#21 Michigan (2-1) at Nebraska (3-0) Game Week

[FearlessF]

Analytics Preview: Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Michigan Wolverines
Big Ten play starts with a big game for the Huskers.
Eric Hess | 3 Hours Ago


https://www.si.com/college/nebraska/football/analytics-preview-nebraska-cornhuskers-vs-michigan-wolverines-2025-big-ten?fbclid=IwY2xjawM6OzdleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHrJsK56-MMqx0LFikoS7MPUoLDZIJ7Mwh9T8V7X5NgiXmMkIXlJfwtulyWE4_aem_hGwCgjoc0zIlsVBul6Y1Pw

Underwood is an exciting quarterback and a future star in college football. He’s got a skill set to exploit the Blackshirts’ vulnerabilities. However, he’s still a young quarterback entering a challenging environment. This should be an evenly matched game, with both teams struggling at times. However, I think Underwood makes a critical mistake while Nebraska plays clean football. I think the final scoreboard gives the Huskers a comfortable 27-17 win, in a game that’s played much tighter than the final score indicates. 

[FearlessF]

I came up with a single number to say, how reliable can we trust your first three games? How much can we say, “hey, these are just random variants,” or “no, we're pretty confident that you are who you are and what you've shown on the field?” So, for Florida, it was like a 0.87% chance that they would get those results randomly. They're bad. They're overpriced by the market. They're bad.

But looking at Nebraska and looking at Michigan, Nebraska, their probability of their result being due to randomness was 23.8%. So that's a high level of uncertainty. That's saying about a quarter of the time, if you were just flipping a coin for those three games, you'd win three, right? And so with Nebraska, we're saying, “Ah, we're not actually sure that their results aren't just variants or that they've actually shown me something.”

Whereas with Michigan, there's a 1.9 % chance that their results would be due to variance. So we're saying, “Oh, Michigan is actually better.” Like they're actually better than what we've seen, what we thought, and what the market priced them.

So that's something I'm watching going into this is kind of understanding at this point, I actually trust Michigan a little bit more than I trust Nebraska just because there's a lot more uncertainty around Nebraska's performances. That being said, based on the preseason priors, I do have this very, very close. I do have Nebraska favored 51%. It's such a close toss-up that home-field advantage is making the decision here.





https://youtu.be/wPTe-I1W80Y

[FearlessF]

Prediction / Predictor

Nebraska 23-17 / Kaleb Henry

Nebraska 24-21 / Geoff Exstrom

Nebraska 30-28 / Josh Peterson

Nebraska 27-23 / Spencer Schubert

Nebraska 28-23 / Jeremy Pernell

Nebraska 31-28 / ThotDoc

Michigan 27-24 / Matt McMaster

Michigan 28-24 / Mike Cavallo

Nebraska 24-21 / Tad Stryker

Nebraska 27-17 / Eric Hess

Michigan 29-27 / Cole Stukenholtz

Nebraska 31-27 / Jan Mudder

Nebraska 28-24 / Jay Stockwell

Nebraska 27-24 / Bob Frady

Nebraska 31-28 / David Max

Michigan 31-27 / Chris Fort

Nebraska 30-20 / Jared Hall

Michigan 34-24 / Mike Delaware

Nebraska 27-24 / Kyle Byers

[Mdot21]

I came up with a single number to say, how reliable can we trust your first three games? How much can we say, “hey, these are just random variants,” or “no, we're pretty confident that you are who you are and what you've shown on the field?” So, for Florida, it was like a 0.87% chance that they would get those results randomly. They're bad. They're overpriced by the market. They're bad.

But looking at Nebraska and looking at Michigan, Nebraska, their probability of their result being due to randomness was 23.8%. So that's a high level of uncertainty. That's saying about a quarter of the time, if you were just flipping a coin for those three games, you'd win three, right? And so with Nebraska, we're saying, “Ah, we're not actually sure that their results aren't just variants or that they've actually shown me something.”

Whereas with Michigan, there's a 1.9 % chance that their results would be due to variance. So we're saying, “Oh, Michigan is actually better.” Like they're actually better than what we've seen, what we thought, and what the market priced them.

So that's something I'm watching going into this is kind of understanding at this point, I actually trust Michigan a little bit more than I trust Nebraska just because there's a lot more uncertainty around Nebraska's performances. That being said, based on the preseason priors, I do have this very, very close. I do have Nebraska favored 51%. It's such a close toss-up that home-field advantage is making the decision here.





https://youtu.be/wPTe-I1W80Y

math nerds that don't know shit about football going to be math nerds.

game will come down to two things.

a) turnovers. duh. the team that takes care of the football- typically wins.

AND

b) can Nebraska stop Michigan's run game. I have serious doubts about that- especially if the training wheels are taken off and Bryce Underwood is allowed to run the football. Nebraska doesn't have a single guy in the two deep 300 lbs or more on the DL, Cinci QB torched them on the ground and Cinci had a 70% success rate rushing the football vs them, they are 85th in the country against the run on defense through 3 games- and this is playing Cincinnati, Akron- maybe the very worst team in the entire FBS, and another FCS tomato can that I've never even heard of called Houston Baptist Bible Buttfuckers Christian School for the Blind, Deaf, & Dumb. Call me crazy but Michigan's QB is going to be vastly more talented and athletic than any of those 3 schools, Michigan's RB duo of Justice Haynes & Jordan Marshall is going to be vastly more talented and athletic than any of those 3 schools, and Michigan's OL is probably going to be a good step up to any of those 3 schools.

[FearlessF]

unfortunately, I agree

well, except for the Baptist Bible stuff

[Mdot21]

how mobile is Dylan Raiola? Michigan should've had John Mateer dead to rights for TFL's and sacks so many time and he such an elusive explosive athlete he Houdini'd out of that shit time and time again. 

also: will Nebraska be able to run the ball on Michigan with consistent success?

Mateer had 19 carries for 80 yards on the ground against Michigan. He was basically OU's entire rush offense. Their RB's had 21 carries for 58 yards. Not exactly great. if Nebraska can't run the ball between the tackles with the backs- is Raiola capable of making rush yards with his legs like Mateer? call me crazy but Dylan Raiola looks pretty slow and not that athletic, more of a big armed pocket passer.

[FearlessF]

Riaola can run a little

he's fast enuff to get 15-20 yards on a scramble broken play - that's all the coaches want out of him - take the easy first down with your feet if the receiver isn't open
he's not elusive - not going to juke a safety - not going to run over a corner - not going to out run a LB

Husker running game with Emmett Johnson - was good in the 1st half vs Cincy, not so much in the 2nd half.  Emmett runs hard.
Oline is better than last year, good enuff to be productive vs Michigan?  That's the question - I have doubts

I think they will need to set up the run with the pass.

[SuperMario]

Analytics Preview: Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Michigan Wolverines
Big Ten play starts with a big game for the Huskers.
Eric Hess | 3 Hours Ago


https://www.si.com/college/nebraska/football/analytics-preview-nebraska-cornhuskers-vs-michigan-wolverines-2025-big-ten?fbclid=IwY2xjawM6OzdleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHrJsK56-MMqx0LFikoS7MPUoLDZIJ7Mwh9T8V7X5NgiXmMkIXlJfwtulyWE4_aem_hGwCgjoc0zIlsVBul6Y1Pw

Underwood is an exciting quarterback and a future star in college football. He’s got a skill set to exploit the Blackshirts’ vulnerabilities. However, he’s still a young quarterback entering a challenging environment. This should be an evenly matched game, with both teams struggling at times. However, I think Underwood makes a critical mistake while Nebraska plays clean football. I think the final scoreboard gives the Huskers a comfortable 27-17 win, in a game that’s played much tighter than the final score indicates.

I guess I just don't see it. Cincinnati was driving in the final minute with a chance to tie the game and the qb made a very stupid decision. Maybe Cincy is more talented than I'm giving them credit for, but I really don't see the Nebraska defense holding Michigan to 17. The coaching staff got a full view of how to use Underwood this past week and were way too conservative against Oklahoma.  So maybe he takes more chances and makes a few mistakes and it keeps the scoring low, but I think Nebraska is going to need to put up far more than 17 to win. 

[Mdot21]

Riaola can run a little

he's fast enuff to get 15-20 yards on a scramble broken play - that's all the coaches want out of him - take the easy first down with your feet if the receiver isn't open
he's not elusive - not going to juke a safety - not going to run over a corner - not going to out run a LB

Husker running game with Emmett Johnson - was good in the 1st half vs Cincy, not so much in the 2nd half.  Emmett runs hard.
Oline is better than last year, good enuff to be productive vs Michigan?  That's the question - I have doubts

I think they will need to set up the run with the pass.

Michigan front 7 is very strong, but secondary is susceptible a bit at CB. 

Jyaire Hill bites on every double move like a rookie still and gets called for PI cause he's too handsy and other starting corner Zeke Berry is banged up playing through injury. Other CBs in the rotation Jojo Edmons, Jayden Sanders, and Shamari Earls are RS and True Frosh. CB is definitely the weak spot of that defense right now.

[Mdot21]

if I'm Biff Poggi number one thing I'm harping on Chip Lindsey is we need heavy QB run calls this game- want to see at least 4-5 designed QB run calls, bunch of read option calls where Bryce has the opportunity to pull it if edge defender crashes down, and tell Bryce on deep patterns if option 1 or 2 is not there you're going to have ton of space so just pull it and run and go rip off a 15-20+ yard gain every time until you force Nebraska to adjust, then when they adjust run the ball down their throats with the RBs.

Need to try to go for 250+ yards rushing as a team and let Bryce run wild and free.

I have a fever, and the only prescription is more: 


https://twitter.com/ClutchPoints/status/1966907833930149954

[FearlessF]

Blackshirts D-coordinator has his work cutout - hopefully, he passes the test

The pass defense on the back end has been solid

[MrNubbz]

Urbz is the best guy in the business breaking down the film....a football genius.

No denying that,know who else IMHO was good was Dan Mullen. Don't know if you remember ESPN aired a Coaches' Room broadcast, featuring analysts including Mullen & Mike Riley, for the inaugural College Football Playoff National Championship game on January 2015.Excellent breakdowns Riley gave surprising insight also in to what the Ducks would be running as he coached Ore.St for 14 seasons.He nailed their calls quite a few times, those two were so much better than listening to that gold bricker herbie schmucking it up

[MrNubbz]

Akron- maybe the very worst team in the entire FBS

Kent St would like a word with you........GO FLASHES

[FearlessF]

well, at least Riley was good for something