re: 24/7 Best Recruits Ever (since 2000)...
« Reply #10 on: December 23, 2019, 10:31:49 AM »
1.0000 - perfect recruits
What is your source for that ranking, OAM?
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OrangeAfroMan

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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

fezzador

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Re: 24/7 Best Recruits Ever (since 2000)...
« Reply #12 on: December 23, 2019, 11:39:22 AM »
OAM, out of curiosity, what's your criteria for being an "all time legend"?  The most obvious ones I can think of are Herschel Walker, Barry Sanders, and Bo Jackson (I'd go so far as to say that if such a thing existed, Walker and Jackson would have been 6-star recruits) but really nobody since the 2000 class touches those guys.  For offensive players, a Heisman should warrant an automatic 6.

Did you dock Clowney for his school choice?  He absolutely was a giant among men and truly had the next-level goods, but outside of "The Hit" against Michigan, he might have flown a bit under the radar because he didn't play for a team like Alabama or Ohio State.  The SC teams he played for were good, but none were serious NC-caliber teams.  I'd personally give him an extra half point for "The Hit" alone.




FearlessF

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Re: 24/7 Best Recruits Ever (since 2000)...
« Reply #13 on: December 23, 2019, 12:49:37 PM »
Huskers had one kid in the top 600 = Marlon Lucky - solid starter and a star on that team his jr and sr season, but nothing special

3 including Lucky in the top 800, the mother 2 weren't even solid starters

Highest rated recruit this season, OL from Kansas would fall in about 855

my buddies from Kansas tell he he's soft and won't amount to anything

Looking at this list, Iowa and Michigan have recruited much better than NEbraska

Ndamukong Suh - 0.9797 - 48th in the nation that season -  #867 - the first superstar for the Huskers
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